In my previous update I noted that if we apply Gann’s 45 day cycle we may expect RTY to top on Oct 31st. It did top on Nov the 1st! As you can see on the chart, RTY topped in my red target box. Please check my previous update. Now we can apply that same … Read more
I have two bearish macro scenarios on my table. (1) The Bearish Scenario 1 considers the October rally as a corrective bounce in subwave C of wave 4 up: That rally is shaped as an ascending bearish wedge. It should be followed by a strong impulsive decline in subwave A of wave 5 down targeting … Read more
RTY-mini futures stretched higher overnight and tagged the upper edge of the ascending bearish looking wedge: RTY has made enough waves to complete a corrective (w)-(x)-(y) up structure. It hit the upper edge of the Red Target box pre-market. Bears need to break under the lower blue trend line to give traders the first warning … Read more
This A up, B down, C up consolidation that started at the end of September looks kike a corrective wave 4 up: If we zoom-in to 30 min chart we could make a micro count that fits that macro: Under the micro we can see ES-mini stretching higher to make one more higher high and … Read more
Off the all time high made in Niov’21, Russell has been leaking down in a complex Double Three structure labelled (W) down, (X) up, (Y) down structure: Each of those waves has to be composed of three waves of one degree lower. (W) down was composed of W down, X up, Y down. The wave … Read more
Bears have tested the support 18,540 (see the blue line) six or seven times. So far it has held but that support is no longer strong. In the vast majority of cases a bounce of such a support that got tested so many times creates a bulls’ trap setup, a bounce that is followed by … Read more
1,860 has been the target for this move up. It is the confluence of fibs: – 138.2% ext of wave -a- up, and – 176.4% ext of a micro wave i up of -c- up. So far this move up has been following a clearly corrective (w) up, (x) down, (y) up structure: To confirm … Read more
Bad report from AMZN crushed NQ but ES-mini has held over upward sloped 200 MA on 60 min chart (see the pink line): That bullish micro wave count allows bulls to produce one more rally in subwave -c- of wave (Y) up targeting 3,990 – 4,020. However, we have two more bearish wave counts that … Read more
NQ-mini keeps following the bearish wave count: Under that scenario NQ completed an A up, B down, C up structure of wave 4 up and started another A-B-C down structure of wave 5 down targeting 9,800.
Crude keeps following the bullish wave count nicely: In the previous update I pointed you to the bullish -i- up, -ii- down long trading setup. Target 1 = 94.11, target 2 = 97.96. Protective stop is 81.30
MACRO UPDATE OF @YM – E-mini Dow futures Dow futures has been following a complex corrective pattern called Double Three or “3-3-3”: That pattern is composed of three large waves (W) down, (X) up and (Y) down. And each of those waves is composed of three waves labelled W-X-Y. To complete that whole structure bears … Read more
That bullish count shows a possible destination for this corrective A up, B down, C up structure at 4,050: The first strong resistance is 3,940, 176.4% ext of wave A up. This micro wave (iii) may extend to 138.2% ext of wave (i) up = 3,960.
If we look at the chart below you can see a corrective Double Three structure labelled (w)-(x)-(y) up: According to that wave count, to complete the final subwave -c- of wave (y) up we need to get a shallow pullback in a micro wave iv down followed by another push higher in a micro wave … Read more
Under the Bullish Scenario we can get a five wave up rally in wave C up. Any impulsive rally in wave C up starts from a micro (i) up, (ii) down setup: That bullish count lacks a proper foundation, a complete looking (a)-(b)-(c) structure of wave (ii) down. To complete that structure bears need to … Read more
TSLA is approaching the Green Box: We should get a relatively large corrective pullback in wave B up off that Green Box.
DXY, the US Dollar index has super clean bullish micro count that argues that wave 3 up has not topped yet: The flat (a)-(b)-(c) down consolidation (see the red labels) looks completed and argues for the final spike up in subwave (c) of wave(v) of C of 3 up targeting 118.40. Bulls will most likely … Read more
The Weekend Update The previous Weekend Update outlined two scenarios, the Bearish and the Bullish ones. On Friday I updated the bearish scenario and noted that bears had to keep NQ under resistance 11,328 to keep that setup alive. On Friday bulls managed to break over that level and invalidated the bearish scenario. Now we … Read more
The Weekend Update Let’s review two alternative Macro Counts based on Daily charts of ES-mini futures. (1) We will start from the Straightforward Bearish “3-3-5” scenario: We can count the corrective action that started in Jan’22 as a larger simple textbook (A) down, (B) up, (C) down wave count. Any corrective structure is composed of … Read more
We have an attractive short -i- down, -ii- up setup with a tight protective stop over 11,328:
We have two alternative counts in SPX. Both are bearish. Let’s starts from the (i) Optimistic Bearish Scenario: Under the Optimistic scenario, a drop to 3,350 would complete wave (v) of (C) and consequently complete the whole large (A) down, (B) up, (C) down structure that started at the top made in Jan’22. That level … Read more
On Thursday bulls failed again to climb over 3,734. Below I show you the bearish scenario where ES is slowly rolling over and starting a new impulsive five wave down decline targeting 3,350: Under the bearish count, the micro wave -i- down looks completed and we can get another whipsaw looking a-b-c up consolidation in … Read more
Crude looks strong today and vastly outperforms equities. To confirm a bullish reversal crude has to climb over 85.57. Once it goes over 85.57 the first target will be 96.90:
Let’s review the bearish wave count first: Off the low labelled (a) down we got an a-b-c move up labelled (b) up. That BEARISH count will be valid until bulls manage to push ES over the resistance 3,820. We can consider an a-b-c move up a bearish pullback as long as it holds under the … Read more
Let’s start from reviewing the Bearish Path: Under that count the -a- up, -b- down, -c- up whipsaw that has been torturing us in October is subwave ( b ) up of wave ( iii ) down. Under that Very Bearish count NQ has a picture perfect short setup for a strong slide in subwave … Read more
As we expected yesterday, bulls pushed ES overnight and hit our target at 3,745. Let’s first review our Bearish scenario: Under the bearish scenario that move up is a subwave c of a corrective pullback n wave (b) up. Now let’s review the Bullish scenario: Under the both scenarios, that overnight push over the Friday … Read more
In my weekend update I correctly predicted a bullish bounce: Under that bearish wave count I expected to get an a-b-c up corrective structure that was supposed to stop at 3,688. However, instead of an a-b-c up move we got a five wave up move. If we consider the low made by a gap down … Read more
Crude Oil drew a bullish descending wedge over the period from June to September 2022: Crude broke out of that wedge in October 2022. When such a breakout happens normally price comes back down in a corrective looking a-b-c structure to re-test the broken wedge from above. This morning Crude Oil has touched the Green … Read more
Silver seems having started a corrective flat a-b-c up consolidation in subwave (b) up of wave (v) down: That is a typical behavior before the final exhaustive decline in subwave (c) of wave (v) down starts. The final flush down would complete a huge corrective A down, B up, and C down structure and set … Read more
The Weekend Update Let me share two important inputs that we should take into consideration before we start working on Elliott Wave analysis. (1) the Crowd Feels VERY bearish: According to the latest AAII Sentiment Survey: *last week’s bullish sentiment reading ranks among the 60 lowest in the survey’s history, and *there have been fewer … Read more
To confirm completion of the rally, bears need to push ES back under the June low = 3,655.75: In contrast, if bulls manage to push ES over 3,718 (66.7% retracement of the preceding decline) that bearish count would become questionable to say the least. The Bullish alternative count: Bulls have broken out over 3,718, and … Read more
Yesterday I posted that scenario for S&P 500 cash index: I noted that “the Very bearish Daily count allows bulls to produce another dead cat bounce making a lower high at 3,739 – 3,790”. And today we got a violent short squeeze rally: Look at the upper yellow box. You will see that we had … Read more
In my previous updates I expected another push higher in subwave c up. We got that rally but only after a very strong drop this morning caused by bearish CPI data announced at 8-30 AM EST. Now after that rally, the a-b-c up structure of wave -b- up looks completed: That crazy whipsaw is what … Read more
RTY still holds inside the yellow box for a corrective consolidation: I count that rally as subwave c of a corrective wave b up. That count argues for corrective pullback to be followed by another leg down in subwave c of wave -a- down.
In mid September we got a shallow a-b-c up bounce in subwave -b- up followed by another drop (see the upper circle on the chart below): This week we got even smaller a-b-c- up pullback in another subwave -b- up and this drop is a starting new leg down in subwave -c- down. The main … Read more
A tight consolidation in ES-mini was followed by a strong drop caused by CPI release at 8-30 AM EST on Thursday. ES-mini found support at 76.4% ext of the first leg down, a decline off the top made in Jan’22 into the bottom made in May’22. That break under support opened the door for a … Read more
Quite often ES-mini (futures that are traded overnight) and the original S&P 500 index (calculated only during regular trading hours) have slightly different wave count. This is why I count waves on two instruments independently. This is how the primary bearish count on SPX looks like: The Very bearish Daily count allows bulls to produce … Read more
RTY has a clean bearish wave count: Bears can drive RTY down 1,652 – 1,600 in subwave c of wave -a- down. This is where it can be on the repeating corrective pattern / fractal:
No change in the bearish Harmonic Elliott wave count of silver. During July – October 2022 silver produced a flat consolidation in a corrective wave (iv) up and now looks starting another leg down in wave ( v ) down. Normally wave (v) down has a clean (a) down, (b) up, (c) down subdivision and … Read more
In the evening update I noted that ES may bounce before breaking down under 3,571. This morning we got a clean path for that bounce: PLAN A: Bulls have a clean bullish -i- up, -ii- down setup that allows them to push ES up to 3,680. The stop for that long setup can be placed … Read more
We still have two main scenarios on the table. I still favor the bearish scenario arguing for a breakdown under the support at 3,571: Let me zoom-in and highlight specific moves so you will see why I think that the whipsaw action this week looks totally identical to the pullback on September 16 – 20, … Read more