NQ: Break Under 11,710 Should Trigger A Strong Decline

#NQ #Daily #Macro #Micro #trading setup

My main assumption behind that bearish wave count is that (a)-(b)-(c) up pullback off the October 2022 low has topped:

Any countertrend (a)-(b)-(c), a three wave pullback, making a lower high is a setup for bears to drive price to a new lower low.

The blue line is 20 SMA. That line is the main borderline between bull and bear markets. NQ dropped under 20 SMA and came back up to re-test it from below. If bulls fail to reclaim that resistance, that failure would immediately attract fresh new sellers.

On a 120 min chart we can clearly see a completed (a) up, (b) down, (c) up structure behind the bounce off the Oct 22 lows:

The key support for bears to crack is 11,710. Break under that level can be considered a trigger to go short.

I expect to get a five wave down structure off the top made by NQ at 12,258 on Dec 1st.

So far we have got micro waves -i- down, -ii- up, subwave -a- of wave -iii- down off that last high. And I count this move up as a subwave -b- up of wave -iii- down:

Here NQ is testing a meaningful 41.4% retracement fib (applied to the preceding five wave down structure of subwave -a- of wave -iii- down).

Again, the key support for bears to crack is 11,710.

Break under that level can be considered a trigger to go short.

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