We Continue Tracking Two Very Different Scenarios for ES-mini here

Let’s review the bearish wave count first:

Off the low labelled (a) down we got an a-b-c move up labelled (b) up.

That BEARISH count will be valid until bulls manage to push ES over the resistance 3,820. We can consider an a-b-c move up a bearish pullback as long as it holds under the high made by the previous corrective wave labelled (iv) up.

Now let’s review the bullish scenario:

The bullish count is based on an assumption that the August rally was not all of corrective wave (B) up but only subwave A up of (B) up, then the drop off the top made in August to the October low was subwave B down of wave (B) up, and to complete the A up, B down, C up pullback ES needs to produce a bear market rally in subwave C up that may tag 4,150 – 4,200.

But, every bear market rally starts from a -i- up, -ii- down long setup.

Read my blog: Secret Path for a Bear Market Rally

In conclusion:

To confirm the bullish path, bulls need to stop the next pullback at or in the Green Target box (ideally at 3,685, or at 3,635 in the worst case).

Under the bearish count ES has to start a five wave down decline targeting 3,350.

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