The five wave down structure off the high made last Friday looks having completed: As long as bulls hold NQ over 10,890.75, the late September low they have a setup for an a-b-c up corrective bounce targeting 11,120 – 11,220. Upon completion of that a-b-c up corrective bounce in subwave -b- up we can get … Read more
Let’s first start from reviewing the Bullish low probability scenario. As long as bulls hold ES over 3,571: (i) the bullish count that argues for at least one more push higher will be alive; and (ii) bears will not be able to accelerate the decline. A break under 3,571 would trigger a panic selling by … Read more
I expect RTY-mini futures to break under Sep’22 lows in an a-b-c down structure (with a shallow pullback in subwave b up): I think RTY may spend Monday to consolidate in that corrective subwave b up and start another move down in subwave c overnight or tomorrow morning. If we get a flat shallow consolidation … Read more
This is how the primary bearish scenario looks like: We may be dealing with a corrective pullback digesting sharp decline on Friday. Price is 250 points under the Extreme Secondary support for Monday. Price dropped too low and too far. A Daily support for Tuesday is 11,043.25. I would consider that level to be the … Read more
The Weekend Update Let’s start from a primary MACRO Bearish Scenario for NQ-mini: Under the Macro Bearish count in NQ, that decline off the mid August high is an unfolding five wave down structure. We can see a good example of a five wave down structure recently replayed by ES in the yellow box. Specifically, … Read more
The Weekend Macro Update. Every weekend I outline most probable macro scenarios, potential paths for upcoming months. In this update I will be talking about two of the three scenarios I explained in my previous macro update posted last weekend. Many members of me premium chatroom keep asking me whether the bullish count we called … Read more
ES-mini dropped under support 3,695 and by doing that invalidated teh bullish count for one more push higher and confirmed start of a new leg down to lower lows: This is how that count looks on a Daily chart of ES-mini:
Crude Oil broke out of a bullish ascending wedge: I expect a corrective -a-b-c- down pullback in wave -ii- down to re-test the broken wedge from above. That would be an attractive long setup to ride the next leg up.
This morning Non-farm payroll data release caused spike down in futures. ES-mini dropped deeper into the Green Box: ES has approached a strong support located at 3,696, a confluence of 50% retracement and 176.4% extension of subwave -a- down. If bears manage to break under 3,696 and bulls fail to quickly reclaim it that would … Read more
This is the ES-mini 120 min chart with expected path I posted in my evening update yesterday: The expectation was to get a decline targeting the Green Target box. This is how that chart looks now: Let’s come back to the “3-3-3” model of a corrective pullback we have been following as our primary scenario: … Read more
I consider that move up a corrective bounce in wave X up: You can compare two charts above and see how closely RTY has been following the corrective fractal. Let’s zoom in to see details of the decline off the high made in August: So far RTY-mini has retraced 30% of the decline off the … Read more
As we predicted on Wednesday evening, ES-mini turned down and declined overnight. On Thursday morning bulls tried to start a new rally but failed. Another leg down almost tagged the Green Target box: To trigger a new leg up bulls need to push ES over 3,805. Read the Macro Update here. That rally would set … Read more
My primary scenario is that ES is in a corrective wave X up: The first argument i favor of that scenario is that the preceding decline had a clean Double Three structure (in a yellow box): Another reason why I focus on that macro “3-3-3” structure is that this rally lacks an impulsive structure. That … Read more
Yesterday I posted a macro chart that argued that gold miners ETF GDX made a lasting bottom: In the macro update I conclude that we may be watching start of a new strong rally in a wave ( 3 ) up. On that micro 60 min chart (above) you can see a strong move up … Read more
To keep alive the bearish setup under the completed Expanding Triangle scenario bears had to keep ES at all times under 3,786 (a support turned resistance). They failed to defend that level and bulls managed to make a higher high. That move up invalidated the Expanding Triangle scenario that argued for immediate breakdown to new … Read more
Crude Oil still holds inside the bullish looking descending wedge: That move up into the upper egde of that wedge can be counted as a micro wave -i- up, to be followed by a corrective a-b-c pullback in a wave -ii- down. If bulls manage top push Crude out of the wedge and then we … Read more
On Tuesday, 4 October 2022, Bitcoin managed to make a higher high and by doing that it met minimum requirement for subwave c up of wave (y) of (ii) up. That corrective structure is shaped as the Double Three structure. Note that the rally stopped right at 50% retracement of the preceding decline labelled wave … Read more
NQ completed a corrective Expanding Triangle on Tuesday: The “Expanding Triangle” pattern is widely known as “Megaphone” or Broadening Formation/Consolidation. It is composed of five subwaves a-b-c-d-e where every new move is larger than the preceding one. The pattern gets concluded with the largest move up, a strong short covering rally that creates a bulls … Read more
We can count a huge (A) up, (B) down, (C) up move off the lows of 2016 as a completed wave (1) up: Wave ( 1 ) up topped in August 2020. Off that top GDX declined in a large corrective (A) down, (B) up, (C) down structure of wave ( 2 ) down: That … Read more
This morning I shared a wave count that considered the rally in ES-mini as the final subwave e of a corrective pattern called the “Expanding Triangle” or a “Megaphone”. This afternoon ES has hit the Red Target box and stalled: For swing traders bears need to wait until ES drops back under 3,751 to trigger … Read more
In the previous macro update we noted that Bitcoin needed to drop lower to complete a macro corrective structure. On a micro level that drop was supposed to start upon completion of a corrective wave ( ii ) up structured as (w)-(x)-(y): Ideally it should spike over the top of wave (w) up (20,383) to … Read more
This rally looks like a textbook subwave (c) in a corrective (a)-(b)-(c) up structure.Sometimes wave (c) up has a clean five wave up subdivision. Sometimes, like in this case, it comes as a spiky move with indiscernible micro structure.So far it has hit the target 1 at 138.2% extension of subwave (a) up = 1,774.75We … Read more
When price goes up in a straight-line without pullbacks that is a sign it is driven by forced liquidations of short positions. That is a sign that we may be dealing with a corrective bounce: Only recently we had three similar dead cat bounces that did not have follow through and followed by another move … Read more
We can count decline off the top made in Nov’21 as a huge (W)-(X)-(Y) Double Three structure: The first leg down in wave (W) was structured as W-X-Y: The Wave (W) down bottomed in mid May 2022. The wave (X) up has A up, B down, C up Expanded Flat structure: Note that subwave B … Read more
Last week GLD dropped into the Green Target box and then turned up strongly: Looking at 30 min chart we can see that bears could have pushed lower one more time but bulls manage to push GLD over the critical resistance and by doing that they confirmed completion of a corrective structure. It is possible … Read more
Despite a great looking long trading setup NG dropped to a lower low today. However, its too rearly to discard the long setup because that low is still a way over the previous low made by wave ( 4 ) down at 5.465 in July 2022: If we zoom-in to a 30 min chart we … Read more
As we noted several times in September, bulls have a gorgeous long setup in crude oil: Bulls are ready to break out of that tight bullish looking wedge. That setup allows bulls to start an explosive rally in subwave (C) of wave ( 3 ) up targeting 145/ barrel.
I traditionally update macro scenarios on weekends. The main assumption of all three macro scenarios I will review before is that ES-mini made a lasting top in Jan’22 because it completed a five wave up rally that started in 2009. Watch this video where I explain why: https://youtu.be/8zvNKipEpVM Let’s start from a weekly chart showing … Read more
We can count three large waves behind the rally off the low made in December 2019: That (A)-(B)-(C) move up that topped in November 2021 can be counted as a large wave ( 1 ) up. Let’s zoom in to a daily chart to inspect a micro structure of the decline off the top made … Read more
DXY (USD index) hit my target for wave 3 of (C) of (3), the strongest part of any five wave up rally. After this top we normally get a quick drop in a micro wave 4 down to be followed by another A-B-C up push in wave 5 up. That quick drop (remember that is … Read more
Every wave -c- even in a corrective a-b-c structure follows a five wav structure. Therefore, a five wave up rally has to start from a micro i up, ii down setup. We have such a setup in ES mini this morning:
Under the micro bullish path the drop on Thursday, September 29th was a corrective wave b down to be followed by a rally in wave c up: However, I can see an equally probable “one more push lower” count: I slightly prefer the second bearish count over the first bullish count. But even if ES … Read more
December 2022 contract sits at the Green Target box, a support that should stop this decline. It has a very attractive macro long setup to ride a five wave up rally in subwave (C) of wave ( 5 ) up that may stretch over 12.
On the 240 min chart of RTY-mini below you can see that it approached the Green Target box. Overnight RTY tagged the June’22 low and bounced. The ideal scenario is one more trip lower to into the Green Target box today. But because RTY managed to make a lower low overnight that move down could … Read more
ES-mini made a new low of the 2022 year and it starts looking very oversold. Let’s discuss two main macro scenarios that argue for an upcoming bullish bounce. The first scenario is the Santa’s rally. The Very Bullish scenario counts the decline off the mid Aug top as a subwave B down of wave (B) … Read more
This morning we got another a-b-c up pullback that can be counted as a micro wave iv up to be followed by another push lower in wave v down targeting the Green Target box. That push down would complete the Double Three corrective move down and set the stage for strong move up.
I expect bears to violate the June 2022 low made at 3,655.75 and hit the Green Target box If then bulls manage to push ES back over 3,655.75 they would trigger a macro “failed breakdown” long setup A pessimistic bullish scenario is that we would then get a corrective a-b-c up bounce that will hit … Read more
Let’s start from a very bearish “consensus” scenario: Under that count RTY follows the most common simple (A) down, (B) up, (C) down structure: Under that count price has only started a new five wave down structure of wave (C) down: Bears try to count the decline off the mid August 2022 as an impulsive … Read more
25 September 2022 DXY (USD index) hit a textbook target for a micro wave 3 of (C) of (3) up at 100% extension of subwave (A) of wave (3) up. I would expect to get a pullback in a micro wave 4 down to be followed by another push higher in a micro wave 5 … Read more
I consider S&P 500 made a major top in January 2022. Specifically, it completed a huge five wave up fractal (repeating pattern) that started in March 2009. You can watch a short video explaining that topping wave count: The Wave Principle argues that upon completion of a five wave up rally we should expect a … Read more