THE WEEKEND MACRO REPORT
Off the Top made in Nov’21 RTY has been following a large corrective structure called “3-3-3” or the Double Three:
First look at the first three wave down move labelled (W) down (bottomed in May 2022).
Then look at a tricky three wave up bounce labelled as wave (X) up (topped in Aug 2022):
It is tricky because it was shaped as an Expanding Triangle structure where a corrective subwave B down made a lower low but the final leg up in subwave C up made a higher high. Such a structure kills both, bulls who have to close longs when subwave B down makes a lower low but then it kills bears when the final subwave C up manages to make a higher high.
Because by early August we got three waves down, followed by a three wave up pullback we could expect either a five wave down move (under a “3-3-5” corrective structure) or a three wave down move under a complex (“3-3-3” structure).
Off the Aug top made by a wave (X) up we shoudl expect a three wave decline in wave (Y) down.
We got a subwave A down that bottomed on Sep 28th.
Then we got that current rally that has been shaped as a Triple Three corrective structure that most likely topped last week.
Now we need to get the final decline in subwave C of wave (Y) down targeting a new lower low.
Note that this decline may be structured as a complex double three (w) down, (x) up, (y) down structure in a similar way to the decline off the August top into the late Sep low.
Note that mid November top is 45 days off the Sep low and 90 days off the August top!
Those are typical cycles described by G.D.Gann.
That is also 275 days (3/4 of the annual cycle) off the Feb top!
And it is very close to a full yearly cycle off the Nov’21 all time high.
If we zoom-in we will see a clean completed Triple Three corrective structure behind the rally off the late September low.
We can also see that the high made on Nov teh 1st has a critical importance.
Last week RTY broke out ofver that high but bulls failed to hold sover that level and closed the week under that level triggereing a bearish “failed breakoiut” setup.
As long as bears hold RTY UNDER that level 1,876.40 they will remain in control and will have a short setup to drive RTY down to 1,755.