$ES #ES-mini futures #trading setup #wave C down Yesterday bulls hit the Red Target box under the Bullish scenario: The can push higher into the Red Box to tag the Target 2 = 4,106.25. Note that the morning inflationary data confirmed that inflation persists and bulls do not have data…...
$ES #ES-mini futures I found a really clean wave count that can be used for forecasting the next big move in ES-mini. Let’s first start from our primary bearish wave count on a daily timeframe: You can see that this rally started off a low labeled by red letter w…....
$ES #ES-mini futures #trading setup #slow grinding wave b up I know you are frustrated that ES refuses to follow my bearish scenarios and keeps pushing higher. I am frustrated as well. Let’s first review an alternative bullish count to see whether that slow grinding move up has any legs…...
$ES #ES-mini futures #trading setup Since the market topped in Jan’22 almost every attempt to turn ES back up was shaped as an ascending wedge: And almost every wedge topped after a failed attempt to push higher resulted in a double top (see the yellow dots marking up double tops)…....
$ES #ES-mini #trading setup ES has completed another bearish wedge that looks very similar to the bearish wedge that was followed by a drop in March: In the weekend update we reviewed two alternative bullish counts that take advantage of the average bullish seasonaity for April. This is the most…...
$ES #ES-mini futures The primary Bearish count is still alive: To invalidate the bearish count bulls need to push ES over 4,074. The main problem for bears is that upcoming April is generally a bullish month: The average seasonality for years ending in “3”suggests a bull run starting beginning of…...
$ES #ES-mini futures #trading setup #Elliott Wave In several previous reports I kept saying that the pullback was shaped as a bearish ascending wedge was supposed to get broken downside. Yesterday we got a clean breakdown. Until bulls manage to push ES back inside the broken channel bears will remain…...
$ES #es-mini trading #trading setup Morning Update This is potential path for today and tomorrow: Yesterday ES could finally top in a corrective -a-b-c-up structure. Above This you can see a potential path for today and tomorrow. Yesterday afternoon we got a strong a-b-c move down that can be counted…...
$ES #ES-mini futures #trading setup The macro count remains unchanged. Yesterday and today bulls pushed ES deep into the Red Box. Today we got a strong rejection. Bears pushed ES down out of the red box. Note that the rally has been shaped as a bearish wedge. A break under…...
$ES #ES-mini futures #trading setup Today bulls got excited by anemic behavior of bears and push ES deep into the Red Target box: Note that this rally stopped right at 50% retracement of the preceding decline off the high made in Feb’23. We can count the move up as a…...
$ES #ES-mini futures #trading setup The macro picture has not changed. ES-mini keeps working on a corrective bounce: As you can see, any push higher would enter a risk zone, the Red Target box. That final push higher would most likely complete the bounce and will be followed by a…...
$ES #ES-mini futures #trading setup On Mar 13th I shared expectations for a strong short covering rally: I pointed to similarity to a strong short covering rally we got in Sep’22. That rally is highlighted with the Green circle. This is how that Daily chart looks like now: We have…...
$ES #ES mini futures #tradig setup #short covering rally #short squeeze On March 13th I issued a report called “ES: Time Comes For A Vicious Short Covering Rally”. This is an expected bullish path I shared back then: Below is the updated daily chart o ES-mini: I believe this move…...
$ES #ES mini futures We can count that messy consolidation as a symmetrical triangle: A symmetrical triangle is a consolidation pattern composed of five moves (subwaves) bouncing in between of two contracting trendlines. Upon completion price should continue moving down to new lower lows Price normally enters and leaves a…...
$ES #ES mini futures #trading setup On March 13 we correctly predicted a corrective bounce. On March 14 we correctly predicted a move down to re-test the green Demand zone. This morning we noted that ES dropped down to the green demand zone in a corrective manner and predicted a…...
$ES #trading-setup Yesterday I shared this scenario: This how it played out: Bears produced an a-b-c down corrective looking structure off the overnight high. That is a long setup for bulls to produce another leg up in a subwave -c- up. If we get that move up that would be…...
$ES #ES mini futures #trading setup In the previous update I shared my expectation for a strong corrective bounce. This is how a macro wave count looks like after the first day of a corrective action: Cycle analysis suggests that this large wave C of (Y) down may keep leaking…...
$ES #macro #ES-mini futures #trading setup This morning ES has tagged 100% extension of the first leg down labelled -a- down: There are two reasons why I would prefer ES to spike to a lower low tomorrow on CPI before a big pullback starts. Reason 1. In corrective a-b-c structures…...
$ES #triple three #five wave down In this weekend report we will discuss the big picture including targets for that decline and potential paths how we can get to the targets. Finally, I will explain what scenario I prefer and why. This is our primary bearish macro account: I count…...
$NQ #NQ-mini futures #Macro update This is our macro bearish wave count: Note that it finally dropped under the pink 200 MA. That wave count considers a weak (w)-(x)-(y) up structure off the Oct’22 low as a corrective wave B up. The whole structure of the decline off the major…...
$NQ #NQ-mini futures #trading setup #i down ii up setup Let’s look at a macro structure of the decline off the last top made in Nov’22: On the Daily chart above you can see an unfolding corrective structure called Double Three. It is composed of three waves labelled (W) down,…...
$ES #ES-mini futures #trading setup In the previous update posted yesterday I concluded: “That is a decent short setup for bears to start an accelerated part of a decline in the heart of the wave -iii- down, its subwave -c- of wave -iii- down.“. Today we have got a nice…...
$ES #ES-mini futures #trading setup #Expanding Flat The relentless short covering rally seems having stopped today. Before I show you a macro picture I would like to add a couple of notes about that rally and explain what was wrong with it. In my Premium Chat room I post numerous…...
$ES #ES-mini futures #trading setup #Expanding Flat Last Wednesday I shared a bullish short-term scenario that argued for a corrective rally targeting 4,000- 4,027. However, bulls managed to trigger another short covering squeeze on Friday: I consider that rally as a completion of a corrective a-b-c up structure of a…...
$ES #ES-mini futures #trading setup #Running Flat Yesterday I shared expectations for a bounce off the green target box. This is how it played out: This morning bears only slightly undershot the Green Box but doing that they got exhausted. Then bulls stepped in and produced a rally we expected…....
$ES #ES-mini futures #tarding setup ES continues to leak lower. The most bearish count expects for accelerated decline in subwave -c- of wave -iii- down: But we have not seen a pullback that could be counted as a corrective bounce in subwave -b- up of wave -iii- down, a pullback…...
$ES #ES-mini futures #trading setup ES-mini continues to consolidate after a strong five wave down move that bottomed at 3,947.25 last Friday. We expected an a-b-c up corrective structure and that structure does not look having completed yet: This move down can be counted as a subwave c of wave…...
$ES $NQ #trading setup In my weekend update I correctly predicted an upcoming corrective pullback. Both, ES and NQ followed the path I shared in my weekend update: This is how ES-mini looks now: This morning ES-mini topped in a subwave a up and then leaked in a subwave b…...
$ES #ES-mini futures #trading setup Under the most bearish wave count ES-mini has been leaking down off the top of a large corrective wave (B) up that topped in early Feb’23. I call it the most bearish scenario because that wave count allows bears to push ES down in a…...
$ES #ES-mini futures #trading setup Let’s start form a macro update. We assume that the large corrective subwave Y of a wave (B) up topped in early February 2023. Off that top we should get a large wave down to a new lower low. What we do not know at…...
$ES #ES-mini trading #trading setup As we expected, ES pushed lower under 4,000 on Wednesday. Here we can outline two bearish scenarios. There are only minor differences between two scenarios. (1) the Bearish: Under the bearish scenario ES bottomed in a micro wave iii down today and rallied in a…...
$ES #ES-mini futures #trading setup Overnight bears managed to test 4,000 level then bulls stepped in and played a pullback. If wave iii down bottomed overnight then we should get a corrective a-b-c up structure of the wave iv up. But the main level I am focusing on is 4,048,…...
$NQ #trading setup NQ keeps leaking lower confirming my bearish count that argues that NQ made a major top in a large corrective wave (B) up in early February 2023: I count that decline as a subwave -a- of wave -iii- down that does not look having completed yet. At…...
$ES #trading setup On Sunday I posted a weekend update where I concluded that the bullish scenario could be proclaimed dead after bears managed to violate the critical support 4,060. That slow unfolding consolidation looks like a wave (i) down or (a) down of a new five or three wave…...
$ES #trading setup Yesterday ES mini closed a day on a bullish note. It finally broke out over 4,150. This is what I wrote to subscribers of my Premium chat room at 9-39 PM yesterday: ES: Daily Resistance for Thursday is 4,170 ES: Daily Support for Thursday is 4,103.75 basically…...
$ES #macro #trading setup #breakout In the previous update we outlined two scenarios. The bullish one seems having prevailed: On Feb 2, 2023 bulls completed a corrective Double Three structure of a rally that started off the mid Dec’22 low. Bears got a chance to start a new leg down…....
$ES #trading setup As long as bulls hold ES-mini futures over support 4,100 this bullish path will be a feasible scenario: In contrast, a break under 4,100 would be a strongargument in favor of that bearish scenario: Under the bearish wave count, ES completed a corrective wave -x- up today…...
$ES #macro #tradig setup #failure In my weekend update I shared a bullish scenario and noted: “If bears fail to break the first support 4,007 (the low made by the previous pullbacks) bulls can start pushing again. Note that the pullback we got last week stopped right at 200 MA…...
$NQ #macro #trading setup Last week we discussed a bullish alternative scenario. So far bulls stopped decline right at the major support, 12,258, the Dec 22 high that turned into support: NQ 240 min chart NQ declined in a clean a-b-c down structure and bulls believed that it was a……...
$ES #macro #weekend #trading setup In this update we will review in details our primary bearish count and discuss a potential path for upcoming week that could bring volatility to the market. The bonus of the update is discussion of an alternative bullish count watched by perm bulls. According to…...