$ES #ES-mini #trading setup ES-mini keeps pushing higher moving along our bullish scenario. The Bullish scenario considers the November rally as the subwave -c- of wave -i- up: Bulls keep pushing ES-mii towards the high made in July’23: Let’s zoom-in to a 30 min micro chart: ES-mini has hit a…...
$ES #ES-mini #weekend Please note that I have switched to ESH24 , the March 24 contract of ES-mini futures: This is the scenario bulls are watching. They believe that Jan 22 top was the wave 3 up, and the Oct’22 low was the bottom of a corrective wave 4 down…....
$ES #ES-mini #failed breakout Yesterday I shared a path and ES has been nicely following it: We got an emotional drop pre market triggered by the labor data: Note that spike to 4,560 that got bought out. Yesterday I noted: “Tomorrow we may get a volatile day resulted from labor…...
$ES #ES-mini #trading setup This is the ideal scenario for Friday – Monday: The key resistance is 4,607.75. That is the Monthly resistance for December. What bears need is a fake breakout setup. The most important rule of a contrarian trader is “Strong moves result from failed moves.” Tomorrow we…...
#greed index #a-b-c flat consolidation #long setup check The morning Update – 11-29 AM EST below. $SVIX has a picture perfect long setup: SVIX produced a corrective looking a-b-c move down that looks having bottomed OVER the main support. ES-mini has even a better picture: Note the res -a-b-c- over…...
$NQ #NQ #micro #short setup On a daily chart you can see that a drop to 15,600 would complete the subwave -a- down: On a micro level you can see that bears are sitting on a micro short i down, ii up setup: If bears stop this bounce at or…...
$NQ #NQ-mini #trading setup The Daily chart looks bullish. It shows a clean path for bulls to re-test the high made in Nov 2021 at 16,767: This wave count considers the rally off the Oct’22 low as a five wave up rally of the subwave (A) of wave (5) up…....
$NQ #NQ-mini #trading setup Bulls need to break over 16,010 to start the final micro leg up: However, keep an eye on the immediate support 15,860. Break under 15,860 would confirm that NQ made some top and started a large corrective pullback…. This content is for Monthly Plan, Quarterly Plan,...
$ES #ES-mini #Elliott Wave #trading setup The previous update correctly predicted an upcoming rally. We keep watching two very different macro scenarios. They have very different expectations for 2024 but both argue for an upcoming move down in the 1Q 2024. Let’s start with the Very Bullish macro scenario: Under…...
$ES #ES #trading setup #bulls trap The macro bullish count argues for ES-mini to top somewhere around 4,660 after kissing that red trend line. Its safe to predict that they will play a fake breakout over that red trend line to suck in retail at the top: On a micro…...
$NQ #NQ-mini #trading setup 15 min chart of NQ-mini futures looks very bullish: In the yellow box you can see a clean corrective -w-x-y- down structure that looks complete. The straightforward way to count is is the wave iii up followed by a corrective wave iv down that looks 100%…...
$ES $SVIX #trading setup ES-mini looks having completed a corrective consolidation in the wave -iv- down and looks ready to start another rally in the wave -v- up: The ideal target for the wave -v- up = 4,639. SVIX, the “greed index” has a very similar wave count: That long…...
$SVIX $ES #toppong #Expanding Triangle #Megaphone This is how the macro bullish scenario looks like: Even that bullish scenario argues for an upcoming rejection of that rally off the red trend line. The bearish alternative scenario argues for even bigger decline: In the past I used to watch wave counts…...
$ES $SPX #Head and Shoulders #toppying Today was the worst day for trading in 2023. Look at that miniscule daily candle we got on the S&P 500 cash index chart: On Friday we got the lowest daily trading volume for the last 12 months. Look at several weeks surrounding Thanksgiving…...
$ES #ES #Macro #Trading Setup Let’s first look at the daily chart of S&P cash index: The last three trading days have been small doji candles. That is contraction in volatility. Most likely it will be followed by expansion in volatility. Now note well established down trend in daily volume…....
$ES #ES-mini #trading setup I think this rally will eventually extend up to 4,687 – 4,717: But I do not expect ES-mini to get there in a direct way. Ideal target for the wave -iii- up is 4,639. At the very least I would like it to tag 4,609. Therefore,…...
$NQ #NQ-mini #trading setup This is the micro path I am watching: I think Bulls should be able to push higher at least one more time. Bulls can push higher to tag the target, the lower edge of the Red Box = 16,260. Potentially the rally may extend to the…...
$ES $SPX $VIX #corrective a-b-c up pullback The US stock market will be closed on Thursday. This week has been the textbook pre-holiday calm week. On Monday ES-mini hit the first target/resistance = 4,561. Today ES-mini produced a very shallow pullback off that resistance down to the first support at…...
$ES #ES #trading setup Bulls keep pushing ES-mini towards the main resistance, a red trend line that connects previous highs. We keep watching two different macro scenarios: (1) the bearish “triangle” … and the (2) the Bullish “breakout” scenario: In both cases I expect to see bearish reaction to the…...
$ES #ES-mini #trading setup #triangle The only macro scenario that looks relatively reasonable for me is based on the assumption that since the top made in Jan’22 ES/SPX have been consolidating in a triangle shaped pattern: Under that scenario ES/SPX can continue the torture of directionless moves for another two…...
$NQ #NQ #trading futures #day trading This chart can be named “the thrill is gone”: Bulls built a base and then nothing came out of that base. Now let’s go micro and look at the 9 min chart: You can see signals produce by my proprietary indicator called the Cloud…...
$ES #ES #trading setup #OPEX I keep two options on the table. The bearish scenario is still alive: The nearest support is 4,430. ES Daily resistance for Friday 4,536.75. ES Daily support for Friday 4,510.75. On Thurdsay bears failed to produce any donward pressure. Moreover, bulls managed to push ES…...
$NQ #NQ #trading setup NQ-mini futures looks having completed a five wave up structure off the Oct’23 low: 15,850 remains the key support. Break under 15,850 would open the door for at east a corrective a-b-c down move with two targets:… This content is for Monthly Plan, Quarterly Plan, and...
$NQ #NQ #trading setup I did not expect that rally to climb that high. The strength of that rally annihilated bearish scenarios I favored. This is the only bullish scenario we are left with: This rally could only be counted as a subwave (a) of wave ( v ) up…....
$ES #ES #trading setup That spike completes the five wave up structure off the low made in late Oct’23: ES-mini Daily resistance for Tuesday is 4,435. Bears need to push ES-mini back under that level to confirm completion of the rally… This content is for Monthly Plan, Quarterly Plan, and...
$ES #ES #Macro The macro wave count / scenario we discussed on Sunday argues that bulls would be able to push ES-mini to 4,450 – 4,460 to complete the subwave (c) of a corrective wave ( ii ) up. we have had the Expanding Flat structure right into the resistance…...
$ES #ES #Macro #Expanded Flat On November 8, 2023 I Outlined three paths: This is what I wrote about the purple path: The purple path: Bulls can push ES up to 4,450 – 4,460 violate the previous high made in early Oct’23 (4,430) and trigger forced short covering that would propel…...
$ES #ES #trading setup Yesterday I shared an unfolding head and shoulders bearish reversal pattern. That pattern argues for a bounce off the neckline: Thi sis how that chart look slike now: We got a nice a-b-c up bounce in what I count as a corrective subwave -b- up. That…...
$ES #ES-mini ES-mini got rejected off that same Red Band 4,400-4,415: This is how ES -mini looks like after the rejection today: That chart looks exactly like the famous Wyckoff Distribution pattern: Ideally I would like ES to come back up to the Red Box to complete the Right Shoulder…...
$ES #ES-mini #trading setup #Elliott Wave Yesterday I showed the purple max pain scenario that allowed bulls to produce a fake breakout over the resistance band 4,400-4,415: I noted yesterday: The purple path: Bulls can push ES up to 4,450 – 4,460 violate the previous high made in early Oct’23 (4,430)…...
$ES #ES #Macro The extremely violent and rare early November rally hit the Supply zone 4,400-4,415 and stalled: Note that this same band 4,400-4,415 stopped several major up and down swings in 2023. I maintain a bearish macro view: (i) the rally in 2023 was a corrective wave (B) up…...
$ES #ES Bears had a chance to turn ES-mini down off the resistance 4,381. However, bears failed. Most likely this rally will test and push ES over 4,430, the October high. A break over the previous high would allow brokers to enforce margin calls and cover shorts of retail traders…....
$SPX $NQ #trading setups I am going to show you two amazing fractals that seem to be replaying by S&P 500 and NQ. Let’s start from S&P cash index: Look at the bearish reversal Head and Shoulders pattern formed at the top of 2021: Note that strong rally in April…...
$NQ $ES #ES-mini #trading setup #Elliott Wave I do not see any macro bullish scenario. I consider this short covering rally as a corrective bounce. I expect that bounce to top making a lower high. Let’s review two main scenarios I will be watching: The SCENARIO 1: Bearish: Running Flat…...
$NQ #NQ-mino Yesterday I noted that if bears fail to stop NQ at 15,000 the rally would extend up to 15,200. Now NQ has approached that target 2: Here bears will get another opportunity to start a new leg down in a wave -iii-…. This content is for Monthly Plan,...
$ES #ES-mini #trading setup On October 27 I noted that ES-mini hit an important support 4,160: This is what I wrote back then: “Today bulls managed to violate the key support. They broke the neck of the rally and confirmed there would be no higher highs over the Jan’22 highs…...
$NQ #NQ-mini #trading setup #Elliott Wave The steepness of this ascent and lack of a structure behind that rally leaves little doubts that we deal with a subwave -c- in a corrective -a-b-c- up structure: The main question is whether bears stop the rally at the lower edge of the…...
$ES #ES #Elliott Wave #trading setup #Inverse Head and Shoulders Yesterday I noted that if bulls manage to violate the resistance 4,273 my immediate bearish scenario will get invalidated: Overnight bulls continued to push higher and they solidly violated the resistance 4,276. That violation killed the immediate bearish scenario that…...
$ES #ES #trading setup Afternoon update, 2-40 PM EST Afternoon update, 3-50 PM EST Yesterday bulls completed a double three corrective structure, a combination of two a-b-c up structure. Bears had a chance to start a new leg down but failed. When such failure happens a bounce extends adding another…...
$NQ #NQ #trading setup I think we are dealing with a corrective bounce in a wave (b) up to be followed by another leg down in a wave (c) down: If we zoom-in to a tick bar chart we can see a completed corrective -w-x-y- up structur ebehind that move…...