FOMC, CPI and NFP days normally bring crazy volatility. Sometimes unexpected data triggers very strong directional moves.
Today was not something unusual in terms of strength and size of a move.
We got a very similar strong rally in August and it was driven by Consumer Price Index data as well.
Yesterday I shared a bullish scenario with members of my trading chat room:
That rally was possible but I considered more reasonable to expect a bearish outcome with a move under 3,700…
That strong rally invalidated several macro scenarios.
Now I have two macro scenarios.
(1) My Primary Scenario:
The rally triggered by CPI data looked like a textbook short squeeze. This is how subwave c in a corrective wave -b- up normally looks and feels like.
Under that count I would expect a pullback down to 3,805:
A drop to 3,805 would complete an -a- down, -b- up, -c- down structure of wave (b) up (shaped as a Running Flat structure) and set the stage for another rally in wave ( c ) up targeting 4,120 – 4,220.
(2) Very Bullish Macro.
This is what bulls may dream about:
Under that bullish count, this rally should keep pushing higher non-stop to 4,240. That scenario does not looks very probable at this moment.