Let’s start from an alternative bullish macro scenario:
As long as bulls manage to hold NQ over 10,484 they can pray on that bullish (i) up, (ii) down structure that can deliver a 1,100 point bear market rally targeting 12,880.
Note that even under that bullish alt scenario this rally would complete a large corrective A up, B down, C up structure and set the stage for a new strong leg down.
Conclusion No.1: Break under 10,484 would invalidate that alt bullish scenario.
Now let’s look at the VERY BEARISH scenario:
That “Very Bearish” wave count does not have any flaws. It argues that NQ-mini futures is about to start the strongest and most accelerated part of a decline in subwave (c) of wave (iii ) down targeting 9,700, then after a shallow pullback, 8,930.
Now lets look how that Macro Bearish count may play out on a micro scale tomorrow:
If we get an initial positive reaction on Non Farm Payroll scheduled at 8-30 AM EST, but then price turns down and drops under 10,484 that would be a very strong argument in favor of that bearish path.
Under that Very Bearish Scenario:
The first destination is 100% extension of subwave -a- of wave -iii- down = 9,700, then a shallow pullback in a micro wave -iv- up to 10, 100 and then another push down in a micro wave -v- of (c) of ( iii ) down targeting 9,000 – 8,900.
(3) The Primary Bearish “3-3-3” count.
Finally, there is one more scenario I really like:
Under that scenario NQ will break down under support 10,484 but would find a strong support at 10,000 – 9,800.
NQ-mini may bottom in subwave (c) of wave (v) of A at 9,800, 176.4% ext of wave (i) of A.
Upon completion of that drop in wave A down bulls would play a failed breakdown bullish reversal scenario and push NQ-mini back over 10,000 in an (a) up, (b) down, (c) up structure of wave B up targeting 11,700 – 11,800.
That wave B up may top either at the end of December or at the beginning of January (360 degrees from the top made by SPX on Jan 4th, 2022!) :
Note that even under that scenario, a bear market rally in wave B up of (Y) down would inevitably followed by the final climatic drop in wave C of (Y) down in 2023.