We Continue Tracking Two Very Different Scenarios for ES-mini here

Let’s review the bearish wave count first:

Off the low labelled (a) down we got an a-b-c move up labelled (b) up.

That BEARISH count will be valid until bulls manage to push ES over the resistance 3,820. We can consider an a-b-c move up a bearish pullback as long as it holds under the high made by the previous corrective wave labelled (iv) up.

Now let’s review the bullish scenario:

The bullish count is based on an assumption that the August rally was not all of corrective wave (B) up but only subwave A up of (B) up, then the drop off the top made in August to the October low was subwave B down of wave (B) up, and to complete the A up, B down, C up pullback ES needs to produce a bear market rally in subwave C up that may tag 4,150 – 4,200.

But, every bear market rally starts from a -i- up, -ii- down long setup.

Read my blog: Secret Path for a Bear Market Rally

In conclusion:

To confirm the bullish path, bulls need to stop the next pullback at or in the Green Target box (ideally at 3,685, or at 3,635 in the worst case).

Under the bearish count ES has to start a five wave down decline targeting 3,350.

Subscribe to Free Updates

Get Unlimited Access

More To Explore

$ES: Potential for the Final Capitulation Drop on Friday

$ES #ES-mini #trading setup The base case is that bulls produce a bigger bounce to the intersection of two trend lines: But a repeating pattern is that a bearish month often ends making the lower

CastAwayTrader September 27, 2023

$NQ: MACRO UPDATE: Both Scenarios Allow Bulls to Push Higher

$NQ #NQ #trading setup #Elliott Wave Today NQ tested a strong support at 14,628. That was the June 2023 low. At 1-29 PM EST I warned subscribers of my trading chat room: “NQ has finally

CastAwayTrader September 27, 2023

Important Disclaimer

CastAway Trader LLC, the publisher of this web-site and videos is not registered as an investment adviser nor a broker/dealer with either the U. S. Securities & Exchange Commission or any state securities regulatory authority. Users of the website www.castawaytrader.com and viewers of the videos are advised that all information presented on the website is solely for informational purposes, is not intended to be used as a personalized investment recommendation, and is not attuned to any specific portfolio or to any user’s particular investment needs or objectives.

Trading stocks, options, or futures carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Before deciding to trade, you should carefully consider your objectives, financial situation, needs and level of experience. CastAway Trader LLC provides general overview of trading methods that does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. The content of this website must not be construed as personal advice. All trading setups and/or trades presented in the web site and/or trading chat room by CastAway Trader an/or by other members of the chat should be considered hypothetical for educational purposes only and should not be expected to be replicated in a live trading account.

An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment. You should not speculate with capital that you cannot afford to lose. Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading. Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing ones’ financial security or life style.

You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading. You should seek advice from an independent financial advisor.

Any information posted on this web site is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, nor is it to be construed as a recommendation to buy, hold or sell (short or otherwise) any security. All users of the website must determine for themselves what specific investments to make or not make and are urged to consult with their own independent financial advisors with respect to any investment decision. The reader bears responsibility for his/her own investment research and decisions, should seek the advice of a qualified securities professional before making any investment, and investigate and fully understand any and all risks before investing. All opinions, analyses and information posted on the website are based on sources believed to be reliable and written in good faith, but should be independently verified, and no representation or warranty of any kind, express or implied, is made, including but not limited to any representation or warranty concerning accuracy, completeness, correctness, timeliness or appropriateness. In addition, CastAwayTrader LLC and its officers and employees undertake no responsibility to notify such opinions, analyses or information or to keep such opinions, analyses or information current. Also be aware that the owners, officers and employees of the web site www.castawaytrader.com may have long or short positions in securities that may be discussed on the website, Premium Trading Chat room and/or in the videos posted by CastAway Trader LLC.

Past results are not indicative of future profits.