Off the all time high made in Niov’21, Russell has been leaking down in a complex Double Three structure labelled (W) down, (X) up, (Y) down structure:
Each of those waves has to be composed of three waves of one degree lower. (W) down was composed of W down, X up, Y down.
The wave (X) up was also composed of A up, B down, C up.
The final leg of that corrective structure in a large wave (Y) down should be composed of A/W down (bottomed on Sep 28th), B or X up (could top on Friday or may make a slightly higher high on Monday) and, should be completed with another pus to a lower low in subwave C of Y targeting the Green Target box.
This year every large pullback retraced 50% of the preceding three wave decline:
On Friday RTY slightly overshot that resistance (1,844).
Let’s zoom-in to 240 min chart:
1,860 has been our target for this move up. RTY hit the target after hours on Friday (see the price hitting the Red Target box).
In contrast to ES and NQ, RTY has a super clean corrective structure of the (w) up, (x) down, (y) up behind the pullback that started on Sep 28th.
Note that a corrective wave (x) down managed to make a lower low (1643.80 on 10/13 vs 1647.50 on 9/28).
That lower low is a ticking bomb. When a corrective wave manages to make a lower low that tells us we would get another impulsive move down making a new lower low. A corrective wave can NOT make a major bottom or a top, only a temporary one.
Friday October 28th was 45 calendar days apart from an important top made on Sep 13th. 45 Days was considered by Gann as 1/8 of a full cycle. Quite often peaks and troughs stand 45 days apart from each other. Off the top made on Sep 13 th 45 day projections points to a possible peak on Oct 28th:
If we add 45 days to the recent double bottom made at the end of September – beginning of October we will get a time window for the next important low on Nov 12-16th:
To confirm a bearish reversal bears nee to push RT back under 1,794.80.
The target for the next down would be the recent low made around 1,650.