$ES #long setup #ExpandingTriangle Please note that Tradestation switched from Dec’25 contract to Mar’26 contract. This is why price levels on my chart have changed. Last Friday we got a quick drop down to the Monthly Support 6,805 (Dec’25 contract). The Monthly Support for Mar’26 contract is 6,864.50: ES-mini Mar’26 contract, Month Opening Range levels … Read more
This morning we see a standard bullish pattern – break over a resistance – followed by a retest from above: If bulls defend the broken-resistance-turned-support 6,893 we should expect a rally to weekly R1 level = 6,938. Every day I start from sharing the big picture and reaffirm that the chart looks bullish: ES-mini 120 … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #breakout Normally FOMC days bring volatility to the market. Yesterday was no exception. We got several wild swings but essentially after those two big swings up, then down, and up again, ES-mini came back to that very same critical Monthly Resistance level 6,873.25: What matters here if bulls manage to get over the … Read more
$ES #ES-mimi #WeekOpeningRange Yesterday my new TradingView indicator calculated fresh Week Opening Range Levels and their extensions: As you can see, right now ES-mini is testing the weekly support 6,848.50. Break under 6,848.50 would allows bears to push $ES down top the weekly support S1 = 6,803.75. Now let’s review two alternative bullish wave count: … Read more
$ES #ES-mini It has been a persistent theme to see weakness on Friday morning. Its like a repeating low-low cycle that has been intact for several weeks. ES-mini 15 min cycle Bulls just can not start a rally despite a decent long setup. The up trending market normally spends 85% of the time over the … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #long setup #Monthly Resistance #breakout Yesterday the market completed a Month Opening Range of December and we got the Monthly Resistance and Support Levels: The key level for bulls to break is the Monthly Resistance 6,873.25. Break over that level would open the door for a rally up to the Monthly R1 level … Read more
We are currently seeing a very flat and shallow consolidation. Despite its limited depth, this entire structure may still represent the full extent of wave ii down. ES-15 min chart Corrections come in two forms: through price and through time.Both serve the same purpose — to make bulls either nervous or bored. In both scenarios, … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #long setup #consolidation Today is the second trading day of a new month, a traditionally volatile three day period when the market expands the range that normally creates boundaries respected by the market during the following four weeks. The macro count is bullish and allows bulls to produce a five wave up rally … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #long setup The macro count is bullish and allows bulls to produce a five wave up rally off the last low made on Nov 21st: ES-mini 120 min chart Inside a five wave up rally we normally have at least three major pullbacks / consolidations: those bearish pullbacks are wave 2 down, subwave … Read more
My primary (preferred) wave count considers the strong rally off the low made last Friday as a micro wave -i- up of a five wave up rally that may extend up to 7,300+. ES-mini 120 min chart That wave -i- up may extend up to 6,878 or even 6,910 (the Monthly Resistance of November 2025). … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #long setup #five wave up rally We have been tracking a strong rally off the green demand zone: ES-mini 120 min chart We correctly considered possibility of one more drop down to the Green Demand Zone (see update on Nov 19): “…we can not exclude possibility for another push to a slighly lower … Read more
#Bitcoin $BTCUSD #Macro #longsetup Very Bullish Wave Count: This drop may complete the wave 4 shaped as a very bullish Running Flat structure. BTCUSD Weekly chart There is a viable interpretation of the current structure that treats the sharp decline as subwave C of a larger Wave 4 correction. Two key technical arguments support this … Read more
$ES #weekly_levels #i_up_ii_down_setup Bulls started the rally we expected after ES tagged the Green Demand Zone: ES-mini 120 min chart In the bullish scenario we should get a five wave up structure pushing ES to a new all time high (see the red box). After the first impulsive looking rally off the low made last … Read more
$ES #GreenDemandZone #long_setup Last week bears pushed ES-mini into our green demand zone. We counted the whole Nov’25 decline as a completed corrective wave (iv) down: ES-mini 120 min chart Completion of a corrective wave (iv) down allowed bulls to start a new five wave up rally in a wave (v) up that can push … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #Demand Zone #completed_pullback This week I repeated several times that bears could push ES-mini down one more time. Yesterday bears finally did that. ES-mini 120 min chart We can count the drop we got yesterday as the second leg down in a subwave (c) of wave (iv) down. Price dropped into teh Green … Read more
$ES #green_zone #bulllish_reversal On Tuesday and Wednesday I warned you that the corrective structure looked complete and Bulls had a setup to start a new five wave up rally. The market just waited for a trigger to break over resistance. And NVDA results gave the market a spark it needed to break over resistance ES-mini … Read more
$ES #bullish reversal #bottom The macro wave count allows bulls to turn ES up and start a new five wave up rally targeting 7,200: ES-mini 120 min chart Here ES-mini might be working on a multi week trough comparable to the April 2025 low. This is why we can not exclude possibility for another push … Read more
$ES $NQ #Double Three The corrective (w) down – (x) up, (y) down structure made enough micro waves to be considered completed: ES-mini 120 min chart According to the wave count, upon completion of the (w)-(x)-(y) structure of the wave (iv) down bulls should start a new rally in a wave (v) up targeting the … Read more
$ES $NQ #a-b-c move down The wave count argues that bulls have completed a wave ( iii ) up, the strongest part of the rally. According to that wave count ES-mini is in a corrective wave (iv) down shaped as (a) down, (b) up, (c) down structure: ES-mini 120 min chart For clean completion of … Read more
$NQ #short setup Friday bounce really looks like a subwave -c- up of a corrective wave (b) up shaped as a very bearish Running Flat corrective structure: NQ-mini 120 min chart Bears have a very clean short setup to produce another leg down in a subwave (c) of wave ( iv ) down targeting 24,100: … Read more
$ES #complex correction Bulls had a setup to start a new rally but they failed to push ES to a new all time high to complete the final wave (v) up: ES-mini 120 min chart When fail to make a higher high we count that failed rally as a wave (x) up inside a complex … Read more
$ES #extension rally The primary wave count is bullish and allows bulls to push ES-mini up to 7,200: ES-mini 120 min chart On a micro tick bar chart we can finally identify the first complete looking a-b-c down consolidation: ES-mini 4,500 tick bar chart In the most bullish scenario bulls can start pushing higher in … Read more
$ES #expected rally #i up – ii down setup Last week ES completed a corrective -w-x-y- down structure that can be counted as a corrective wave ( iv) down: ES-mini 120 min chart Off the low made on Friday noon bulls can produce a five wave up rally that can stretch up to 7,200: ES-mini … Read more
$ES #long setup Last week bulls managed to close on a bullish note: Bulls managed to close the last week over the broken Monthly Support 6,748.50. By doing that they triggered the long failed breakdown setup. The Bullish scenario allows bulls to push ES mini up to the Red Box that starts at 7,068: ES-mini … Read more
$NQ #NQ #longsetup Bulls stopped the decline over the key support 25,407: NQ-120 min That drop can be counted as a completed second leg down of a corrective a down, b up, c down structure. Therefore, bulls may use that complete looking a-b-c down structure as a long entry to ride the next leg up … Read more
$ES #ES #DoubleThree ES mini has broken under the Monthly Support 6,793. ES-mini Month Opening Range 6,587 is a 100% extension of the Month Opening Range. That is the next big support level. Bears can test it in this leg down. Note that we have got a flat consolidation around the key Monthly Support. That … Read more
#ES #corrective pullback Yesterday morning we correctly called a temporary bottom and forecasted a corrective bounce: ES-mini 15 min chart The strong a-b-c up move almost tagged my Red Box and then rolled over. In my previous update I noted The key resistance for today is the broken blue Daily support 6,849.50. The rally stopped … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #a-b-c down pullback Yesterday I shared a new macro count. The market invalidated the Very Bullish wave count and I had to find a viable alternative: ES-mini 120 min chart That alternative count still looks bullish long term in a sense that it allows bulls to resume rally upon completion of this (a)-(b)-(c) … Read more
$ES #ES-mini Yesterday I warned that break under the key micro support 6,866 would make me taking all the bullish bets off. That support got broken yesterday. Almost always first three trading days of a new month brings back heightened volatility. This pattern is being played this week. When a key support gets broken invalidating … Read more
$ES $NQ #MonthOpeningRange Bulls have been unable to push higher: ES0mini 15 min chart Last week bears managed to make a lower low undercutting the key support 6,866. Another break under that support would look really bearish to me. In theory bulls can push ES higher following the bullish path. But if bears manage to … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #rally extension Note that bears produced a clean a-b-c move down, a corrective looking pullback that can be counted as a micro wave iv down: ES-mini 15 min chart As long as bulls hold ES-mini over 6,866, the upper edge of that unfilled gap, bulls will remain in control. That wave count allows … Read more
$ES #ES #extension Ideally I would expect bulls to make a push up to 6,969 (min target), with extension up to 6,989 or even 7,000+ to complete the micro wave iii up: ES-mini 15 min chart Upon completion of a micro wave iii up we should get a quick pullback in a micro wave iv … Read more
$ES $NQ #rally acceleration That wave count allows bulls to push ES-mini over 7,000: ES-mini 15 min chart Note that ES made a bullish gap and left it behind unfilled. For now 6,866, the upper edge of that unfilled gap becomes the key support. That wave count argues that bears will be able to fill … Read more
$ES $NQ #NQ #breakout #accelerated rally Bulls finished the week on a bullish note closing over the broken Monthly Resistance 6,800: ES-mini 15 min chart That Very Bullish scenario allows bulls to push ES-mini to 6,988 in a subwave c of iii. Bulls have a very similar very bullish scenario in NQ-mini: NQ-mini 120 min … Read more
$ES #breakout This spike over 6,800 invalidated my bearish scenario. That invalidation made me look for a more bullish alternative wavve count. This is how it looks like: ES-mini 240 min chart Under that wave count bulls can push ES-mini slightly over 7,000 to complete the wave (iii) up. Let’s zoom-in to a 15 min … Read more
$NQ #breakout The drop we got this week did not even challenge the key support / invalidation level = 24,242: NQ-mini 240 min chart The Very Bullish scenario we discussed last week is still alive! The move down we got this week can be labelled as a subwave b down of wave iii up. That … Read more
$ES #short setup The rally from October 17 forms a clean a–b–c corrective advance, which I label as wave (y) — the second leg up within a (w) up – (x) down – (y) up structure: ES-mini 120 min chart There are two possible scenarios: (i) A tricky scenario where bulls first push ES to … Read more
$ETHUSD $ETH #long setup The macro wave count considers the A up, B down, C up move off the 2022 low as a huge corrective wave -B- up: ETHUSD weekly, Macro count Let’s zoom in to a 240 min chart: ETHUSD 240 min chart Let’s zoom in to a 1 hour chart: ETHUSD 60 min … Read more
$NQ #breakout To confirm the very bullish scenario bulls need NQ to break over the milestone resistance 25,394: NQ-mini 120 min chart In the case of that breakout we can see NQ extending up to 25,505 or 25,634. But then I would expect bears to step in and attempt pushing NQ back under the resistance … Read more
$ES #ExpandingTriangle #short setup We have been tracking an overlapping corrective structure that followed the sharp drop on Friday Oct 10th. When such a strong drop happens that undershoots a couple of important support levels its reasonable to expect a lengthy consolidation that sucks in a lot of new long positions. ES-mini 120 min chart … Read more