$ES-mini: The Bullish Count Lacks A Foundation for a Rally

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Under the Bullish Scenario we can get a five wave up rally in wave C up. Any impulsive rally in wave C up starts from a micro (i) up, (ii) down setup:

ES-mini 60 min chart

That bullish count lacks a proper foundation, a complete looking (a)-(b)-(c) structure of wave (ii) down. To complete that structure bears need to push down and hit the Green Target box. That decline would be a bear trap and set the stage for the rally.

2. Bearish “3-3-5” Macro Scenario.

We can count the October consolidation as a complete corrective wave 4 up:

ES-mini, Daily chart

Off the low made by ES-mini at 3,571.75 on Oct 3rd, 2022 we can count a clean A up, B down, C up corrective structure of wave 4 up.

That is a textbook view of a corrective wave 4 up that should be followed by an A down, B up, C down structure of the final wave 5 down.

In conclusion:

both wave counts argue for another push lower; and

to confirm the bullish count bulls have to stop that decline at 3,715 – 3,685, but

if bears manage to push ES-mini under 3,640 that would confirm that ES follows the bearish count that argues for a big move down in wave 5 down targeting 3,350.

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