ES-mini:
The Primary Bearish Scenario
Argues for a Breakdown

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Let’s first start from reviewing the Bullish low probability scenario.

As long as bulls hold ES over 3,571:

(i) the bullish count that argues for at least one more push higher will be alive; and

(ii) bears will not be able to accelerate the decline.

ES-mini, 120 min chart, “Bullish” scenario

A break under 3,571 would trigger a panic selling by retail and confirm the Bearish scenario shown below:

ES-mini, 120 min chart, the “Bearish” scenario

ES played a similar pattern in mid Sep 2022 (see the red annotation).

Back then after a sharp drop it consolidated in a narrow range and then dropped to a lower low completing that leg down (labelled as -a- down).

Under the Primary Bearish count bears will be able to push ES under 3,571, complete subwave -a- up that would be followed by an immediate spike back over 3,571 in a corrective subwave -b up that would create a bull trap and set the stage for a strong decline in subwave -c- down (targeting 3,300).

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