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the Harmonic Elliott Wave theory

Every month I record couple of educational videos based on recent developments in the markets. You can watch them on this page during the week when a new video is posted and then they will only be available as part of my video courses.

Free Video Lesson:

“How to find the right starting point to count waves”

ES-mini: Subwave A of wave 5 up in Mar 2019

In March 2019 my subscriber sent me a micro count of ES mini that started at the local low made at the beginning of that month. Then I posted that lesson for subscribers of my Premium Educational Chatroom where I explained how counting micro waves actually requires analysts to zoom-out to daily and even weekly timeframes to understand whether that particular market was trending and in what direction. 

In the video I show the whole process of identifying the main trend, counting macro waves on higher timeframes and only then focusing on micro counts of lower timeframe of 45 min and 90 min.

The macro count and the micro count should perfectly fit together and support each other. That approach to counting waves is what you need to get confident enough about your wave count and forecast for the next market move. 

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HIGH RISK WARNING
Trading stocks, options, or futures carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Before deciding to trade, you should carefully consider your objectives, financial situation, needs and level of experience. CastAway Trader LLC provides general overview of trading methods that does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. The content of this website must not be construed as personal advice. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss in excess of your deposited funds and therefore, you should not speculate with capital that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading. 

You should seek advice from an independent financial advisor. 

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future profits.

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“Imperfect Completion of a Corrective Wave 4”

Gold: Do Not Get Trapped by “One More Lower Low” scenario

Added to the Video Course “Trade Like a Pro: How to Use Wave Analysis to Find Winning Trade Setups”

By late September 2020 gold made enough micro waves on the way down to be counted as having completed wave ( C ) down of a corrective wave ( 4 ) down. However, the majority of Elliott Wave analysts waited for one more push lower. Such a move down would make a perfect textbook completion of that large corrective pattern. 

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By late September 2020 gold made enough micro waves on the way down to be counted as having completed wave ( C ) down of a corrective wave ( 4 ) down. However, the majority of Elliott Wave analysts waited for one more push lower. Such a move down would make a perfect textbook completion of that large corrective pattern. 

The problem is that in 60%-70% of cases the market refuses to follow textbook patterns. And those purists, Elliott Wave analysts who are convinced that the market had to follow canonical rules, got left behind again. Because both gold and gold miners turned up and took out critical resistance invalidating the bearish scenario. The Harmonic Elliott wave theory has rules that let us detect invalidation of the bearish scenario early enough and avoid fatal mistake of insisting on a scenario that has been clearly invalidated already.

“A fractal that helps to navigate through corrections”

RTY: 2020: Even an ugly wave B follows repeating pattern

Added to the Video Course
“Predict the Market with the Harmonic Elliott Wave Analysis”

RTY made a major top in August 2018 and since then it has been unable to make a new higher high. The sharp drop that bottomed in mid March 2020 completed a huge wave ( 4 ) down structured as (A)-(B)-(C).

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This video reviews an internal  structure of a pullback in wave ( B ) up that lasted the whole 2019 year. Wave ( B ) is the most difficult to navigate because it is composed of A-B-C where B is itself composed of (a)-(b)-(c).

This video explores in depth uncertainty about the way how we could count waves in that corrective structure by using a standard fractal. That fractal describes in details all microwaves inside a Regular Flat corrective structure. If you learn and memorize that pattern you will feel much more confident navigating even through complex corrective patterns.

In the second part of the lesson we will use the very same fractal to analyze a pullback in RTY that happened in September 2020. You will see that (a)-(b)-(c) down structure nicely followed all the squiggles described by that fractal!

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“Overlapping Whipsaw is All You Need to Know About Wave B”

ES-mini: How to Nail The Top of a Complex Corrective Wave -B- up

Added to the Video Course “Trade Like a Pro: How to Use Wave Analysis to Find Winning Trade Setups”

After ES mini made a major top in Feb 2020 in wave ( 3 ) up it started a large corrective wave ( 4 ) down. The first leg down in subwave -A- of wave ( A ) of ( 4 ) down bottomed at 2,842 on Feb 28, 2020.

This video reviews a pullback in subwave -B- up that followed that first leg down.That pullback came as another complex corrective structure that propelled the price higher for almost 300 points in a matter of several days.

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This video explores in depth uncertainty about the way how we could count waves in that corrective structure. It could be counted either as a Regular Flat or Double Three. And the main point of that video is that despite that uncertainty about the price structure I still managed to nail the very top of that pullback. In the video I explain how the Five Wave up fractal helped me to nail the top. 

Another interesting part of the story is that same fractal let me accurately forecast the final pop that was induced by breaking news about surprise rate cut by FOMC. That is yet another case that proves a trader does not need to follow news because the price structures tells him in advance about upcoming moves even if talking heads on TV will later explain that move by unexpected news events.

“Rules of Successful Bottom Fishing”​

ES-mini: Catching a Bottom of Decline in Five Wave Down Structure in Mar 2020

Added to the Video Course “Trade Like a Pro: How to Use Wave Analysis to Find Winning Trade Setups”

When you attempt to catch a bottom of a corrective structure you should focus on the very last leg down in wave  C.

In any A-B-C structure wave C has to have an impulsive structure. That means its micro structure should follow the Five Wave Down fractal. In this video I explain how I managed to catch the very bottom of the drop in ES mini on March 18, 2020. I show you how you could employ micro counting to confirm the moment of completion of the wave C and common extension tool to project probable bottoming zone days before the bottom was made.

“How Quickly Distinguish a Corrective from an Impulsive structure”

ES-mini: Double Three Corrective Structure of the Decline in Feb 2020

Added to the Video Course
“Predict the Market with the Harmonic Elliott Wave Analysis”

When an impulsive wave tops making a major top our first goal is to correctly identify a type of a corrective pattern in play. However, it is barely possible to identify a pattern after first squiggles down. The problem is that both most common corrective patterns, the Flat and the Simple Zig-Zag, start from a relatively small a-b-c move down.

At the beginning we can only watch retracement ratios applied to the entire impulsive wave that has just completed. We should watch the common retracement ratios waiting for more clarity regarding the structure of the unfolding corrective move down. 

The main difference between those two most common corrective structures, the Flat and the Simple Zig-Zag is a micro structure of the first leg down, subwave ( A ). In particular, in the simple Zig-Zag structure the first leg down has an impulsive structure while under the Flat structure the first leg down is itself subdivided into A-B-C.

This video shows how you can quickly distinguish an impulsive structure from a corrective structure at a quick glance at the chart without even need to label waves.

I explain in detail that under the Flat corrective structure the first leg down in wave ( A ) may have a complex Double Three internal structure instead of a simple A-B-C.

"Gold: You Can't Nail The Bottom of a Corrective A-B-C Structure Without That Rule”

Added to the Video Course “Trade Like a Pro: How to Use Wave Analysis to Find Winning Trade Setups”

When we start analyzing a temporary pullback in a bullish trending market we always start from a simple retracement ratio. That method returns several levels where a pullback may stop. But you can not be sure a pullback has completed if you do not perform a wave analysis. The most important stage when you perform wave analysis of a corrective structure is to correctly identify a structure in play. It is much more difficult to identify a corrective structure rather than an impulsive structure. The reason for that is that trending markets follow one clean Five Wave fractal. In contrast, the Wave Theory identifies a wide array of potential corrective patterns. Those patterns differ from each other by small details. 

"GDX: “The Triangle that I didn't See Coming”.

Added to the Video Course “Trade Like a Pro: How to Use Wave Analysis to Find Winning Trade Setups”

The video shows that you may start tracking a corrective pattern as the Simple Zig-Zag. But you have to watch closely the unfolding structure. And in many cases you will note that some small details do not fit a scenario you picked as your primary one. That small detail should make you switch to an alternative count. This is how I did that in case of GDX and its corrective wave ( 4 ) down that bottomed in December 2019.

"NQ-mini: “Ten Steps To Find a Reversal Level for the Strongest Part of the Rally”.

Added to the Video Course “Trade Like a Pro: How to Use Wave Analysis to Find Winning Trade Setups”

The subwave ( c ) of wave ( iii ) is often called “the heart of a rally” for a reason. In the final stage price keeps pushing higher without any meaningful pullbacks. This video explains how you can find a topping area for the strongest part of the rally in subwave ( c ) of wave ( iii ) up in ten steps.

"ES-mini: “Fake Breakouts in Expanded Flat Structures”.

Added to the Video Course “Predict the Market with the Harmonic Elliott Wave Analysis”

Find it in Lecture 53 “GDXJ: “Double Three Corrective Structure: Your Third Best Choice”.

When a rally is accelerating in subwave ( c ) of wave ( iii ) the prevalent sentiment of the market turns outright bullish. Every trader “knows” price will keep making new higher highs. When the wave ( iii ) finally tops the very first a-b-c pullback is normally very shallow and quick. Bulls buy every weakness because they expect another push higher. That strong sentiment is the reason why after completion of subwave ( c ) of wave ( iii ) up a corrective subwave ( b ) up of wave ( iv ) down often manages to make a new higher high over the top made by preceding rally in wave ( iii ) up. That is the main distinctive feature of the Expanded Flat structure. 

"GDX: When a Corrective Wave ( iv ) Down Gets Super Tricky".

Added to the Video Course “Trade Like a Pro: How to Use Wave Analysis to Find Winning Trade Setups”

Find it in Lecture 53 “GDXJ: “Double Three Corrective Structure: Your Third Best Choice”.

When an impulsive wave ( iii ) up tops your main goal is to correctly identify type of a corrective pattern in play. In this video I show you how a relatively easy to identify Simple Zig-Zag may get really complex because of an ugly structure of its subwave ( b ) up.

"ES-mini: How To Nail a Top of Wave 3: Looking for dense clusters of projections by waves of different degrees".​

Added to the Video Course “Predict the Market with the Harmonic Elliott Wave Analysis”

Find it in Lecture 53 “GDXJ: “Double Three Corrective Structure: Your Third Best Choice”.

In this video I explain how you can find high probability reversal zones for the strongest part of the rally, subwave ( c ) of wave ( iii ) up. I show what projections and what ratios you should use and how to identify clusters of targets produced by extensions.

"GDXJ: “Double Three Corrective Structure: Your Third Best Choice of a Corrective Pattern in Play”

Added to the Video Course “Trade Like a Pro: How to Use Wave Analysis to Find Winning Trade Setups”

Find it in Lecture 53 “GDXJ: “Double Three Corrective Structure: Your Third Best Choice”.

This video covers a great bearish ( i ) down – ( ii ) up setup in ES-mini that triggered on 10/01/2019 and delivered 130 point drop in the following 48 hours.

"ES-mini: “Small Trick That Helped to Nail a TOP”

Added to the Video Course “Trade Like a Pro: How to Use Wave Analysis to Find Winning Trade Setups”

Find it in Lecture 52 “ES-mini: “Small Trick That Helped to Nail a TOP”.

This video covers a great bearish ( i ) down – ( ii ) up setup in ES-mini that triggered on 10/01/2019 and delivered 130 point drop in the following 48 hours.

"SOXL: How to Count a Chart From Scratch”​

Added to the Video Course “Predict the Market with the Harmonic Elliott Wave Analysis”

Find it in Lecture 133 “SOXL: Counting Waves from Scratch”.

“When we should not trust spiky subwave C in A-B-C corrective structures”

Added to the Video Course “Trade Like a Pro: How to Use Wave Analysis to Find Winning Trade Setups”

Find it in Lecture 79 “When we should not trust spiky subwave C in A-B-C corrective structures”.

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