ES-mini: Macro Update Before FOMC on Wednesday

I have two bearish macro scenarios on my table.

(1) The Bearish Scenario 1 considers the October rally as a corrective bounce in subwave C of wave 4 up:

That rally is shaped as an ascending bearish wedge. It should be followed by a strong impulsive decline in subwave A of wave 5 down targeting the low made by wave 3 down.

For that bearish scenario 1 the key resistance is 3,951.

(2) An alternative Bearish Scenario 2 allows bulls to push ES-mini over 4,000 before they start another big leg down:

Under that count, this rally would still be followed by a strong impulsive decline in wave (C) down albeit from a higher level (see the Red Target box).

Again, tomorrow is FOMC that is normally accompanied by crazy spikes.

We may get a spike tagging 4,040, the upper red target box followed by a strong rejection and bearish reversal back under 3,900.

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