$ES-mini:
Will We Get Another Bounce
Before the Breakdown?

<<< Back to All Updates
<<< Macro Updates

We still have two main scenarios on the table. I still favor the bearish scenario arguing for a breakdown under the support at 3,571:

ES-mini 120 min chart

Let me zoom-in and highlight specific moves so you will see why I think that the whipsaw action this week looks totally identical to the pullback on September 16 – 20, 2022:

ES-mini 120 min chart

Note that the blue corrective a up, b down, c up structure was followed by a strong impulsive decline (red line). That red drop in mid September in subwave -a- down was followed by a small black shallow corrective zig-zag in subwave -b- up:

ES-mini, 120 min chart

And if ES-mini keeps following the same path we can get something like that:

ES-mini, 120 min chart

Now let’s have a look at lower probability bullish scenario:

ES-mini, 120 min chart

Because bulls have been holding ES-mini over the critical support 3,571 the bullish setup is still alive.

I keep referring you to a similar pattern played out by GDX in 2021:

GDX, Daily chart

Bears need to break under 3,571 to make that bullish setup much less probable.

In conclusion:

I consider the bearish path my preferred scenario, and

we may get a bounce up to 3,655 – 3,665 in subwave c of wave -b- up powered by release of PPI Index scheduled at 8-30 AM EST on Wednesday. And only then we may finally get a break under the support 3,571.

Subscribe to Free Updates

Get Unlimited Access

More To Explore

$ES: Two Path Leading to 6,000

$ES #ES-mini #Elliott Wave I have been tracking two scenarios and both allow bulls to push ES-mini to 6,000. Let’s

CastAwayTrader September 13, 2024

Important Disclaimer

CastAway Trader LLC, the publisher of this web-site and videos is not registered as an investment adviser nor a broker/dealer with either the U. S. Securities & Exchange Commission or any state securities regulatory authority. Users of the website www.castawaytrader.com and viewers of the videos are advised that all information presented on the website is solely for informational purposes, is not intended to be used as a personalized investment recommendation, and is not attuned to any specific portfolio or to any user’s particular investment needs or objectives.

Trading stocks, options, or futures carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Before deciding to trade, you should carefully consider your objectives, financial situation, needs and level of experience. CastAway Trader LLC provides general overview of trading methods that does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. The content of this website must not be construed as personal advice. All trading setups and/or trades presented in the web site and/or trading chat room by CastAway Trader an/or by other members of the chat should be considered hypothetical for educational purposes only and should not be expected to be replicated in a live trading account.

An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment. You should not speculate with capital that you cannot afford to lose. Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading. Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing ones’ financial security or life style.

You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading. You should seek advice from an independent financial advisor.

Any information posted on this web site is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, nor is it to be construed as a recommendation to buy, hold or sell (short or otherwise) any security. All users of the website must determine for themselves what specific investments to make or not make and are urged to consult with their own independent financial advisors with respect to any investment decision. The reader bears responsibility for his/her own investment research and decisions, should seek the advice of a qualified securities professional before making any investment, and investigate and fully understand any and all risks before investing. All opinions, analyses and information posted on the website are based on sources believed to be reliable and written in good faith, but should be independently verified, and no representation or warranty of any kind, express or implied, is made, including but not limited to any representation or warranty concerning accuracy, completeness, correctness, timeliness or appropriateness. In addition, CastAwayTrader LLC and its officers and employees undertake no responsibility to notify such opinions, analyses or information or to keep such opinions, analyses or information current. Also be aware that the owners, officers and employees of the web site www.castawaytrader.com may have long or short positions in securities that may be discussed on the website, Premium Trading Chat room and/or in the videos posted by CastAway Trader LLC.

Past results are not indicative of future profits.

Subscribe to Free Updates

Get Unlimited Access