$ES #ES #short setup Bears turned trend down both on Daily and weekly timeframes: These levels are calculated by my proprietary Cycle Trader Indicator for TradingView. Send me email to castawaytrader@gmail.com if you want to get a trial. The drop overnight failed to break under the low made by the first leg down in a … Read more
$BTCUSD #bitcoin Off the Aug’24 top BTC has produced an A down, B up, C down corrective structure, as we expected: BTCUSD 240 min chart I expect that decline to be followed by a new five wave up rally that can stretch up to 152,000: BTCUSD 240 min chart The key question is whether bears … Read more
$ES #ES #short setup Bulls pushed ES mini back up into the resistance of the Red Box: ES-mini 15 min chart ES keeps making slightly lower highs which is an encouraging sign for bears. Bears still have a setup to produce at least one more push lower. Target 1 / Micro support 1 = 6,662. … Read more
#ES $ES #short setup #a-b-c up bounce Yesterday morning we expected bulls to produce another push higher: ES-mini 15 min chart Bulls perfectly followed the path and pushed ES-mini up to the Red Target box: ES-mini 15 min chart Here ES is approaching our red Target Box where the whole -a- up, -b- down, -c- … Read more
$ES #long setup Normally a corrective bounce after such a strong drop like we did on Friday takes a lot of time and looks quite complex. This is why I think bulls can produce another push higher: ES-mini 15 min chart Note that I still count that rally we got on Monday as a part … Read more
$ES $SPX #Running Flat Last Friday we got a huge one day drop that sliced through a number of strong support levels: ES-mini 240 min chart Then we got a huge pullback that pushed ES back into the key Monthly Support 6,680. A broken support turned into a resistance: ES-mini Month Opening Range That is … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #Expanding Triangle That drop can complete a corrective structure of the subwave -b- down of wave -iii- up: ES-15 min chart There are two levels of support: For that bullish scenario bulls have to close a day over 6,711. posted at 12:39 PM EST That sharp drop does not fit the bullish scenario … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #corrective a-b-c dowb To start a new leg up in a subwave -c- of wave -iii- up bulls need to have a solid base, a completed a-b-c down pullback / consolidation. ES-mini 60 min chart I do not expect a deep pullback here. The ideal case for bulls is to let bears produce … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #Elliott Wave Yesterday bulls had a breakout setup that allowed them to start an accelerated phase of a rally. However, they tested the 6,800 level, the Monthly Resistance but soon bears manage to defend it pushing ES-mini back under that important level of resistance. Yesterday I published an additional intraday update at 10-56 … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #trading setup #ElliottWave ES keeps consolidating building a base under the key resistance 6,794: ES-mini 10 min chart Let’s zoom out to see a potential path of the rally: ES-mini 10 min chart Bulls here have a long -i- up, -ii- down setup that allows bulls to trigger an accelerated rally in a … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #Month Opening Range #breakout #long setup ES-mini has formed a new Month Opening Range for October 2025: Monthly Resistance for October is 6,800 Monthly Support for October is 6,705 Yesterday in the weekend update I shared a very bullish scenario. This morning we have got a complete looking micro -a-b-c- down structure that … Read more
$ES $NQ $RTY #Weekend It sounds crazy but NQ has potential for a large extension of that already overextended rally: NQ-mini 240 min chart The current wave ( iii ) up can rally extend another 10% up to 27,200 – 27,800 before we can call it complete. zooming-in: NQ-mini 240 min chart If bears manage … Read more
$ES #Running Flat Here bulls have a setup to start an accelerated rally under an alternative Very bullish scenario: ES-mini 10 min chart This short move down can be counted as a subwave c that completes a correctve a-b-c down structure setting the stage for another rally. We can set a protective stop under 6,736. … Read more
$NQ #Elliott Wave The bullish wave count allows bulls to push NQ much higher: NQ-mini 120 min chart On a micro count we did not get a long setup this week to confidently go long to ride the expected strongest part of the rally in a subwave -c- of wave -iii- up. It is possible … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #breakout Bears had to break under 6,597 support. They tried once but failed. Failure of bears to break support and start a move down can inspire bulls to start a new leg up: ES-mini 240 min chart Let’s zoom in to a 10 min chart: ES-mini 10 min chart Break over the Daily … Read more
#ES #breakdown #a-b-c down After surprisingly strong rally we got on Sunday night that hit the Red Box on Monday morning bulls got exhausted: ES-mini 15 min chart Yesterday Bears stepped in and drove ES back down to the breakout line = 6,694. A broken resistance always turns into a support. As we can see, … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #Elliottwave ES is in a runaway mode. I expected bears to produce a micro pullback before another leg up starts. But it continued climbing overnight: ES-mini 15 min chart We can count that move up as a corrective -a-b-c- up. But I can not call that wave count a reliable one. I do … Read more
#ES $ES #corrective a-b-c up pullback #Weekend We have been tracking the corrective looking action off the Sep’25 high as an unfolding (a) down, (b) up, (c) down structure: ES-mini 15 min chart The -a-b-c- down structure of the wave (a) down bottomed on Thu, Sep 25. Off that low made last Thursday we have … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #corrective a-b-c up Yesterday we correctly predicted extension of the decline down to the Green Demand zone” ES-mini 240 min chart posted on Thursday, 26 Sep 2025 This is how bears pushed ES lower down into the Green Demand Zone: ES-mini 240 min chart I count the drop into the green demand zone … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #first a-b-c move down ES-mini topped very close to the Red Target box and rolled over: ES-mini 240 min chart The green demand zone that started at 6,647. I have coded and made available for subscribers of my indicators a new very powerful tool that detects cycles of different periods and classifies peaks … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #topping This rally could be 99.9% done. You should get very careful playing longs here: ES-mii 240 min chart We have been tracking the move up off the April 2025 low as an impulsive five wave up structure. That structure looks very much completed. Let’s zoom in to a 5 min micro chart: … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #trading setup #Elliott Wave I my weekend update I concluded: We can move the critical support // invalidation level up to 6,687 (Friday morning low). As long as bulls hold ES-mini over that level, bulls will be in control and will be able to produce another micro five wave up structure up top … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #topping #rally extension #weekend We have been accurately tracking an unfolding impulsive structure off the major low made in April 2025. For several months that wave count helped us to stay on the right side of a trade, we kept expecting higher highs to be made after each successive pullback. On the 240 … Read more
#ES-mini $ES #bullish path Our bullish wave count allowed us to correctly predict a corrective pullback and correctly anticipate where that pullback would find support (see the Green Demand zone). The base case wave count allows bulls to push ES-mini up to 6,729. ES-mini 20 min chart I can share a more bullish wave count … Read more
$ES #ES-mini That was our micro path for yesterday: ES-mini 15 min chart published on Sep 17, 2025 Yesterday ES perfectly followed the black segment up and then plunged in the red segment into the Green Demand Zone. We expected that the drop will be bought out and failure of bears to break under that … Read more
$ES #ES-mini $NQ #FOMC To keep alive the potential for one more push higher bulls will have to stop the leakage at the green demand zone: ES-mini 240 min chart Let’s zoom in: ES-mini 15 min chart’ Scenario B: Breakdown: If bears manage to break the key support 6,579 the next target 1 would be … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #first test of support #topping ES has made enough micro waves and hit the first Red Box: ES-mini 240 min chart This is where bears get the first setup to turn the trend down. Let’s zoom-in: ES-mini 240 min chart It is possible to count ES mini as having topped. However, At this … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #ElliottWave #tradingsetup Bulls are pushing ES-mini higher extending the rally in the final innings of the micro wave -iii- up: ES-mini 240 min chart ES has made enough micro waves to complete a micro wave -iii- up pre-market: ES-mini 15 min chart We can expect a shallow micro wave -iv- down that can … Read more
$ES #ES-mii #Elliott Wave Yesterday bulls pushed ES higher without re-testing the broken Monthly Resistance 6,616.25: As I noted several times this week, bulls had and they still have room to push ES-mini higher to tag the Macro Red Box that starts at 6,673: ES-mini 120 min chart Let’s zoom in to a 15 min … Read more
$ES #Es-mini #mental rules #getting to a Pro level Nothing changed in my macro view. The market has room to push higher (see the Red Box): ES-mini 120 min chart This push up could still be counted as a micro subwave b up that despite its corrective nature managed to make a new All Time … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #nailed Yesterday morning I shared the Max pain scenario that allowed bulls to extend a corrective rally to the Red Box drawn on a 5 min chart: ES-mini 5 min chart posted pre-market on Sep 10, 2025 This is how that chart looks like now: ES-mini 5 min chart Then at midday I … Read more
$ES #ES-mini Es-mini 5 min chart Note the repeating pattern: a sharp drop in a subwave a down, followed by a slow, grinding recovery move up. That recovery often takes two, three, or even four times longer just to return to the starting point of the drop. This type of sluggish advance is a strong … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #flat a-b-c #consolidation #re-accumulation The Friday drop looked scary and questioned continuation of the rally. To heal the damage we need to get a deep bounce in a corrective subwave b up (like we are having now) followed by another decline in a subwave c: ES-mini 5 min chart In that case a … Read more
$S&P500 $SPX #MACRO I keep posting micro long setups for weeks and they have been working fine. But we are quickly approaching a traditionally bearish period of time. look at the normal seasonality chart of S&P 500: You can see a very bearish seasonal decline off a peak that is normally made in the middle … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #rally extension ES mini keeps climbing higher as expected: ES- mini 120 min Lets look at a micro count: ES-mini 5 min chart The pre-market drop can be consider a micro wave iv down and that push higher can be counted as a micro wave v up of -a- of -iii- up. That … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #long setup When we see a wave -i- up followed by a quick a-b-c move down, the base case is straightforward: the market is completing a corrective wave -ii- down, setting the stage for bulls to launch a strong wave -iii- up rally. But quite often, that initial a-b-c move down happens so … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #long setup #flat consoldiation Our bullish wave count treats the low made yesterday as subwave (b) down of wave (v) up.This interpretation means the bulls have a strong setup for another five-wave rally targeting the Red Box. Yesterday I noted: “If we get a strong recovery back over 6,432, that would be a decent … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #failed breakdown #bullish reversal The move up that topped in mid Aug 2025 fell short off the normal targets for a wave ( v ) up, the final push up for an impulsive sequence. This is why I labelled it as a wave (b) up, a failed attempt to produce an impulsive rally. … Read more
$ES #ES_mini #Short Setup #Failed Breakdown The Friday drop could be counted as a subwave -c- of a corrective -a- down, -b- up, -c- down corrective structure. ES-mini 120 min chart That is a very bullish scenario. But in that case bulls can not allow bears to violate the low made at 6,455 on Friday. … Read more
$ES #ES-mii #Elliott Wave #long setup #tradimg setup PCE data has been released without any surprise. I think that slow grinding rally we got this week was a premature attempt of bulls to make the final push higher targeting the Red Box: ES-mini 120 min chart Let’s zoom-in: ES-mini 120 min chart This is what … Read more