My primary scenario is that ES is in a corrective wave X up:
The first argument i favor of that scenario is that the preceding decline had a clean Double Three structure (in a yellow box):
Another reason why I focus on that macro “3-3-3” structure is that this rally lacks an impulsive structure.
That rally looks very similar to wave labelled (x) up (in a yellow box on the chart shown below) and is equal in size to that that bounce that eventually got followed by another a-b-c move down:
Those rallies in yellow boxes are of equal size.
Ideally, that straight line rally has to be followed by a clean a-b-c down structure.
The move down we got on Wednesday could be counted as subwave a down. Then this push higher is a subwave b up.
Under that structure we need one more push lower in a subwave c down.
A drop into the Green Box would create an attractive long trading setup to ride wave c up targeting the Red Target box