NQ-mini: Initial Positive Reaction on NFP May Later Lead to a Breakdown

  • CastAwayTrader
  • November 3, 2022
Supercharge Your Trading
Learn More
Get an edge
over millions of other traders
Use our proprietary TradingView indicators
Learn More
Get Our Indicators for Free
subscribe for a trial of the Limited Plus Account
Start Trial
Previous
Next

< Back to All Updates

Let’s start from an alternative bullish macro scenario:

NQ-mini Daily “Bullish scenario” chart

As long as bulls manage to hold NQ over 10,484 they can pray on that bullish (i) up, (ii) down structure that can deliver a 1,100 point bear market rally targeting 12,880.

Note that even under that bullish alt scenario this rally would complete a large corrective A up, B down, C up structure and set the stage for a new strong leg down.

Conclusion No.1: Break under 10,484 would invalidate that alt bullish scenario.

Now let’s look at the VERY BEARISH scenario:

NQ-mini futures, “The Very Bearish” scenario

That “Very Bearish” wave count does not have any flaws. It argues that NQ-mini futures is about to start the strongest and most accelerated part of a decline in subwave (c) of wave (iii ) down targeting 9,700, then after a shallow pullback, 8,930.

Now lets look how that Macro Bearish count may play out on a micro scale tomorrow:

NQ-mini, 30 min chart

If we get an initial positive reaction on Non Farm Payroll scheduled at 8-30 AM EST, but then price turns down and drops under 10,484 that would be a very strong argument in favor of that bearish path.

Under that Very Bearish Scenario:

The first destination is 100% extension of subwave -a- of wave -iii- down = 9,700, then a shallow pullback in a micro wave -iv- up to 10, 100 and then another push down in a micro wave -v- of (c) of ( iii ) down targeting 9,000 – 8,900.

(3) The Primary Bearish “3-3-3” count.

Finally, there is one more scenario I really like:

NQ-Daily, Primary Scenario

Under that scenario NQ will break down under support 10,484 but would find a strong support at 10,000 – 9,800.

NQ-mini may bottom in subwave (c) of wave (v) of A at 9,800, 176.4% ext of wave (i) of A.

Upon completion of that drop in wave A down bulls would play a failed breakdown bullish reversal scenario and push NQ-mini back over 10,000 in an (a) up, (b) down, (c) up structure of wave B up targeting 11,700 – 11,800.

That wave B up may top either at the end of December or at the beginning of January (360 degrees from the top made by SPX on Jan 4th, 2022!) :

NQ-mini Daily chart

Note that even under that scenario, a bear market rally in wave B up of (Y) down would inevitably followed by the final climatic drop in wave C of (Y) down in 2023.

Subscribe to Free Updates

Get Unlimited Access

PrevPreviousRTY-mini: Setting the Stage for Another Leg Down
NextNQ-mini: The Weekend Macro UpdateNext

More To Explore

ES: Bears Have a Setup to Turn ES Down

$ES #ES-mini futures #trading setup #wave C down Yesterday bulls hit the Red Target box under the Bullish scenario: The can push higher into the Red Box to tag the Target 2 = 4,106.25. Note

CastAwayTrader March 31, 2023

ES: A Crispy Clean Diagonal Wave Count

$ES #ES-mini futures I found a really clean wave count that can be used for forecasting the next big move in ES-mini. Let’s first start from our primary bearish wave count on a daily timeframe:

CastAwayTrader March 30, 2023

Important Disclaimer

CastAway Trader LLC, the publisher of this web-site and videos is not registered as an investment adviser nor a broker/dealer with either the U. S. Securities & Exchange Commission or any state securities regulatory authority. Users of the website www.castawaytrader.com and viewers of the videos are advised that all information presented on the website is solely for informational purposes, is not intended to be used as a personalized investment recommendation, and is not attuned to any specific portfolio or to any user’s particular investment needs or objectives.

Trading stocks, options, or futures carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Before deciding to trade, you should carefully consider your objectives, financial situation, needs and level of experience. CastAway Trader LLC provides general overview of trading methods that does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. The content of this website must not be construed as personal advice. All trading setups and/or trades presented in the web site and/or trading chat room by CastAway Trader an/or by other members of the chat should be considered hypothetical for educational purposes only and should not be expected to be replicated in a live trading account.

An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment. You should not speculate with capital that you cannot afford to lose. Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading. Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing ones’ financial security or life style.

You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading. You should seek advice from an independent financial advisor.

Any information posted on this web site is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, nor is it to be construed as a recommendation to buy, hold or sell (short or otherwise) any security. All users of the website must determine for themselves what specific investments to make or not make and are urged to consult with their own independent financial advisors with respect to any investment decision. The reader bears responsibility for his/her own investment research and decisions, should seek the advice of a qualified securities professional before making any investment, and investigate and fully understand any and all risks before investing. All opinions, analyses and information posted on the website are based on sources believed to be reliable and written in good faith, but should be independently verified, and no representation or warranty of any kind, express or implied, is made, including but not limited to any representation or warranty concerning accuracy, completeness, correctness, timeliness or appropriateness. In addition, CastAwayTrader LLC and its officers and employees undertake no responsibility to notify such opinions, analyses or information or to keep such opinions, analyses or information current. Also be aware that the owners, officers and employees of the web site www.castawaytrader.com may have long or short positions in securities that may be discussed on the website, Premium Trading Chat room and/or in the videos posted by CastAway Trader LLC.

Past results are not indicative of future profits.

Subscribe to Free Updates

Get Unlimited Access