$ES: April Bullish Seasonality Makes Me Consider Alternative Bullish Scenarios

$ES #ES-mini futures

The primary Bearish count is still alive:

To invalidate the bearish count bulls need to push ES over 4,074.

The main problem for bears is that upcoming April is generally a bullish month:

The average seasonality for years ending in “3”suggests a bull run starting beginning of April:

I can see two alternative wave counts that would allow bulls to push the market higher in April 2023:

Alt Bullish (i):

The bullish count (i) allows bears to make the final drop making a lower low ending March by testing the Dec’22 low (3,823).

The bullish count (ii) would not allow bears to make a lower low during this upcoming week:

That bullish count (ii) argues for another corrective rally that can follow an impulsive five wave up path:

Any five wave up rally has to start for a long -i- up, -ii- down long setup:

In conclusion:

all three scenarios argue for ES to play at least one more decline during the upcoming week.

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