$ES #ES-mini #topping Bulls pushed ES-mini all the way up to the upper edge of the Red Target box: ES-mini 30 min chart The impulsive five wave up looks completed by now. That means that staying long in that overextended rally becomes risky. Bulls can push higher but at this point we can expect a … Read more
$ES #es-mini #red box #topping As long as bulls hold ES over 7,079 even one more push down would not kill the potential for bulls to make one more push higher towards the Red Box: ES-mini 30 min chart yesterday we got a super shallow subwave -c- down that stopped at a 76.4% ext of … Read more
$NQ #NQ-mini #red box We can count that super strong move up as the fonal exhaustive rally in a micro wave ( v ) of C of 5 up. NQ-mini Daily chart Let’s zoom-into a 240 min chart: NQ-mini 240 min chart Yesterday we got a clean micro -a- down, -b- up, -c- down structure … Read more
$ES #Topping Scenario I have been following two bullish scenarios that allowed bulss to make at least one more rally to a new all time high. (1) More bullish wave count // Less realistic at this time ES-mini Daily chart If that rally was a starting move of a large subwave C of wave 5 … Read more
$ES #ES-mini Bulls believe they April low was the bottom of a large correction: ES-mini 240 min chart The Feb- Mar drop looked corrective indeed. But we did not get the green box tagged. if the bottom has been made, then we should expect a new impulsive rally. In that case this spiky move up … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #trading setup This is how the bearish path looks like: ES-mini 60 min chart ES is slowly climbing up towards the red box that starts at 6,488. So far it looks like the textbook a up, b down, c up corrective bounce that is setting up the stage for another leg down in … Read more
In my Wednesday update I shared the bearish scenario That bearish wave count assumed that the rally we got on Sunday night – Monday morning looked like the textbook corrective bounce in a wave -x- up, a premature attempt to start a new rally off incomplete corrective structure. The spiky look of that move up … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #long setup #failed breakdown #Expanded Flat We will be watching two alternative scenarios / wave counts: (1) The Bearish wave count: ES-mini 60 min chart The rally we got on Sunday night – Monday morning looks like the textbook corrective bounce in a wave -x- up, a premature attempt to start a new … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #corrective rally In my Friday report I noted that break under the Yearly S1 support would be followed by an accelerated drop: I would say we can consider that bullish Triple Three scenario as long as bulls hold ES OVER the Yearly S1 support = 6,592.75: On Sunday night ES dropped down to … Read more
Last week my primary scenario was a bullish wave count that considered a 4.5 month long consolidation as a flat wave (iv) down: ES-mini Daily chart I think that scenario is still very well alive. Let me show you a micro count of the Feb – Mar 2026 decline: ES-mini 60 min chart First we … Read more
$ES #complex correction #long setup Let me start from a micro update today: This is how a complex corrective structure looks like: ES-mini 30 min chart First, note the initial -a-b-c decline, labeled as -w- down. That move created the first opportunity for the bulls to begin a rally in wave -iii- up. Now look … Read more
$ES #TopDiamond We correctly identified a potential for a large move down. What triggered that decline was the Top Diamond pattern: The Sunday sell off stopped right at the confluence of the upward sloped 200 DMA and the Yearly Support S1 level: So far the strong bounce we got brought price back up against the … Read more
$ES #ES-mini When price hovers in a narrow range for months it becomes nearly impossible to predict what way it breaks out of that consolidation range. Bulls have been dreaming about another push higher in the final subwave (c) of wave (v) up targeting the Red Box that starts at 7,300: ES-mini Daily chart To … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #i down – ii up setup #invalidation The Elliott Wave principle tends to work best when the market is in motion and trending. That is when its backbone structure — the classic five-wave impulsive move — becomes very clear and reliable. However, when momentum fades and the market enters an extended period of … Read more
$ES #breakdown Traders practicing old time traditional technical analysis based on repeating patterns should spot this: ES-mini 30 min chart Under that Diamond Pattern bulls may produce another small bounce off the lower trendline before breaking under support provided by that lower trendline. This is how a bigger picture looks like: ES-mini Daily chart Interestingly, … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #macro #failure #invalidation Under the straightforward bullish scenario, ES could still push higher in one final, exhaustive rally into the Red Target Box. However, bulls have already attempted to ignite that move at least three times — in December, January, and February — and each attempt failed to gain sustained momentum. ES-mini Daily … Read more
$NQ #Double_Three #breakout NQ provides us with a very clean -i- up, -ii- down long breakout setup where the corrective wave -ii- down subdivided into two a-b-c down moves and therefore counted as the Double Three -w-x-y- correction. NQ-mini 30 min chart Break over the blue Monthly Pivot shall trigger a rally in a wave … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #long setup The sharp drop last Thursday can be counted as the final subwave -e- down of the Expanding Triangle corrective structure: ES-mini Daily chart Let’s zoom in to a 30 min chart: If we count the Thursday drop as a subwave -e- of wave (b) of ( v ) then we should … Read more
$NQ #Bullish scenario Last week we correctly predicted a drop in NQ. Yesterday NQ has tagged the minimum required downside target 24,400: NQ-mini 240 min chart In my update published on Jan 30 I noted: “NQ has a short term bearish look. That wave count allows bears to push NQ down to 24,400:”. Yesterday NQ … Read more
$ES #breakout #breakdown #Inverse Head and Shoulders We’re seeing another potential breakout setup reinforced by a long -i- up, -ii- down setup. ES-mini Daily chart What makes this one especially interesting is the clean inverse head and shoulders structure developing on the chart. That adds strong bullish context to the setup. Plan A (Bullish):Go long … Read more
$NQ #breakdown NQ has a short term bearish look. That wave count allows bears to push NQ down to 24,400: NQ-mini 240 min chart If we get a quick drop, we would be able to consider it as the second leg down in a corrective (a) down, (b) up, (c) down structure. Now let’s have … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #rally extension In my previous update I correctly predicted a breakout and a rally to follow. ES-mini has rallied 80 points since the Monday morning update. Let’s update the chart: ES-mini 30 min chart There are two potential micro paths. The magenta path allows bulls to make another very strong leg yup targeting … Read more
$ES #es-mini #long setup #breakout Bulls consider the spike down on Sunday evening as the final subwave c of wave -y- of -ii- down: ES-mini 30 min chart That drop completed a corrective wave -ii- down and a long -i- up, -ii- down setup setting up a big rally. Bulls should break over the micro … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #failed breakdown I’ve been watching this market for almost 30 years, and it still amazes me how often it behaves in such a simple and brutally efficient way. Notice the a-b-c up structure, labeled as the -b- up move. As soon as the upside momentum becomes exhausted, the market makes a fast trip … Read more
$ES #milestone support #breakdown the bearish Head and Shoulders reversal pattern produced decline down to the monthly support: Monthly Levels for January 2026 6,856 is a “milestone support”, a critical level that divides bull market from a bear market. If bulls manage to defend that level they will save the bullish setup and opportunity to … Read more
$NQ #i up – ii down setup #long setup We can consider NQ as having completed a bullish -i- up, -ii- down long setup: NQ-mini 240 min chart To trigger that long setup bulls need to push NQ over 26,000. The fact that bulls reclaimed the Monthly Resistance 25,845 is a very encouraging sign for … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #five wave up #breakout ES strongly spiked on CPI reading (even though CPI did not actually bring any good news for bulls). That is how news work in the stock market. While in an uptrend the market often disregards bad news. Moreover, it reacts in a bullish way to a purely negative headline. … Read more
$NQ #breakout We keep patiently watching the completed triangle shaped consolidation that allows bulls to start a new strong leg up: NQ-mini 240 min chart We may identify a micro long setup i up, ii down: NQ-mini 15 min chart As long as bulls hold NQ over 25,740, the breakout level, the chart will look … Read more
$ES #five wave up rally #trending move up #breakout We have been watching that bullish path for weeks. This week bulls finally have made a move and push ES over resistance of the declining red trendline. That was the first confirmation that a new leg up has started. ES-mini 120 min chart Now we are … Read more
$ES $NQ #breakout #weekly range Bulls still have decent long setups in both, $ES and $NQ futures. Let’s start with ES-mini: ES-mini 120 min chart Today the market has formed the new weekly resistance and support levels: Bulls need to break over 6,963.50 to trigger a breakout long setup targeting 7,015. Let’s have a look … Read more
$NQ #breakout setup #triangle NQ has been accumulating breakout energy in a tight triangle shaped consolidation: NQ-mini 240 min chart You do not need to try to front run the market. We can set a breakout level at 25,740. Break over that level would be a very attractive long setup. let’s look how price has … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #long setup Our primary bullish wave count allows bulls to start a new leg up targeting 7,175 in a subwave -c- of wave -iii- up: ES-mini 120 min chart To confirm that scenario bulls need to break over the weekly resistance 6,967.75. As we step into the New Year, I want to sincerely … Read more
$NQ #NQ-mini #triangle consolidation So far bulls have not broken over the red trend line and we have not got confirmation that the wave -iii- up has started: NQ-mini 240 min chart Because NQ has not broken out yet we have to consider that triangle scenario: NQ-mini 240 min chart Under that scenario, NQ has … Read more
$ES #ES-mini The big picture allows bulls to keep pushing ES-mini higher over 7,300: ES-mini 120 min chart On Friday morning we saw a top of the subwave -a- of wave -iii- up: Let’s zoom into a micro 15 min chart: ES-mini 15 min chart On a 15 min chart shown above you can see … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #Running Flat The big picture remains to look bullish. Bulls have a lot of room to push ES higher up to 7,300: ES-mini 120 min chart There are two ways of counting the Christmas rally (the push up we got this week). The first way is to It is possible to count it … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #five wave up rally this is a possible bullish path for a five wave up rally targeting the Red Box: ES-mini 120 min chart Let’s zoom in to a micro 15 min chart: ES-mini 15 min chart ES has made enough miro waves to consider the wave -i- up completed. It can stretch … Read more
$ES #ES-mini Yesterday bulls got an early Christmas present from Santa, a very low CPI reading. That was a good trigger to start a rally we expected: We can count the move up off the low made on Wed as some -a-b-c- up structure that can extend up to the weekly resistance 6,930.50, the next … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #long setup Bulls can consider the whipsaw of the first two weeks of December as a completed corrective subwave (b) down to be followed by a rally in a subwave (c) up. ES-mini 120 min chart Note that by pushing ES-mini back over the Monthly Support 6,864 (got violated yesterday) bulls closed the … Read more
$NQ #long setup The bullish scenario considers the move up off the low made on Nov’21 as a starting wave (v) up that should make a new all time high: NQ-mini 240 min chart Let’s zoom to a 15 min micro chart: ES-mini 15 min chart Firrst, we can count clean five wave up rally … Read more
$ES #breakout #breakdown As I noted in my weekend update posted on Sunday, bulls need to break over the Monthly Resistance 6,931.25 (for Mar’26 contract) or 6,873.25 (for Dec’25 contract). This morning bulls tested the Monthly Resistance and failed to break over that level. As I keep teaching you, failure of bulls to break over … Read more