ES/SPX – Bears May Get a Short Setup for a 300 Point Drop

  • CastAwayTrader
  • December 19, 2022
<<< Back to All Updates
<<< Macro Updates

$ES $SPX #DAILY #micro #i down – ii up setup

Last week I noted that SPX was approaching a fat unfilled gap up left by a runaway October rally. On Friday we hit that gap up and started to consolidate:

SPX 15 min chart

Let’s zoom out and look at a daily chart of ES-mini:

ES-mini Daily chart

Last week ES-mini dropped under a bearish ascending wedge, a corrective consolidation in between of two converging blue trendlines.

Bears pushed the price under the lower edge of the wedge confirming completion of the October – November corrective bounce. Then bulls attempted to turn price up, they produced a spike to a higher high but then failed to hold to new highs and price dropped back under the lower edge of the wedge and then to a new lower low. I count the drop off the highs made last week as a micro wave -i- of a new five wave down move to a new lower low under the low made in October 2022.

When this consolidation in a micro wave -ii- up gets completed, we should get a strong drop in a micro wave -iii- down with the first target at 3,600.

ES-mini 60 min chart

Ideally I would like to get a bigger pullback/consolidation to top at the Red Supply zone that starts at 3,940sh. A failed attempt to reclaim 3,945 would be an attractive short setup for a drop down to 3,600.

Subscribe to Free Updates

Get Unlimited Access

PrevPreviousQQQ: A 1-2 day Bounce Would Be a Short Setup
NextES: Started a Corrective ConsolidationNext

More To Explore

$NQ: Approached the Major Crossroads

$NQ #Conflicting Scenarios #Elliott Wave The Nasdaq (NQ) is tracing a structure that closely resembles that of the ES-mini (discussed

CastAwayTrader May 19, 2025

$ES: Bears Will Get Active Again

$ES #ES-mini #Elliott Wave #trading setup It’s always easy to recognize a completed five-wave rally after the fact.But in real

CastAwayTrader May 18, 2025

Important Disclaimer

CastAway Trader LLC, the publisher of this web-site and videos is not registered as an investment adviser nor a broker/dealer with either the U. S. Securities & Exchange Commission or any state securities regulatory authority. Users of the website www.castawaytrader.com and viewers of the videos are advised that all information presented on the website is solely for informational purposes, is not intended to be used as a personalized investment recommendation, and is not attuned to any specific portfolio or to any user’s particular investment needs or objectives.

Trading stocks, options, or futures carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Before deciding to trade, you should carefully consider your objectives, financial situation, needs and level of experience. CastAway Trader LLC provides general overview of trading methods that does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. The content of this website must not be construed as personal advice. All trading setups and/or trades presented in the web site and/or trading chat room by CastAway Trader an/or by other members of the chat should be considered hypothetical for educational purposes only and should not be expected to be replicated in a live trading account.

An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment. You should not speculate with capital that you cannot afford to lose. Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading. Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing ones’ financial security or life style.

You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading. You should seek advice from an independent financial advisor.

Any information posted on this web site is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, nor is it to be construed as a recommendation to buy, hold or sell (short or otherwise) any security. All users of the website must determine for themselves what specific investments to make or not make and are urged to consult with their own independent financial advisors with respect to any investment decision. The reader bears responsibility for his/her own investment research and decisions, should seek the advice of a qualified securities professional before making any investment, and investigate and fully understand any and all risks before investing. All opinions, analyses and information posted on the website are based on sources believed to be reliable and written in good faith, but should be independently verified, and no representation or warranty of any kind, express or implied, is made, including but not limited to any representation or warranty concerning accuracy, completeness, correctness, timeliness or appropriateness. In addition, CastAwayTrader LLC and its officers and employees undertake no responsibility to notify such opinions, analyses or information or to keep such opinions, analyses or information current. Also be aware that the owners, officers and employees of the web site www.castawaytrader.com may have long or short positions in securities that may be discussed on the website, Premium Trading Chat room and/or in the videos posted by CastAway Trader LLC.

Past results are not indicative of future profits.

Subscribe to Free Updates

Get Unlimited Access