$ES #short trading setup #broken bearish wedge #Month Opening Range Tomorrow we will start a volatile week packed with news catalysts including CPI scheduled on Tuesday, FOMC decision and a press-conference by Jerome Powell on Wednesday, and, finally, PMI on Friday morning. In addition , that will be an OPEX week. What will make things … Read more
#ES #ES-mini futures #Daily #Macro #Trading setup I count the whole structure of the decline off the top made in Jan 2022 as a complex Double Three structure: That type of a corrective structures is composed if two large A-B-C down structures. To complete that structure we ned to get at least one more move … Read more
#NQ #Daily #Macro #Micro #trading setup My main assumption behind that bearish wave count is that (a)-(b)-(c) up pullback off the October 2022 low has topped: Any countertrend (a)-(b)-(c), a three wave pullback, making a lower high is a setup for bears to drive price to a new lower low. The blue line is 20 … Read more
#macro #DJIA #Daily #Expanding Flat I my previous bearish update I noted that “Dow played out a macro short failed breakout setup. It first popped over the Aug 22 top 34,339 but then dropped back under that level. We got a tricky corrective Expanded Flat A up, B down, C up structure where B down … Read more
#macro #weekly #cycle analysis #FLD #Hurst JM Hurst proposed using the tool called Future Line of Demarcation to identify underlying cycles. In essense FLD is price of a stock shifted by n bars forward. That lets a trader quickly identify potential turning points. My favorite periods are 8 and 21. Let’s look at how SPY … Read more
#ES #macro #weekend update #trading setup I count the move up off the October low as subwave C of wave (B) up: That move up will complete a corrective A up, B down, C up consolidation off the major low made by the first A-B-C move down that bottomed in June 2022 (labelled (A) down). … Read more
#nq #weeken update #macro update #daily #trading setup We can count the move up off the October 2022 low as a corrective (a) up, (b) down, (c) up bounce and that so far topped at 50% retracement level: As we discussed last week: NQ stopped at confluence of several important levels: 123.6% ext of subwave … Read more
#trading setup Yesterday I concluded that NQ was going to drop into the Green Box even under the bullish scenario: This morning we got that drop: Bulls can consider the drop as a subwave c of a corrective a-b-c down structure of subwave -b- down of wave -v- up. That means bulls remain in control … Read more
#macro #daily #short #Expanded Flat #failed breakout #trading setup Note that Dow played out a macro short failed breakout setup. It first popped over the Aug 22 top 34,339 but then dropped back under: We got a tricky Expanded Flat corrective A up, B down, C up structure where B down mad a lower low … Read more
#daily #tradingsetup #macro #micro #Harmonic Elliott Wave I count the (a)-(b)-(c) up move up off the October 2022 low as a corrective bounce: NQ has approached a resistance formed by: – 50% retracement applied to teh preceding decline and – 123.6% ext of the first leg up off the low labelled as (a) up. Let’s … Read more
#macro #trading setup #daily In our macro update posted yesterday, I concluded that “bulls have room for one more push higher into the apex of a wedge”. Today we got a strong rally making a higher high: First look at those blue vertical lines. They connect major turning points in 2022. The beauty of those … Read more
#macro #daily #3-3-3 structure #bear market rally #trading setup This is the right time to zoom-out and look at the big picture. I count the move up off the October low as a corrective (a)-(b)-(c) up bounce: Note that this move up is shaped as a bearish ascending wedge. That is good for bears because … Read more
#weekly #2023 #forecast #trading setup That sharp drop in $DXY (US Dollar index) we got in November 2023 is how typically a corrective wave 4 of (C) of ( 3 ) looks like: According to the main five wave up fractal proposed by the Harmonic Elliott wave theory, that sharp drop should be followed by … Read more
#trading setup #bearish reversal #one more push higher #micro update In the Weekend update I reaffirmed my bearish expectations for ES-mini. But on a micro scale bulls have not tested the Red Target box yet. During the shortened trading session last Friday ES-mini topped at 4,049.25, inches under the Red Target box For ideal completion … Read more
#trading setup #macro #daily #corrective Off the October low Nasdaq produced a wek (a) up, (b) down, (c) up bounce that managed to retrace only 50% of the preceding decline labelled wave A down: 50% retracement fib is a typical target for weak rallies in bear markets. The fact that the move up has been … Read more
#weekend #toppying #threewavepullback #trading #tradingsetup ES-mini futures is about to top in a corrective three wave up rally off the low made on Oct 13, 2022: That corrective rally is approaching a very important 66.7% retracement = 4,062.50. Let’s zoom in to 30 min chart: Here you can see that subwave (c) up is clearly … Read more
The Bearish Daily count argues that the (a)-(b)-(c) up bounce off the October low got completed and bears have a setup to start another leg down: If we zoom in to 240 min chart we can see that bears have a clean setup for decline in subwave c down targeting 11,200 – 10,900: To trigger … Read more
An FLD (or future line of demarcation) is an instrument suggested by J.M.Hurst. In essence its just High, Low, Close displaced by n bars. I use two periods, 8 and 21. The weekly chart of DJIA shown below showing the high price displaced by 8 bars suggests it can top this upcoming week: During 2022 … Read more
THE WEEKEND MACRO REPORT Off the Top made in Nov’21 RTY has been following a large corrective structure called “3-3-3” or the Double Three: First look at the first three wave down move labelled (W) down (bottomed in May 2022). Then look at a tricky three wave up bounce labelled as wave (X) up (topped … Read more
The rally off the October low has a clean (a) – (b) -(c) up corrective structure: NQ spiked to 50% retracement applied to the preceding decline labelled with red letter A and got rejected. Under that count this pullback should be followed by another five wave down or three wave down decline targeting new lower … Read more
We can count the rally off the Sep 22 low as a Triple Three corrective structure: The Triple Three is a complex corrective structure that is a combination of three simple a-b-c structures interconnected by two technical aves labelled as (x) and (xx). Note the rally stopped right at 66.7% retracement applied to the preceding … Read more
Crude Oil has completed a long -i- up, -ii- down setup for a new rally: Note it looks like an Inverse Head and Shoulders! Target 1 = 97.00 Target 2 = 100.00
The morning a release of a better than expected PPI data triggered a spike up in NQ-mini: NQ spiked to the weekly resistance:12,126 – 12,154. That move up completes the corrective looking (a)-(b)-(c) up structure off the October low. I expect bears to step in and turn NQ down. Support 1 = 11,729. Support 2 … Read more
The morning spike triggered by better than expected PPI data pushed ES-mini higher: That rally may tag 4,060sh or even stretch to 200 MA on Daily that currently stands at 4,087. But upon completion of that spike at the Red Target box I expect a bearish reversal and a corrective -a-b-c move down that should … Read more
I have just published a recording of my live presentation at on-line “Friendsgiving 2022 Conference” that held today on Nov 14th. In the video I share my macro scenarios for ES-mini, NQ-mini, Dow-mini, Bitcoin and GDX. This is the full list of topics discussed: 1:35 The five wave up pattern is the backbone of the … Read more
We can count five micro waves behind that rally off the October low: I count that five wave up rally as the final subwave C of a corrective wave (B) up: Bulls can push YM mini futures a bit higher into the Red Box but every move up at this point would look like a … Read more
I still believe this rally is a corrective three wave bounce in wave B up. Below I will share with you two most probable path for this rally to complete. (1) Scenario 1: The most painful for bulls: Under the scenario 1 the spiky move up triggered by Consumer Price Index numbers published last Thursday … Read more
The most tricky corrective pattern is the Expanding Triangle. It’s barely possible to identify it until the very last moment when it is about to get completed. That structure is composed of five subwaves labelled a-b-c-d-e and every subwave has a clean subdivision into three small waves: That wave count argues that the crazy short … Read more
I can make a case that TSLA made a major bottom: Even if we get a corrective A-B-C up bounce, it can erase 50% of the decline.
FOMC, CPI and NFP days normally bring crazy volatility. Sometimes unexpected data triggers very strong directional moves. Today was not something unusual in terms of strength and size of a move. We got a very similar strong rally in August and it was driven by Consumer Price Index data as well. Yesterday I shared a … Read more
Decline in Crude oil has tagged the Green Box, a minimum required target for subwave -c-, at a 76.4% extension of subwave -a- down: In Running Flat corrective structures that is the standard target for subwave -c- down. It is possible that Crude turns up from here. However, its equally probable to expect crude to … Read more
Note how important that June low level became. This is exactly where bulls failed yesterday. As long as Bears hold NQ under 11,850 down will remain teh path of te least resistance. In contrast, a break back over 11,850 would be a strong signal to exit shorts and consider going long.
I called the previous update posted yesterday: “A Break Under 1,800 Would Trigger A 100+ Point Drop”. Today RTY dropped under support 1,800, then came back up to re-test it from above. Bulls failed to reclaim that support and RTY made another move down: That decline can be counted as subwave -c- down and therefore … Read more
A triangle corrective pattern in DXY (USD index) looks having completed: Bulls have a decent setup to start pushing USD index higher again towards 117 – 119.50. That is a bad news for equities and precious metals that are normally inversely correlated to USD.
That November move up looks like a corrective pullback and is shaped as an ascending bearish flag: I count that move up as a subwave -b- up setting up for another leg down in subwave -c- down. A safe approach to trade that move would be to wait until bears push RTY back under 1,800 … Read more
The majority of traders who use Elliott Wave theory continues to expect ES-mini to start a very strong decline: That super bearish scenario is a feasible scenario indeed. There is one more path to a lower low that also makes sense: Under that Scenario 2 ES-mini may drop to 3,570 and find a temporary support … Read more
In that update I will not show you any bullish scenarios. Let me explain why: Note those three (a) up, (b) down, (c) up structures look almost identical! That clean (a)-(b)-(c) structure with elongated (c) up is the main hallmark of a corrective structure. Each of them started from a fresh lower low but made … Read more
We continue to follow two bearish structures of a large pullback off the top made in November 2021: (1) the Very Bearish Scenario: The Very Bearish scenario considers the move down off the all time high made in Nov’21 as a simple (A)-(B)-(C) down corrective structure where wave (C) is supposed to have an impulsive … Read more
Let’s start from an alternative bullish macro scenario: As long as bulls manage to hold NQ over 10,484 they can pray on that bullish (i) up, (ii) down structure that can deliver a 1,100 point bear market rally targeting 12,880. Note that even under that bullish alt scenario this rally would complete a large corrective … Read more
RTY-mini has been consolidating on Thursday after the strong decline, a reaction to the bearish statements of the FED Chairman on Wednesday: That flat and shallow a-b-c up consolidation is setting the stage for another leg down targeting to retest September-October Double Bottom made at 1,640. Remember, price does not travel in a straight line … Read more