$ES #es-mini trading #trading setup Morning Update This is potential path for today and tomorrow: Yesterday ES could finally top in a corrective -a-b-c-up structure. Above This you can see a potential path for today and tomorrow. Yesterday afternoon we got a strong a-b-c move down that can be counted as a micro wave i … Read more
$ES #ES-mini futures #trading setup The macro count remains unchanged. Yesterday and today bulls pushed ES deep into the Red Box. Today we got a strong rejection. Bears pushed ES down out of the red box. Note that the rally has been shaped as a bearish wedge. A break under its lower edge would result … Read more
$ES #ES-mini futures #trading setup Today bulls got excited by anemic behavior of bears and push ES deep into the Red Target box: Note that this rally stopped right at 50% retracement of the preceding decline off the high made in Feb’23. We can count the move up as a completed corrective -a-b-c- up structure: … Read more
$ES #ES-mini futures #trading setup The macro picture has not changed. ES-mini keeps working on a corrective bounce: As you can see, any push higher would enter a risk zone, the Red Target box. That final push higher would most likely complete the bounce and will be followed by a strong impulsive move down. The … Read more
$ES #ES-mini futures #trading setup On Mar 13th I shared expectations for a strong short covering rally: I pointed to similarity to a strong short covering rally we got in Sep’22. That rally is highlighted with the Green circle. This is how that Daily chart looks like now: We have got a corrective bounce shaped … Read more
$ES #ES mini futures #tradig setup #short covering rally #short squeeze On March 13th I issued a report called “ES: Time Comes For A Vicious Short Covering Rally”. This is an expected bullish path I shared back then: Below is the updated daily chart o ES-mini: I believe this move up is a corrective bounce … Read more
$ES #ES mini futures We can count that messy consolidation as a symmetrical triangle: A symmetrical triangle is a consolidation pattern composed of five moves (subwaves) bouncing in between of two contracting trendlines. Upon completion price should continue moving down to new lower lows Price normally enters and leaves a triangle in one direction. Every … Read more
$ES #ES mini futures #trading setup On March 13 we correctly predicted a corrective bounce. On March 14 we correctly predicted a move down to re-test the green Demand zone. This morning we noted that ES dropped down to the green demand zone in a corrective manner and predicted a corrective bounce. This is how … Read more
$ES #trading-setup Yesterday I shared this scenario: This how it played out: Bears produced an a-b-c down corrective looking structure off the overnight high. That is a long setup for bulls to produce another leg up in a subwave -c- up. If we get that move up that would be a very attractive short setup … Read more
$ES #ES mini futures #trading setup In the previous update I shared my expectation for a strong corrective bounce. This is how a macro wave count looks like after the first day of a corrective action: Cycle analysis suggests that this large wave C of (Y) down may keep leaking lower until August 2023. As … Read more
$ES #macro #ES-mini futures #trading setup This morning ES has tagged 100% extension of the first leg down labelled -a- down: There are two reasons why I would prefer ES to spike to a lower low tomorrow on CPI before a big pullback starts. Reason 1. In corrective a-b-c structures in majority of cases subwave … Read more
$ES #triple three #five wave down In this weekend report we will discuss the big picture including targets for that decline and potential paths how we can get to the targets. Finally, I will explain what scenario I prefer and why. This is our primary bearish macro account: I count the decline off the top … Read more
$NQ #NQ-mini futures #Macro update This is our macro bearish wave count: Note that it finally dropped under the pink 200 MA. That wave count considers a weak (w)-(x)-(y) up structure off the Oct’22 low as a corrective wave B up. The whole structure of the decline off the major top made in Nov’22 can … Read more
$NQ #NQ-mini futures #trading setup #i down ii up setup Let’s look at a macro structure of the decline off the last top made in Nov’22: On the Daily chart above you can see an unfolding corrective structure called Double Three. It is composed of three waves labelled (W) down, (X) up, and (Y) down. … Read more
$ES #ES-mini futures #trading setup In the previous update posted yesterday I concluded: “That is a decent short setup for bears to start an accelerated part of a decline in the heart of the wave -iii- down, its subwave -c- of wave -iii- down.“. Today we have got a nice move down: ES-mini, Daily chart … Read more
$ES #ES-mini futures #trading setup #Expanding Flat The relentless short covering rally seems having stopped today. Before I show you a macro picture I would like to add a couple of notes about that rally and explain what was wrong with it. In my Premium Chat room I post numerous micro updates throughout a day. … Read more
$ES #ES-mini futures #trading setup #Expanding Flat Last Wednesday I shared a bullish short-term scenario that argued for a corrective rally targeting 4,000- 4,027. However, bulls managed to trigger another short covering squeeze on Friday: I consider that rally as a completion of a corrective a-b-c up structure of a corrective subwave -b- up of … Read more
$ES #ES-mini futures #trading setup #Running Flat Yesterday I shared expectations for a bounce off the green target box. This is how it played out: This morning bears only slightly undershot the Green Box but doing that they got exhausted. Then bulls stepped in and produced a rally we expected. Because bears managed to undershoot … Read more
$ES #ES-mini futures #tarding setup ES continues to leak lower. The most bearish count expects for accelerated decline in subwave -c- of wave -iii- down: But we have not seen a pullback that could be counted as a corrective bounce in subwave -b- up of wave -iii- down, a pullback that should precede a very … Read more
$ES #ES-mini futures #trading setup ES-mini continues to consolidate after a strong five wave down move that bottomed at 3,947.25 last Friday. We expected an a-b-c up corrective structure and that structure does not look having completed yet: This move down can be counted as a subwave c of wave -b- down that ca be … Read more
$ES $NQ #trading setup In my weekend update I correctly predicted an upcoming corrective pullback. Both, ES and NQ followed the path I shared in my weekend update: This is how ES-mini looks now: This morning ES-mini topped in a subwave a up and then leaked in a subwave b down the whole day. I … Read more
$ES #ES-mini futures #trading setup Under the most bearish wave count ES-mini has been leaking down off the top of a large corrective wave (B) up that topped in early Feb’23. I call it the most bearish scenario because that wave count allows bears to push ES down in a five wave down structure inn … Read more
$ES #ES-mini futures #trading setup Let’s start form a macro update. We assume that the large corrective subwave Y of a wave (B) up topped in early February 2023. Off that top we should get a large wave down to a new lower low. What we do not know at the moment and can only … Read more
$ES #ES-mini trading #trading setup As we expected, ES pushed lower under 4,000 on Wednesday. Here we can outline two bearish scenarios. There are only minor differences between two scenarios. (1) the Bearish: Under the bearish scenario ES bottomed in a micro wave iii down today and rallied in a subwave a of a corrective … Read more
$ES #ES-mini futures #trading setup Overnight bears managed to test 4,000 level then bulls stepped in and played a pullback. If wave iii down bottomed overnight then we should get a corrective a-b-c up structure of the wave iv up. But the main level I am focusing on is 4,048, the Monthly Support than now … Read more
$NQ #trading setup NQ keeps leaking lower confirming my bearish count that argues that NQ made a major top in a large corrective wave (B) up in early February 2023: I count that decline as a subwave -a- of wave -iii- down that does not look having completed yet. At best NQ has completed a … Read more
$ES #trading setup On Sunday I posted a weekend update where I concluded that the bullish scenario could be proclaimed dead after bears managed to violate the critical support 4,060. That slow unfolding consolidation looks like a wave (i) down or (a) down of a new five or three wave down decline that can undercut … Read more
$ES #trading setup Yesterday ES mini closed a day on a bullish note. It finally broke out over 4,150. This is what I wrote to subscribers of my Premium chat room at 9-39 PM yesterday: ES: Daily Resistance for Thursday is 4,170 ES: Daily Support for Thursday is 4,103.75 basically bulls have to break over … Read more
$ES #macro #trading setup #breakout In the previous update we outlined two scenarios. The bullish one seems having prevailed: On Feb 2, 2023 bulls completed a corrective Double Three structure of a rally that started off the mid Dec’22 low. Bears got a chance to start a new leg down. But all what bears could … Read more
$ES #trading setup As long as bulls hold ES-mini futures over support 4,100 this bullish path will be a feasible scenario: In contrast, a break under 4,100 would be a strongargument in favor of that bearish scenario: Under the bearish wave count, ES completed a corrective wave -x- up today and is ready to leak … Read more
$ES #macro #tradig setup #failure In my weekend update I shared a bullish scenario and noted: “If bears fail to break the first support 4,007 (the low made by the previous pullbacks) bulls can start pushing again. Note that the pullback we got last week stopped right at 200 MA on 120 min timeframe (the … Read more
$NQ #macro #trading setup Last week we discussed a bullish alternative scenario. So far bulls stopped decline right at the major support, 12,258, the Dec 22 high that turned into support: NQ declined in a clean a-b-c down structure and bulls believed that it was a corrective wave iv down to be followed by a … Read more
$ES #macro #weekend #trading setup In this update we will review in details our primary bearish count and discuss a potential path for upcoming week that could bring volatility to the market. The bonus of the update is discussion of an alternative bullish count watched by perm bulls. According to the Bearish count ES completed … Read more
$NQ #macro #breakdown #trading setup In my previous update I repeated several times that bulls would remain in control until bears manage to violate an important support 12,455: Because that support was violated I think we can conclude that the large corrective wave B up completed and a new leg down in a wave C … Read more
$ES #Macro #Double Three #one more high Under the bearish micro scenario ES-mini has topped. But bears need to confirm it by breaking under support 4,098: Yesterday bears failed to break under support and that allowed bulls to counter attack. Nothing inspires bulls for a rally more than failure of bears to break under support. … Read more
$NQ $SMH #Macro #trading setup As long as bulls hold NQ-mini over support 12,455 they will remain in control and will be able to push NQ higher to tag the Red Target box that starts at 13,000: If bears manage to violate the support 12,455 that will be a very strong argument that NQ has … Read more
$ES #Macro #trading setup #Expanding Triangle The macro view has not changed: There are two micro scenarios on the table. The one argues that bulls can push higher to 4,240+. Let’s call is the bullish scenario. Another one argues that ES-mini topped at 4,208.50. Let’s review both of them. (1) Micro Bullish: We are watching … Read more
$NQ #trading setup Bulls can push NQ-mini to a new higher high to set up a bull trap and make small retail traders to go long at the top: That last push higher would tag the Red Target box and complete a large wave B up, a corrective pullback off the October 2022 low.
$ES #Monthly Opening Range The first three trading days of each month sets so called Month Opening Range. The highest price reached during the first three trading days is considered the Monthly Resistance. The lowest price recorded during the first three trading days is recorded as the Monthly Support. The February Monthly Opening range is … Read more
$ES #Weekend #Macro #trading setup #Double Three I count the move up off the Oct’22 low as a large corrective wave B up that has been following a corrective Doube Three structure labelled (w) up, (x) down, (y) up: That structure is often called the “3-3-3” because every wave is subdivided into three subwaves: the … Read more