#macro #daily #3-3-3 structure #bear market rally #trading setup
This is the right time to zoom-out and look at the big picture.
I count the move up off the October low as a corrective (a)-(b)-(c) up bounce:
Note that this move up is shaped as a bearish ascending wedge. That is good for bears because that attracts attention of millions of traders who look for simple patterns like a wedge.
On the chart above I showed you a bearish view on this market. Bears argue that we have got full five wave up structure of subwave (c) up of wave B up / Y up.
But bulls argue that this decline is subwave -c- of wave -iv- down and therefore bulls have room for one more push higher into the apex of that wedge:
The immediate support is 20 SMA Daily = 3,925.
Unfortunately at at this point in time both scenarios look equally probable.
From a standpoint of a traditional technical analysis that wedge does not look completed. It really needs one more push higher into its apex.
Note those vertical lines. They caught a stable underlying cycle that nailed the March top, June bottom and Sep top.
That cycle peaks on Dec 6th, 2022