The Bearish Daily count argues that the (a)-(b)-(c) up bounce off the October low got completed and bears have a setup to start another leg down: If we zoom in to 240 min chart we can see that bears have a clean setup for decline in subwave c down targeting…...
An FLD (or future line of demarcation) is an instrument suggested by J.M.Hurst. In essence its just High, Low, Close displaced by n bars. I use two periods, 8 and 21. The weekly chart of DJIA shown below showing the high price displaced by 8 bars suggests it can top…...
THE WEEKEND MACRO REPORT Off the Top made in Nov’21 RTY has been following a large corrective structure called “3-3-3” or the Double Three: First look at the first three wave down move labelled (W) down (bottomed in May 2022). Then look at a tricky three wave up bounce labelled…...
The rally off the October low has a clean (a) – (b) -(c) up corrective structure: NQ spiked to 50% retracement applied to the preceding decline labelled with red letter A and got rejected. Under that count this pullback should be followed by another five wave down or three wave…...
We can count the rally off the Sep 22 low as a Triple Three corrective structure: The Triple Three is a complex corrective structure that is a combination of three simple a-b-c structures interconnected by two technical aves labelled as (x) and (xx). Note the rally stopped right at 66.7%…...
Crude Oil has completed a long -i- up, -ii- down setup for a new rally: Note it looks like an Inverse Head and Shoulders! Target 1 = 97.00 Target 2 = 100.00… This content is for Monthly Plan, Quarterly Plan, and Annual Plan members only.Login Join Now...
The morning a release of a better than expected PPI data triggered a spike up in NQ-mini: NQ spiked to the weekly resistance:12,126 – 12,154. That move up completes the corrective looking (a)-(b)-(c) up structure off the October low. I expect bears to step in and turn NQ down. Support…...
The morning spike triggered by better than expected PPI data pushed ES-mini higher: That rally may tag 4,060sh or even stretch to 200 MA on Daily that currently stands at 4,087. But upon completion of that spike at the Red Target box I expect a bearish reversal and a corrective…...
I have just published a recording of my live presentation at on-line “Friendsgiving 2022 Conference” that held today on Nov 14th. In the video I share my macro scenarios for ES-mini, NQ-mini, Dow-mini, Bitcoin and GDX. This is the full list of topics discussed: 1:35 The five wave up pattern…...
We can count five micro waves behind that rally off the October low: I count that five wave up rally as the final subwave C of a corrective wave (B) up: Bulls can push YM mini futures a bit higher into the Red Box but every move up at this…...
I still believe this rally is a corrective three wave bounce in wave B up. Below I will share with you two most probable path for this rally to complete. (1) Scenario 1: The most painful for bulls: Under the scenario 1 the spiky move up triggered by Consumer Price…...
The most tricky corrective pattern is the Expanding Triangle. It’s barely possible to identify it until the very last moment when it is about to get completed. That structure is composed of five subwaves labelled a-b-c-d-e and every subwave has a clean subdivision into three small waves: That wave count…...
I can make a case that TSLA made a major bottom: Even if we get a corrective A-B-C up bounce, it can erase 50% of the decline…. This content is for Monthly Plan, Quarterly Plan, and Annual Plan members only.Login Join Now...
FOMC, CPI and NFP days normally bring crazy volatility. Sometimes unexpected data triggers very strong directional moves. Today was not something unusual in terms of strength and size of a move. We got a very similar strong rally in August and it was driven by Consumer Price Index data as…...
Decline in Crude oil has tagged the Green Box, a minimum required target for subwave -c-, at a 76.4% extension of subwave -a- down: In Running Flat corrective structures that is the standard target for subwave -c- down. It is possible that Crude turns up from here. However, its equally…...
Note how important that June low level became. This is exactly where bulls failed yesterday. As long as Bears hold NQ under 11,850 down will remain teh path of te least resistance. In contrast, a break back over 11,850 would be a strong signal to exit shorts and consider going…...
I called the previous update posted yesterday: “A Break Under 1,800 Would Trigger A 100+ Point Drop”. Today RTY dropped under support 1,800, then came back up to re-test it from above. Bulls failed to reclaim that support and RTY made another move down: That decline can be counted as…...
A triangle corrective pattern in DXY (USD index) looks having completed: Bulls have a decent setup to start pushing USD index higher again towards 117 – 119.50. That is a bad news for equities and precious metals that are normally inversely correlated to USD…. This content is for Monthly Plan,...
That November move up looks like a corrective pullback and is shaped as an ascending bearish flag: I count that move up as a subwave -b- up setting up for another leg down in subwave -c- down. A safe approach to trade that move would be to wait until bears…...
The majority of traders who use Elliott Wave theory continues to expect ES-mini to start a very strong decline: That super bearish scenario is a feasible scenario indeed. There is one more path to a lower low that also makes sense: Under that Scenario 2 ES-mini may drop to 3,570…...
In that update I will not show you any bullish scenarios. Let me explain why: Note those three (a) up, (b) down, (c) up structures look almost identical! That clean (a)-(b)-(c) structure with elongated (c) up is the main hallmark of a corrective structure. Each of them started from a…...
We continue to follow two bearish structures of a large pullback off the top made in November 2021: (1) the Very Bearish Scenario: The Very Bearish scenario considers the move down off the all time high made in Nov’21 as a simple (A)-(B)-(C) down corrective structure where wave (C) is…...
Let’s start from an alternative bullish macro scenario: As long as bulls manage to hold NQ over 10,484 they can pray on that bullish (i) up, (ii) down structure that can deliver a 1,100 point bear market rally targeting 12,880. Note that even under that bullish alt scenario this rally…...
RTY-mini has been consolidating on Thursday after the strong decline, a reaction to the bearish statements of the FED Chairman on Wednesday: That flat and shallow a-b-c up consolidation is setting the stage for another leg down targeting to retest September-October Double Bottom made at 1,640. Remember, price does not…...
In my previous update I noted that if we apply Gann’s 45 day cycle we may expect RTY to top on Oct 31st. It did top on Nov the 1st! As you can see on the chart, RTY topped in my red target box. Please check my previous update. Now…...
I have two bearish macro scenarios on my table. (1) The Bearish Scenario 1 considers the October rally as a corrective bounce in subwave C of wave 4 up: That rally is shaped as an ascending bearish wedge. It should be followed by a strong impulsive decline in subwave A…...
RTY-mini futures stretched higher overnight and tagged the upper edge of the ascending bearish looking wedge: RTY has made enough waves to complete a corrective (w)-(x)-(y) up structure. It hit the upper edge of the Red Target box pre-market. Bears need to break under the lower blue trend line to…...
This A up, B down, C up consolidation that started at the end of September looks kike a corrective wave 4 up: If we zoom-in to 30 min chart we could make a micro count that fits that macro: Under the micro we can see ES-mini stretching higher to make…...
Off the all time high made in Niov’21, Russell has been leaking down in a complex Double Three structure labelled (W) down, (X) up, (Y) down structure: Each of those waves has to be composed of three waves of one degree lower. (W) down was composed of W down, X…...
Bears have tested the support 18,540 (see the blue line) six or seven times. So far it has held but that support is no longer strong. In the vast majority of cases a bounce of such a support that got tested so many times creates a bulls’ trap setup, a…...
1,860 has been the target for this move up. It is the confluence of fibs: – 138.2% ext of wave -a- up, and – 176.4% ext of a micro wave i up of -c- up. So far this move up has been following a clearly corrective (w) up, (x) down,…...
Bad report from AMZN crushed NQ but ES-mini has held over upward sloped 200 MA on 60 min chart (see the pink line): That bullish micro wave count allows bulls to produce one more rally in subwave -c- of wave (Y) up targeting 3,990 – 4,020. However, we have two…...
NQ-mini keeps following the bearish wave count: Under that scenario NQ completed an A up, B down, C up structure of wave 4 up and started another A-B-C down structure of wave 5 down targeting 9,800…. This content is for Monthly Plan, Quarterly Plan, and Annual Plan members only.Login Join...
Crude keeps following the bullish wave count nicely: In the previous update I pointed you to the bullish -i- up, -ii- down long trading setup. Target 1 = 94.11, target 2 = 97.96. Protective stop is 81.30… This content is for Monthly Plan, Quarterly Plan, and Annual Plan members only.Login...
MACRO UPDATE OF @YM – E-mini Dow futures Dow futures has been following a complex corrective pattern called Double Three or “3-3-3”: That pattern is composed of three large waves (W) down, (X) up and (Y) down. And each of those waves is composed of three waves labelled W-X-Y. To…...
That bullish count shows a possible destination for this corrective A up, B down, C up structure at 4,050: The first strong resistance is 3,940, 176.4% ext of wave A up. This micro wave (iii) may extend to 138.2% ext of wave (i) up = 3,960…. This content is for...
If we look at the chart below you can see a corrective Double Three structure labelled (w)-(x)-(y) up: According to that wave count, to complete the final subwave -c- of wave (y) up we need to get a shallow pullback in a micro wave iv down followed by another push…...
Under the Bullish Scenario we can get a five wave up rally in wave C up. Any impulsive rally in wave C up starts from a micro (i) up, (ii) down setup: That bullish count lacks a proper foundation, a complete looking (a)-(b)-(c) structure of wave (ii) down. To complete…...
TSLA is approaching the Green Box: We should get a relatively large corrective pullback in wave B up off that Green Box…. This content is for Monthly Plan, Quarterly Plan, and Annual Plan members only.Login Join Now...
DXY, the US Dollar index has super clean bullish micro count that argues that wave 3 up has not topped yet: The flat (a)-(b)-(c) down consolidation (see the red labels) looks completed and argues for the final spike up in subwave (c) of wave(v) of C of 3 up targeting…...