$NQ #NQ #Elliott Wave #trading setup #a-b-c pullback Bulls did not allow for one more push lower that would perfectly complete the (a)-(b)-(c) down move off the July’23 high. Bulls are driven by Fear Missing Out because they expect another rally in a wave ( v ) up: Its possible that wave (iv) down bottomed … Read more
$ES #ES #trading setup #Elliott Wave #a-b-c down In my Sunday weekend macro update we correctly predicted a move down that was supposed to follow the Friday’s rally. The uncertainty we currently face is whether that move down will be an impulsive one to make a new lower low (see the bearish SPX chart). Or, … Read more
$SPX #S&P500 #macro #weekly #weekend In this weekend update I will be updating scenarios we discussed in details the previous Sunday (Part I: The Bearish Macro and Part II: The Bullish Macro). Last week S&P hit the upper edge of the Green Box and we got an immediate bullish reaction. Bulls consider the (a)- (b) … Read more
$ES #ES #trading-setup #ElliottWave #a-b-c pullback This morning we correctly predicted a pre-market drop, followed by a bullish reversal and the rally targeting 4,338: The target has been hit and its time to zoom-out to see where we are: I think this short squeeze rally will complete the first -a-b-c- up off the low that … Read more
$ES #ES #trading setup #RunningFlat ES made a higher high overnight and by doing that it set the stage for playing a bullish Running Flat structure: The Running Flat is a structure where the subwave -b- up (the rally that topped overnight) makes a higher high despite being a corrective wave, and the final push … Read more
$NQ #NQ #trading setup #Elliott Wave #triangle NQ-mini has been a week in a directionless consolidation. When price gets stuck in a range we should immediately zoom-out and check the macro wave count. Let’s starts form a Bullish Macro scenario. Bulls argue that the move up off the October’22 low has been following a five … Read more
$ES $NQ #Running Flat #Very Bearish Scenario Perm bears are focused on the same very bearish scenario in $ES and $NQ. As long a bears hold ES under the key resistance 4,306.80 they keep alive a very bearish scenario where this weak rally completes a corrective -a- up, -b- down. -c- up structure of wave … Read more
$ES #trading setup #bullish reversal This morning I correctly predicted a pullback after the pre-market rally. After that pullback bulls got a charged Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern, a reliable bullish reversal setup: We can measure the height of that structure, then project that high up from the neckline and get the target for a … Read more
$ES #ES #trading setup #Elliott Wave In my afternoon update yesterday I noted that ES was going to make another push down and that drop would be th efinal squiggle of the whole move down: Overnight bears pushed ES-mini down into the green box and that was the final move that made them exhausted. Bulls … Read more
$SPX $ES #trading setup In my Weekend Update (Part I and Part II) posted on Sunday I explained that I expected 4,195 to be the target for another push lower in S&P 500 cash index. Today we got a push down that has approached the target: Upon completion of that decline in a subwave -c- … Read more
$ES #ES #trading setup #Head and Shoulders We got another bearish Head and Shoulders pattern Break under the upper trend line (the neckline) would open the door for decline down to 4,226 (the lower trend line). If you come back to the Weekend Report (Part I and Part II) posted on Sunday, you will see … Read more
$ES #ES #trading setup #Elliott Wave #a-b-c pullback This is a quick intraday update. It has been a slow leaking day today. Bulls had a couple of good long setups today and they failed to start a rally. However, as long as they hold ES over 4,289 they keep alive that bullish setup to ride … Read more
$NQ #NQ #trading setup #Elliott Wave Under the Macro Bearish scenario bulls tested the Red Box and got rejected: That scenario allows bears to keep pushing lower in a wave v down. See the path we discussed the last week. My main doubt about that bearish scenario is that a normal wave iv up has … Read more
$SPX #SPX #trading setup #Elliott Wave #macro #weekly The Bullish scenario assumes that S&P made a bottom of a corrective wave ( 4 ) in October 2022. Then the move up off the Oct’22 low it has been moving up in an impulsive wave (A) of (5) that targets to re-test the all-time high made … Read more
$SPX #S&P #Macro Update #Elliott Wave Let’s update our two alternative macro scenarios. We will be looking at S&P 500 cash index. ( I ) The Bearish Macro Scenario: Several important things you should take away from this chart: (i) This scenario is based on assumption that off the Jan’22 top we should get a … Read more
$ES #es-mini #trading setup #ElliottWave This morning I correctly predicted a pullback off the morning highs. I shared two bearish paths. The red path argued that bulls would stop decline at 4,322 Under that path bulls got a setup to produce an a-b-c move up to the Red Target box early next week. That wave … Read more
$NQ #NQ #trading setup In my previous update “Both Scenarios Allow Bulls To Push Higher” I correctly predicted a corrective bounce: I shared two scenarios that argues for a move up of different magnitude: The bearishscenario (i) argued for a pullback to 15,000: This is how that chart looks like now: Under the bearish scenario … Read more
$ES #ES #trading setup #Elliott Wave This morning ES-mini is hitting the red Box: There are two potential micro paths: The simple scenario is teh red one. We can get an a-b-c or w-x-y overlapping move down in a corrective wave -b-. Alternatively, if instead of a break under 4,350 we will get a flat … Read more
$ES #ES #trading setup #Elliott wave Yesterday I outlined an alternative bearish scenario that argues for the final plunge either today or tomorrow: Bulls can invalidate that scenario. They simply need to violate the first resistance 4,336.50. In fact bulls have a setup for that move higher: The key support for that bullish scenario is … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #trading setup The base case is that bulls produce a bigger bounce to the intersection of two trend lines: But a repeating pattern is that a bearish month often ends making the lower low. In addition this coming Friday we will get a rare combination of the full moon and expiration of a … Read more
$NQ #NQ #trading setup #Elliott Wave Today NQ tested a strong support at 14,628. That was the June 2023 low. At 1-29 PM EST I warned subscribers of my trading chat room: “NQ has finally tested the support of the Jun’23 low = 14,628. Algos can trigger a long “failed breakdown” setup by reclaiming that … Read more
$ES #ES #trading setup #Elliott wave I kept repeating that 4,312 is the target for the move down: Yesterday I concluded: “That (w)-(x)-(y) structure may attempt to bottom at 4,312.”. Today ES-mini dropped and tagged the target: This drop can extend down to 4,300. But here bulls are sitting on a good setup for at … Read more
$NQ #NQ #trading setup #Elliott Wave Ideally bulls should produce one more push higher in a subwave c of a corrective wave iv up: If we get that move up in a subwave c of wave iv up that would complete the a-b-c up corrective structure of a corrective wave iv up followed by another … Read more
$ES #ES #trading setup #Elliott Wave We closed last week with a short setup that allowed bears to push ES-mini down to 4,312. On Monday morning ES dropped down to 4,338.25 and produced a corrective bounce. Before we look at a micro structure lets have a look at a 60 min chart: We should always … Read more
$NQ #NQ #trading setup #Elliott Wave NQ is approaching a very strong confluence of two levels: Let’s dive deeper and check a 120 min chart: On the 120 min chart I highlighted important support levels with green arrows. 14,744 – 14,710 is a strong support that should produce at least a bounce. Ideally this is … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #trading setup #Head and Shoulders Last week ES-mini futures broke under the important support, the green band 4,415 – 4,400: That green band 4,415-4,400 was a critical support, the neckline of a huge bearish reversal Head and Shoulders pattern. We can see that the neckline 4,400- 4,415 turned from support into a resistance. … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #trading setup #Elliott Wave Yesterday in my evening report I concluded that ES-mini hit an important support at 4,370 and should produce a bullish bounce on Friday: “The EMA 21 Weekly calculated based on lows is located at 4,391. My base case scenario is that bulls will try to close a week tomorrow … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #trading setup #extension #wave 3 down #Elliott Wave Yesterday ES-mini broken under an important support 4,462 and that triggered a breakdown scenario. There are three key ideas behind that wave count / scenario. First, we are getting an A-B-C move down off the high made in late July 2023. Second, the second leg … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #trading setup #Elliott Wave #invalidation This morning I shared my expectation for an a-b-c move up targeting 4,540: ES-mini followed the path nicely until the press conference of the Chairman Powell that started at 2-30 PM EST. Specifically, the morning rally stalled right under the red box and was followed by a decline … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #trading setup #Elliott Wave #trading strategy #trading plan Yesterday I posted a “spaghetti” chart showing three potential paths: ES has been squeezed in between of two contracting trend lines for weeks. That consolidation can break out of that contracting range in ANY direction, either up, or down. Note that when price follows a … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #trading setup This morning I posted an update arguing for another push lower to test the Green Box: This is how that chart looks like now: As a result, bulls get a clean long setup, a flat a down, -b- up, -c- down consolidation. This morning I posted a “spaghetti” model that argued … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #trading setup #Elliott Wave Meteorologists use the term “spaghetti models” to show different paths for the cone of a hurricane. Its just a good way to visualize results of multi scenario analysis. Let’s start from the big picture: The big picture is pretty clear. Everyone in the market watches that huge bearish reversal … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #trading setup ES just bounced up to the same macro red supply zone in a clean a-b-c up micro structure: Ideally I would like to get another push down to test the greem macro demand zone. On a tick bar chart you can see a corrective (a)-(b)-(c) up structure behind that bounce:\
$ES #ES-mini #trading setup #Elliott Wave #weekly #macro #Month Opening Range Last week bulls failed to break over the immediate resistance at 8 EMA weekly (calculated based on highs) = 4,476.50: The closest support is 4,461.60 where SMA 20 weekly is located. In this macro update we will review three scenarios. (1) The Bullish scenario: … Read more
$NQ #NQ #trading setup Yesterday I posted a clean short -i- down,. -ii- up setup: This is how that chart looks like now: Under that scenario bears can keep pushing lower down to 15,190 – 15,000.
$ES $SPX #ES-mini futures #trading setup #Daily On Thursday bulls broke out over the red supply zone: So far that move up looks like a clean corrective three wave up structure we count as w-x-y. But if bulls push over 4,560 that bearish scenario will most likely get invalidated… To get back in play bears … Read more
$NQ #NQ #trading setup #Daily #Macro We still have two alternative very different macro scenarios: NQ dropped to the green demand zone in mid August and then popped to into the red resistance band. And it got stuck there. Under the red bearish count that test of the red supply zone was supposed to be … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #trading setup ES-mini tested support of that green trend line 10 times: By now that support has been exhausted and another bears’ attack should be able to break it. If we zoom-in to a 15 min chart we can see a -i- down. -ii- up short setup: To invalidate that bearish setup bulls … Read more
$ES #ES #trading setup #Elliott Wave #trading strategy #acceleration The Weekly chart of ES-mini looks bullish, no doubts about that: It is bullish because ES is sitting at support of 8 EMA Weekly = 4,517. It is bullish because EMA 8 weekly is located over 21 EMA weekly and the EMA 21 weekly (the blue … Read more
$NQ #NQ-mini #trading setup #Elliott Wave #trading setup $NQ is at the critical intersection in between of the blue bullish and red bearish scenarios: As long as bears hold NQ under the critical resistance 15,783 bears will have a short -i- down, -ii- up setup that allows them to push NQ down to 500 DMA … Read more