SPX: This Repeating Fractal Argues the Correction is Not Over

$SPX #MACRO #forceast #fractal analysis Nothing is new under the sun. Over the weekend I scrolled back through the last 70 years of history and found several very similar fractals, patterns of similar corrections played out by S&P 500: On the left you can see a similar correction played out…...

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ES: The Tricky Path Higher

$ES #micro #macro #trading plan #trading setup #es-mini This is how the big picture looks like: Bulls are trying to break out over the declining red trend line. Everybody expects a strong rally triggered by successful breakout over that line. But that path higher could be much trickier. I count…...

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S&P: Has it Broken Out?

$ES $SPX #Macro Many analysts claimed that S&P broke over the trend line that connected several previous tops yesterday. As you can see on the chart, it did not break over that red trend line as of now. However, every new bulls attack on that line makes resistance weaker. There…...

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ES: Intraday Update

$ES #intraday micro update #trading setup I consider that a-b-c- up consolidation off the low made yesterday as a corrective wave iv up: I expect another push down that could violate the low made at 3,891.50 on Jan 10th. If bears first break under that level and bulls quickly recapture…...

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ES: Bulls Got A Strong Argument in Favor of Potential Breakout

$ES #Macro In addition to our primary bearish scenario we have to consider two alternative mid term bullish counts: Note the red declining red trend line. Bulls pushed price to yet another lower high and stopped under the resistance. Let’s look at the Daily chart of ES-mini futures: Here we…...

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NQ: Macro Update

$NQ #macro #daily #trading setup There are two macro wave counts I can identify here. Let’s start from my primary bearish one: The bearish count argues that this rally is a corrective bounce in subwave (b) up to be followed by a decline in subwave (c) down to a new…...

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ES: In the Red Target Box

$ES #trading setup Bulls pumped up the market into the Red Target box based on expectation sthat CPI data will be softer and confirn that inflation has peaked. But the data was released in line with expectations: Now we have a pumped up market into the resistance without a positive…...

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ES: Topped in a Corrective Bounce

$ES #macro Yesterday ES-mini futures finally completed the rally as we expected: ES tested the Red Target Box yesterday in a rally that looked like a textbook subwave c of a corrective a-b-c up structure: In such corrective structures the bullish sentiment reaches its peak at completion of the second…...

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Crude Oil: Breakout in Crude Would Provide Support for the Market

$CL #Crude Oil #Macro analysis #Daily #trading setup Cycle analysts noted that Crude oil normally leads the equity market by 30 – 45 days. This is why that major crossroad in Crude is so important for the stock market. The bullish scenario argues that crude oil made a lasting bottom…...

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ES: The Macro Count is Bearish

$ES #Macro #Daily #i down – ii up setup #trading setup Last week bears managed to break under support 3,945: Since then ES-mini has been consolidating in a shallow pullback that is supposed to be followed by another leg down that will most likely test the October lows. It is…...

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TSLA: Looks Attractive

$TSLA #Macro #tradingsetup A huge corrective (W)-(X)-(Y) down structure looks complete: The stock dropped to important support from September – October 2020. A the very least I would expect a bounce targeting 180sh in the first half of 2023. During a Twitter Spaces event Thursday, Musk said he would not…...

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Natural Gas: Making a Bottom

$NG #Daily #Macro #tradingsetup On a Daily chart we can see how NG is completing a huge (A)-(B)-(C) down corrective structure: Let’s zoom in to a 30 min chart: NG looks having completed the micro structure of the final push down. We can clearly see five micro waves down inside…...

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ES: Bounced As Expected

$ES #trading setup #i down – ii up setup As we expected here, here and here, the market produced a two day bounce. But the big picture remains strongly bearish: Last week ES-mini futures broke under support 3,945. This week we got a weak bounce as we expected. This morning…...

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$ES: Finally Violated the Support

$ES #micro #trading setup ES-mini futures finally violated the support 3,945: It has been our target for the first move down and the first support we have been watching. Now even under the bearish count we could expect a bounce. The Rule of thumb says: “every time a widely watched…...

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ES: Bears Have Huge Advantage for Upcoming Week

$ES #short trading setup #broken bearish wedge #Month Opening Range Tomorrow we will start a volatile week packed with news catalysts including CPI scheduled on Tuesday, FOMC decision and a press-conference by Jerome Powell on Wednesday, and, finally, PMI on Friday morning. In addition , that will be an OPEX…...

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ES: Key Support to Crack is 3,992

#ES #ES-mini futures #Daily #Macro #Trading setup I count the whole structure of the decline off the top made in Jan 2022 as a complex Double Three structure: That type of a corrective structures is composed if two large A-B-C down structures. To complete that structure we ned to get…...

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SPY: Weekly: 8FLD points to the top this coming week

#macro #weekly #cycle analysis #FLD #Hurst JM Hurst proposed using the tool called Future Line of Demarcation to identify underlying cycles. In essense FLD is price of a stock shifted by n bars forward. That lets a trader quickly identify potential turning points. My favorite periods are 8 and 21…....

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