$ES #ES-mini #trading setup
I have two main counts. None of them provides me with arguments that ES can be counted as having made a major top.
(1) Macro Less Bullish scenario:
I can count the move up off the major October 2022 low as an (a) up, (b) down, (c) up structure where the final leg up in a wave (c) will be structured as a five wave down move. Under that scenario at the very minimum bulls should push ES higher up to at least 4,248 (the 66.7% ext of the wave (a) up. That count would look better if bulls push ES higher up to 4,306, the 76.4% ext.
Interestingly, 4,260 is 100% ext of the wave W up, a rally off the June low that topped in August 2022.
(2) More complicated and more bullish scenario.
We can count the move up off the October 2022 low as a complex (w)-(x)-(y) corrective structure.
The main difference between the scenario (1) and the scenario (2) is whether the final move up off the March 2023 low is structured as a five wave up move or, as a three wave up move:
Under that scenario (2), ES-mini is going to replay the structure highlighted with the left yellow rectangle.
Note that -a- up, -b- down. -c- up structure in the left yellow rectangle. If we apply the same structure to that current rally off the March 2023 low we can count it as a subwave -a- up to be followed by a corrective subwave -b- down. If we get another leg down without making a new higher high that would be a strong argument in favor of the more bullish and most complicated scenario (2).
ES Daily support for overnight trading and Tuesday is 4,135.
ES Daily resistance for overnight trading and Tuesday is 4,161.
Its amazing that ES stopped right at 4,161 this afternoon!
Break under 4,135 would mean intraday bearish bias and would promise some trending move down at least intraday.
We had a Daily support for Monday at 4,137. Note that bears failed top break under that support twice on Monday morning. As a result, we got another afternoon recovery.