$ES #micro Yesterday I explained the (w)-(x)-(y) corrective structure of the pullback that started in Oct 2022. Today I will share two micro counts. The first one is bearish and it argues that ES-mini has made a major top yesterday: The main problem with “the top is in” scenario is that wave (y) up fell … Read more
$ES #macro #trading setup In my previous update I shared a path for a rally from 4,075 to 4,250. In one day bulls made a strong rally that covered significant part of that trip: The main idea behind that wave count is that we deal with a large corrective bounce off the October 2022 low … Read more
$ES #es-mini futures #trading setup The big idea behind the bullish expectations is that to complete the corrective (w) up, (x) down (y) up structure, bulls should push (y) up to the minimum required 76.4% ext of wave (w) up = 4,254: To break neck of this bullish structure bears need to violate the immediate … Read more
$NQ #macro #trading setup Tomorrow we have a very strong catalyst for the market, first FOMC will announce its decision about another rate hike, and, second, the Chairman Jerome Powell will share his intentions about further rate hikes for the year at 2-30 PM EST. I consider the move up off the October 2022 low … Read more
$NQ #Macro In the previous update we correctly predicted a move down. We noted that bears had a setup to start a new leg down in a large wave C down that should make a new lower low under the low made in Oct 2022. But at the same we warned you that bears may … Read more
$SPX #MACRO #forceast #fractal analysis Nothing is new under the sun. Over the weekend I scrolled back through the last 70 years of history and found several very similar fractals, patterns of similar corrections played out by S&P 500: On the left you can see a similar correction played out by S&P 500 in 2002 … Read more
$NQ #macro #trading setup #Double Three The move up off the October 2022 low looks corrective and hit an important resistance: Note three clean moves off the October 2002 low: wave (w) up that topped in early December 2022, then wave (x) down that bottomed at the end of Dec 2002, and then, finally wave … Read more
$ES #micro #macro #trading plan #trading setup #es-mini This is how the big picture looks like: Bulls are trying to break out over the declining red trend line. Everybody expects a strong rally triggered by successful breakout over that line. But that path higher could be much trickier. I count the whole move up off … Read more
$ES #trading setup The morning drop set a bears’ trap and now bulls can play a breakout over that red trendline we discussed here and here pushing ES-mini higher at expense of short sellers who will have to cover: Bulls consider the morning drop as a micro corrrective wave ii down that should be followed … Read more
$ES #macro #trading setup In my yesterday update I shared my doubts about considering the extremely bullish action on Friday-Monday a true breakout. In fact, bulls tried to break over that red trend line six times but failed: That makes me think that even if they finally manage to break over that line, that move … Read more
$ES $SPX #Macro Many analysts claimed that S&P broke over the trend line that connected several previous tops yesterday. As you can see on the chart, it did not break over that red trend line as of now. However, every new bulls attack on that line makes resistance weaker. There is a rule of breakout … Read more
$ES #intraday micro update #trading setup I consider that a-b-c- up consolidation off the low made yesterday as a corrective wave iv up: I expect another push down that could violate the low made at 3,891.50 on Jan 10th. If bears first break under that level and bulls quickly recapture it, that would trigger an … Read more
$ES #trading strategy #Month Opening Range This is a great example of how mighty the Month Opening Range strategy is. Read description of that strategy in my free blog Price broke out of the range, then came back down to re-test the Monthly Resistance from above and then rallied hard. In cases like that, a … Read more
$ES #macro #trading setup For several weeks we have been watching that Red Target box that could stop the rally started in December 2022: Bears had two main arguments: (1) the move up had a clean corrective -a-b-c- up subdivision and (2) the rally made a lower high into the resistance of the Red Trend … Read more
$ES #Macro In addition to our primary bearish scenario we have to consider two alternative mid term bullish counts: Note the red declining red trend line. Bulls pushed price to yet another lower high and stopped under the resistance. Let’s look at the Daily chart of ES-mini futures: Here we see the very same declining … Read more
$NQ #macro #daily #trading setup There are two macro wave counts I can identify here. Let’s start from my primary bearish one: The bearish count argues that this rally is a corrective bounce in subwave (b) up to be followed by a decline in subwave (c) down to a new lower low. The micro structure … Read more
$ES #trading setup Bulls pumped up the market into the Red Target box based on expectation sthat CPI data will be softer and confirn that inflation has peaked. But the data was released in line with expectations: Now we have a pumped up market into the resistance without a positive data to support it. Bears … Read more
$ES #macro Yesterday ES-mini futures finally completed the rally as we expected: ES tested the Red Target Box yesterday in a rally that looked like a textbook subwave c of a corrective a-b-c up structure: In such corrective structures the bullish sentiment reaches its peak at completion of the second leg up, the subwave -c- … Read more
$RTY #240 min #corrective a-b-c up pullback #trading setup RTY hit confluence of two fib levels and 200 MA on 240 min chart: The move up off the low looks like a corrective -a-b-c- up bounce that has just retraced 41.4% of the preceding five wave down move. That is a textbook target for a … Read more
$ES #Macro #trading setup This is the straightforward very bearish count that was widely adopted by the market in Dec 2022: In November – December everyone expected the market to crash to new lower lows. Everyone was talking wave 3 of (3) down even though those guys did not have good understanding of the Elliott … Read more
$RTY #macro #daily #trading setup I consider the decline off the November’22 high as a subwave (a) of the final wave Y of (Y ) down: Ideally that subwave (a) down should break under the double bottom made in 2022 at 1,665: The decline off the Nov’22 top in subwave (a) down can be counted … Read more
$ES #trading setup #i up – ii down setup Yesterday we got the final spike up making a slighly lower high to complete that boring consolidation shaped as a triangle. To confirm completion of the corrective wave -b- up shaped as the triangle bears need to break under 3,836 minor support. The bearish triangle pattern … Read more
$ES #ES-mini futures #trading setup ES continues to consolidate in a 120 point range (3,920 – 3,800). That triangle shaped consolidation looks like a bearish pennant on a daily chart: The next strong support is the Green Band located in between of 3,700 and 3,600. A drop to that green band would most likely be … Read more
$ES #Macro #Daily #i down – ii up setup #trading setup Since ES bottomed on Dec 22nd it has been consolidating in a narrow range. That tells us that bulls have been trying to turn ES up but a week later all they could accomplish is retrace only 1/3 of the preceeding decline. That inability … Read more
$RTY #Macro #Daily #W-X-Y correction #trading setup On a daily chart of RTY-mini futures shown below you can see the whole (W) down, (X) up, (Y) down complex corrective structure that started at the top made in Nov 2021: On that chart you can clearly see a repeating cycle (see vertical lines). That cycle started … Read more
$CL #Crude Oil #Macro analysis #Daily #trading setup Cycle analysts noted that Crude oil normally leads the equity market by 30 – 45 days. This is why that major crossroad in Crude is so important for the stock market. The bullish scenario argues that crude oil made a lasting bottom in December 2022: You can … Read more
$ES #Macro #Daily #i down – ii up setup #trading setup Last week bears managed to break under support 3,945: Since then ES-mini has been consolidating in a shallow pullback that is supposed to be followed by another leg down that will most likely test the October lows. It is possible that the consolidation stage … Read more
$TSLA #Macro #tradingsetup A huge corrective (W)-(X)-(Y) down structure looks complete: The stock dropped to important support from September – October 2020. A the very least I would expect a bounce targeting 180sh in the first half of 2023. During a Twitter Spaces event Thursday, Musk said he would not sell any Tesla stock for … Read more
$NG #Daily #Macro #tradingsetup On a Daily chart we can see how NG is completing a huge (A)-(B)-(C) down corrective structure: Let’s zoom in to a 30 min chart: NG looks having completed the micro structure of the final push down. We can clearly see five micro waves down inside the final subwave C for … Read more
$ES-mini #trading setup #i down – ii up setup This is the macro picture: We are getting a corrective a-b-c consolidation UNDER the broken support 3,945. The ideal scenario for bears is to let bulls come back up in an a-b-c corrective fashion in desperate attempt to reclaim that important support. I expect that bulls … Read more
$ES #trading setup #i down – ii up setup As we expected here, here and here, the market produced a two day bounce. But the big picture remains strongly bearish: Last week ES-mini futures broke under support 3,945. This week we got a weak bounce as we expected. This morning bears broke under the lower … Read more
$ES #Daily #micro #trading setup #i down- ii up short setup ES-mini futures seem having bottomed in the first a-b-c- move down off the December high: That a-b-c down move labelled as a wave i down should be followed by a corrective bounce in a wave ii up: If you look at the daily chart … Read more
$ES $SPX #DAILY #micro #i down – ii up setup Last week I noted that SPX was approaching a fat unfilled gap up left by a runaway October rally. On Friday we hit that gap up and started to consolidate: Let’s zoom out and look at a daily chart of ES-mini: Last week ES-mini dropped … Read more
$QQQ #micro #1 down – 2 up setup On the chart below you can see a crystal clean (a)-(b)-(c) up corrective structure of a bounce off the October low: I count that (a)-(b)-(c) up move as a corrective wave B up that topped. That means a new leg down targeting new lower lows has started. … Read more
$SPX #micro #wave i down – ii up S&P 500 cash index has a very clean wave count: We can see a completed (a) up, (b) down, (c) up structure of a bounce off the October 2022 low. I count that bounce as a corrective wave B up that has to be followed by a … Read more
$ES #micro #trading setup ES-mini futures finally violated the support 3,945: It has been our target for the first move down and the first support we have been watching. Now even under the bearish count we could expect a bounce. The Rule of thumb says: “every time a widely watched support gets violated bulls step … Read more
$ORCL #WEEKLY #2023 forecast A huge rally in $ORCL topped in November 2021: Upon completion of a five wave up rally we always expect a large A down, B up C down structure. Let’s zoom in: The normal target for that A-B-C down is to re-test the low made by wave 4 down of one … Read more
$NQ #trading setup So far NQ-mini has topped in the (a)-(b)-(c) move up off the October low at a strong confluence of two fibs: Note those two fib levels highlighted with red arrows: – 123.6% ext of subwave (a) up and – 50% retracement of the decline off the Aug high. I really see a … Read more
$ES #Daily #trading setup #macro The rally off the October low started from a huge intraday bullish reversal (see the green circle on the chart below): On Tuesday morning ES-mini spiked over the previous high but got brutally faded leaving behind a long wick, a sign that price finally reached an area where a lot … Read more
#NQ #Daily #Macro #Micro #trading setup We can count the decline off the top made in November 2021 as an unfolding Double Three corrective structure: The Double Three corrective structure is compose of two A-B-C down structures. We can count the move up off October 2022 low as a corrective wave B up. Then we … Read more