NQ: MACRO UPDATE: We still have to consider two very different paths.

  • CastAwayTrader
  • October 18, 2022
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Let’s start from reviewing the Bearish Path:

NQ-mini, Daily chart

Under that count the -a- up, -b- down, -c- up whipsaw that has been torturing us in October is subwave ( b ) up of wave ( iii ) down.

NQ-mini chart, Daily

Under that Very Bearish count NQ has a picture perfect short setup for a strong slide in subwave (c) of wave ( iii ) down targeting 9,300 – 9,000.

Let’s review a slight alternative bearish count based on the repeating “3-3-3” structure:

NQ-mini, 240 min chart

This is a slight variation of the bearish count. The Very Bearish count considers decline off the mid Aug high as an impulsive five wave down move. The bearish 3-3-3 count considers the decline off the mid Aug high as a combination of several a-b-c down structures.

That count also argues for a strong drop in NQ-mini.

Let’s now discuss a count that we can call the Bullish one. It argues for a bear market rally:

NQ-mini Daily chart

Under the alt Bullish NQ has already made a lasting bottom at 10,484.75 on Oct 13th. Off that October low we should get an impulsive five wave up rally with very shallow pullbacks (recently all bears market rally had a specific structure with super shallow waves ii and iv down):

NQ-mini, 30 min chart

The main requirement for the bullish count (bear market rally) is a staring -i- up, -ii- down setup that has not been completed yet.

In conclusion:

Under that bullish count NQ has to make a new higher high of the week tomorrow but end the week on a bearish note in wave -ii- down.

Under the bearish count bears need to start pushing NQ down. New higher highs would make those two bearish counts look questionable.

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