$ES #ES-mini #trading setup On May 14th I shared my Primary bullish scenario: This is how that chart looks now: In my previous update posted on May 17th I noted: “The first resistance is 4,170. Ideally bulls should consolidate here before they make the next pushup to the next resistance 4,190.” On the chart above … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #trading setup In the previous update I outlined that primary scenario: Today bulls have made the first move up: That path allows bulls to produce a five wave up rally off the low made on the low 4,112 made on May 12th. The first resistance is 4,170. Ideally bulls should consolidate here before … Read more
$NQ #NQ-mini #NQ futures #trading setup Looks like bulls perfectly completed micro five wave up structure of the subwave c of the final wave v up: Bulls may push it higher to 13,565 – 13,570 or 13,600. To confirm completion of the rally and a bearish reversal bears need to push NQ under 13,490
$ES #ES-mini #trading setup #Month Opening Range ES has been unusually calm in a sense that it spent 95% of the tiem inside month opening ranges since the beginning of February: According to the Month Opening Range strategy a failed breakdown under the Monthly Support is normally followed by a rally targeting the Monthly Resistance: … Read more
$NQ #NQ-mini #trading setup NQ is at the major crossroads: (1) Scenario 1: Less Bullish. Bears have a setup to turn Nasdaq down: That Less Bullish count argues that the rally off the October low may top here and a new large leg down may start. To confirm completion of the rally bears need to … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #trading setup The volatile CPI day did not change anything. We still have two bullish setups. (1) The Very Bullish scenario: Under the Very Bullish scenario bulls got a micro i up, ii down setup, a starting point for a large five wave up move: (2) The Least Bullish primary scenario: The Primary … Read more
$ES #ES-charts #trading setup #Elliott Wave Here you can see the whole five wave up move off the March 2023 low: To complete that structure bulls have one more shot to a higher high left. It is possible that we get that final move up as a spike up after positive CPI data to be … Read more
$NQ #NQ-futures #trading setup #Elliott Wave analysis As you can see on the daily chart shown below, the whole move up off the October 2022 low can be counted as a huge corrective Double Three structure, a combination of two -a-b-c-‘s. We label the Double Three corrective structure as (w) up, (x) down, (y) up. … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #trading-setup On Monday we got the narrowest trading range for seven trading days. The rule of thumb is contraction in volatility is followed by expansion in volatility. The ideal scenario to trade would be to get a failed breakout setup: a push over 4,167 followed by a quick bearish reversal and drop under … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #trading setup Remember, a 66.7% retracement is the strongest retracement fib you should always pay attention to. In this report I will show you how that retracement fib can define the path for ES-mini for the following two weeks. (1) The Least Bullish scenario. Let’s start the weekend update from my primary wave … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #trading setup In the Wednesday update I concluded that …”To trigger the textbook long “failed breakdown” setup first bears need to violate the previous low made at 4,068.75 and then bulls need to reclaim that level.” Bulls perfectly played that script today: ES dropped under 4,068.75 twice and then popped twice. ES Daily … Read more
#ES $ES #ES-futures #trading setup Today we completed the Month Opening Range: The Monthly Resistance is 4,206. The Monthly Support is 4,105. From the perspective of the Month Opening Range strategy such a counter trend drop during the second and third day of a month is actually a typical pattern. Once bulls manage to push … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #trading setup A sharp decline on Tuesday hit the lower Green Box: That drop was not something unusual. In fact that is a repeating pattern. This is what I posted for subscribers of my Premium Chat room on Monday afternoon: That a down, b up, c up structure where a corrective subwave b … Read more
$ES #ES-mini futures #trading setup The rule of the Elliott Wave traders club is: an a-b-c move down that stops at 50% retracement fib (that follows a push to fresh highs) is a buy setup. If we get an a-b-c move down into the upper Green Box that would be an attractive long setup to … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #trading setup #Elliott Wave analysis I think we have been dealing with a large corrective pullback off the October 2022 low. Every corrective pullback normally has two legs. The first leg in subwave (a) up or (w) up was structured as an -a-b-c- up structure. The first leg in subwave (a) up or … Read more
$ES #ES-mini futures In the previous update “ES: Bulls Got A Chance To Start Another Rally” we correctly predicted that rally. Today the rally hit the first resistance: That red band is formed by 66.7% and 76.4% retracement fibs applied to the preceding decline. If we get a corrective a-b-c decline shown on the chart … Read more
$ES #ES-mini futures #trading setup In my Tuesday update I shared a micro short setup for another decline targeting 4,078: I explained that: “Bears can push ES-mini lower to the next strong confluence of fibs located at 4,078. That would be the ideal spot for bulls to stop the leakage and turn it back up … Read more
$ES #ES-mini futures In my Sunday update I noted: The last week produced the narrowest weekly trading range for several months. When an extended move is followed by a doji candle with the narrowest range for 8-10 bars that almost always leads to spike in volatility. The rule of thumb for any trader is: “Contraction in … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #trading setup I have two main counts. None of them provides me with arguments that ES can be counted as having made a major top. (1) Macro Less Bullish scenario: I can count the move up off the major October 2022 low as an (a) up, (b) down, (c) up structure where the … Read more
$ES #ES-mini futures #trading setup The last week produced the narrowest weekly trading range for several months. When an extended move is followed by a doji candle with the narrowest range for 8-10 bars that almost always leads to spike in volatility. The rule of thumb for any trader is: “Contraction in Volatility Always Often … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #trading setup #Harmonic Elliott wave analysis In my previous update I noted that bulls would most likely tag the main target at 4,200+. I expected that after the first move down to the main support at 4,100 area bulls would start another strong move up in a corrective wave b up that could … Read more
$ES #ES mini futures #trading setup #Harmonic Elliott wave This is how the bullish scenario looked like in my report dated April 17: Bulls were one step away from the Red Target box but the rally stalled: This morning ES is breaking under the support of the green trend line. It is possible that the … Read more
$ES #ES-mini futures #trading setup #Harmonic Elliott Wave ES has been squeezed in between of two converging green lights: Quite often that type of consolidation patterns gets resolved by a fake breakout that creates a blow-off top that is followed by a brutal bearish reversal and accelerated plunge under the support of the lower green … Read more
$ES #ES-mini futures #trading setup In my previous update I argued that bulls had a setup to push up to 4,200. They started the rally and managed to push ES up to 4,189 on Friday. Then another push down started. This is how a Macro picture looks like: On the chart above you can see … Read more
$ES #ES mini #morning update Overnight bears completed a clean corrective micro wave -iv- down right at the Daily support 4,161 (that level was shared in the evening support). Now as long as bulls hold ES over 4,161 they have a setup to start another leg up in the final subwave -c- of wav e-v- … Read more
$ES #ES-mini futures This morning I sent out a note to share my bullish expectations for a push towards 4,200. The market has been steadily climbing throughout the day: According to my count the move up off the March 2023 low has a clean three wave structure. Therefore I consider it a part of a … Read more
$ES #ES-mini On Thursday I concluded my report: …” Therefore the result of the day is a new higher high and another higher low. That is a setup for bulls to start another rally. The micro resistance for Thursday is 4,129. A break over that level would confirm start of a new rally.” This morning … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #trading setup In two previous updates (here and here) I noted: “Last week S&P completed a Monthly Opening Range for April. The Monthly support is 4,099. The Monthly resistance is 4,171.75. Now direction of a break out of that range would define direction of the next big move during the following two weeks.“ … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #trading setup In my previous update I noted that ES-mini popped to the critical resistance 4,146 and shared my expectation for upcoming move down. Today bears made that push down but they failed to break under the Monthly Support 4,099. In the previous update I noted: “Last week S&P completed a Monthly Opening … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #trading setup #ES-mini futures ES closed a shortened trading session last week at the critical resistance 4,146. As long as bears hold ES under 4,146 that bearish setup will remain a feasible scenario: However, bulls still have potential for another push higher under the bullish scenario we have been following as well: Now … Read more
$ES #ES-mini futures #trading setup This is the bearish scenario I have been tracking: Under that scenario the critical resistance was 4,108, the 66.7% retracement of the preceding decline. Then last Friday on March 31 bulls produced a crazy spike well over that resistance. That violation of the critical resistance made me doubt my count. … Read more
$NQ #NQ-mini #trading setup I consider the overlapping move up off the October 2022 low as a corrective (w) up, (x) down, Y) up structure: That pullback in a wave Y of (X) or (B) up should be followed by a large A-B-C down decline targeting the Green Box. This wave count has only one … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #trading setup Let’s review the bearish count and I will explain why that count can not longer be considered a high probability primary scenario: The bearish count considered the high made in Feb 2023 as the top of a large corrective wave (B) up. According to that wave count the -a-b-c move down … Read more
$ES #ES-mini futures #trading setup #wave C down Yesterday bulls hit the Red Target box under the Bullish scenario: The can push higher into the Red Box to tag the Target 2 = 4,106.25. Note that the morning inflationary data confirmed that inflation persists and bulls do not have data to support that final spike … Read more
$ES #ES-mini futures I found a really clean wave count that can be used for forecasting the next big move in ES-mini. Let’s first start from our primary bearish wave count on a daily timeframe: You can see that this rally started off a low labeled by red letter w. Note that even if ES … Read more
$ES #ES-mini futures #trading setup #slow grinding wave b up I know you are frustrated that ES refuses to follow my bearish scenarios and keeps pushing higher. I am frustrated as well. Let’s first review an alternative bullish count to see whether that slow grinding move up has any legs to go higher. I can … Read more
$ES #ES-mini futures #trading setup Since the market topped in Jan’22 almost every attempt to turn ES back up was shaped as an ascending wedge: And almost every wedge topped after a failed attempt to push higher resulted in a double top (see the yellow dots marking up double tops). This is how the last … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #trading setup ES has completed another bearish wedge that looks very similar to the bearish wedge that was followed by a drop in March: In the weekend update we reviewed two alternative bullish counts that take advantage of the average bullish seasonaity for April. This is the most probable bullish scenario: Under that … Read more
$ES #ES-mini futures The primary Bearish count is still alive: To invalidate the bearish count bulls need to push ES over 4,074. The main problem for bears is that upcoming April is generally a bullish month: The average seasonality for years ending in “3”suggests a bull run starting beginning of April: I can see two … Read more
$ES #ES-mini futures #trading setup #Elliott Wave In several previous reports I kept saying that the pullback was shaped as a bearish ascending wedge was supposed to get broken downside. Yesterday we got a clean breakdown. Until bulls manage to push ES back inside the broken channel bears will remain n control and will have … Read more