$ES #ES-mini futures
I found a really clean wave count that can be used for forecasting the next big move in ES-mini.
Let’s first start from our primary bearish wave count on a daily timeframe:
You can see that this rally started off a low labeled by red letter w.
Note that even if ES pushes up to 4,109 it will hit a critical resistance of 66.7% retracement of the decline off the Feb’23 high.
Now let’s zoom-in to see micro wave structure behind that move up:
The move up off the mid March low is shaped as a combination of several a-b-c structures. We can count it in a bearish way as a complete w-x-y structure (see purple labels).
Alternatively, followers of traditional Elliott Wave theory calls that pattern the diagonal. It is either an Ending Diagonal that will be followed by a new macro leg down, or that is a Leading Diagonal, a wave ( i ) up of a new five wave up rally.
In both cases a completed diagonal is normally followed by a quick retrace of substantial part of that rally.
There are two main support levels/targets for the retrace:
– 66.7% retracement = 3,935, and
– 76.4% retracement = 3,907
Normally inside that type of a structure which I also called the compressed five wave move wave -iii- tops at 138.2% ext and the wave -v- up tops at 176.4% ext.
However, quite often (roughly in 50% of cases) the fifth final wave extends to 200% ext of the wave -i- up.
Therefore we can get the final spike up to 4,096 (176,.4% ext) with potential spike up to 4,127 (200% ext).
Tomorrow we will get PCE data scheduled to be released at 8-30 AM EST. That PCE may trigger the final spike into the Red Box and reversal. Alternatively we can get the final spike on Monday open triggering a Weekly Overbought signal on Monday open.
Upon completion of that rally into the Red Box I would expect a strong decline targeting the green retracement zone.