$ES: A Rally to 4,200 is Still On The Table

  • CastAwayTrader
  • April 20, 2023
<<< Back to All Updates
<<< Macro Updates

$ES #ES-mini #trading setup #Harmonic Elliott wave analysis

In my previous update I noted that bulls would most likely tag the main target at 4,200+.

I expected that after the first move down to the main support at 4,100 area bulls would start another strong move up in a corrective wave b up that could manage to make a higher high over 4,200.

On Thursday bears completed the first move down that was shaped as a corrective w-x-y- structure:

ES 240 min chart

If you zoom in to a tick bar chart you will see a very clean w-x-y pattern, a combination of two a-b-c down moves:

ES-mini tick bar chart

You can see that ES produced a clean w-x-y down corrective structure that found support very close to the Secondary Daily support 4,134.25. Those levels are calculated by my Cycle Trader indicator for TradingView.

In addition, the 100% extension of the subwave w down was equal to 4,139.50.

Let me repeat my main assumptions behind the macro count posted above.

I think the five wave up rally off the March low topped this week. BUT bulls failed to hit the normal target over 4,200. They left an unfinished business up there. When it happens bears can not start a big move down. That unfinished business of making a higher high works as a magnet for zombie bulls. The three wave w-x-y move down we got can not be all of a corrective pullback in the wave -b- down. Because any corrective pullback has to be proportional to the preceding rally.

It did not take enough time and it did not retrace even a bare minimum 30% of the preceding rally (see the Green Box where the pullback should land on the upper chart above).

These considerations lead me to conclusion that bulls may produce a fake rally in a subwave -b- up that will be able to spike over 4,200. That rally will most likely fail because we did not get a proper pullback and that is an unfinished business for bears now. So that potential spiky move up in a subwave b up to 4,200 -4,220 area would set the stage for a strong drop in a subwave c of wave -b- down targeting 4,090 – 4,050.

Bulls have to take out the Friday Daily resistance 4,158 to confirm start of a rally.

Subscribe to Free Updates

Get Unlimited Access

PrevPreviousES: Will Bulls Tag 4,200+?
Next$ES: Contraction in Volatility Always Often Leads to Expansion in VolatilityNext

More To Explore

$ES: Bears Have A Clean Setup

$ES #ELLIOTT WAVE #trading setup #short setup Bulls squeezed a slighly higher high on Thursday. But ES closed back under

CastAwayTrader May 9, 2025

$ES: Bears Failed to Break the Monthly Support

$ES #Month Opening Range Yesterday, I anticipated a classic “pump-and-dump” scenario following the FOMC announcement. However, that move didn’t materialize.

CastAwayTrader May 8, 2025

Important Disclaimer

CastAway Trader LLC, the publisher of this web-site and videos is not registered as an investment adviser nor a broker/dealer with either the U. S. Securities & Exchange Commission or any state securities regulatory authority. Users of the website www.castawaytrader.com and viewers of the videos are advised that all information presented on the website is solely for informational purposes, is not intended to be used as a personalized investment recommendation, and is not attuned to any specific portfolio or to any user’s particular investment needs or objectives.

Trading stocks, options, or futures carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Before deciding to trade, you should carefully consider your objectives, financial situation, needs and level of experience. CastAway Trader LLC provides general overview of trading methods that does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. The content of this website must not be construed as personal advice. All trading setups and/or trades presented in the web site and/or trading chat room by CastAway Trader an/or by other members of the chat should be considered hypothetical for educational purposes only and should not be expected to be replicated in a live trading account.

An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment. You should not speculate with capital that you cannot afford to lose. Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading. Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing ones’ financial security or life style.

You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading. You should seek advice from an independent financial advisor.

Any information posted on this web site is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, nor is it to be construed as a recommendation to buy, hold or sell (short or otherwise) any security. All users of the website must determine for themselves what specific investments to make or not make and are urged to consult with their own independent financial advisors with respect to any investment decision. The reader bears responsibility for his/her own investment research and decisions, should seek the advice of a qualified securities professional before making any investment, and investigate and fully understand any and all risks before investing. All opinions, analyses and information posted on the website are based on sources believed to be reliable and written in good faith, but should be independently verified, and no representation or warranty of any kind, express or implied, is made, including but not limited to any representation or warranty concerning accuracy, completeness, correctness, timeliness or appropriateness. In addition, CastAwayTrader LLC and its officers and employees undertake no responsibility to notify such opinions, analyses or information or to keep such opinions, analyses or information current. Also be aware that the owners, officers and employees of the web site www.castawaytrader.com may have long or short positions in securities that may be discussed on the website, Premium Trading Chat room and/or in the videos posted by CastAway Trader LLC.

Past results are not indicative of future profits.

Subscribe to Free Updates

Get Unlimited Access