ES: Both, the Macro Bullish and the Macro Bearish Scenarios Allow Bulls to Overshoot 4,200 resistance

  • CastAwayTrader
  • April 17, 2023
<<< Back to All Updates
<<< Macro Updates

$ES #ES-mini futures #trading setup #Harmonic Elliott Wave

ES has been squeezed in between of two converging green lights:

ES-mini, 240 min chart, “Bearish Macro”

Quite often that type of consolidation patterns gets resolved by a fake breakout that creates a blow-off top that is followed by a brutal bearish reversal and accelerated plunge under the support of the lower green trend line.

Talking about that Bearish setup I would like to repeat what I said in the morning:

“Bears will consider a push up to 4,220 -4,240 as completion of the whole (a) up, (b) down, (c) up corrective structure off the October 2022 low. That means bears have arguments to believe one more push up would complete the large corrective W up, X down, C up structure off the major low made in June 2022. Therefore, bears will be expecting a new large leg down targeting 3,300 – 3,000. To complete the (a) up, (b) down, (c) up micro structure of the wave Y up bulls need to make a nominal new higher high over subwave (a) up and hit the minimum extension 66.7% of (a) = 4,240.

Even under the macro bearish count to complete that wave (y) up we really need to get a spike over 4,213.”

To find potential targets for a top we can apply an alternative forecasting method called “negative extension”.

We measure decline off the top of the wav iii up to the low made by the wave iv down (the thick dark red line on the chart above) and add -123.6%, -138.2%, and -176.4% projections of that decline. That forecasting method has already nailed the top of the previous spike up at 4,188 (-123.6% ext).

The next important level is -138.2% projection that returns a target at 4,199.

When bulls get euphoric they can push the final wave v up up to -176.4% ext = 4,227. That target 3 fits what I concluded this morning:

“The bullish count allows bulls to push higher up to the 4,213-4,223 level of a macro resistance ⚠️ 4,223 is the 50% retracement of the whole decline off the Jan’22 top.“

This is how a micro wave count looks like:

ES-mini, tick bar chart

Bulls pushed ES-mini to 4,177, the Daily Resistance (as calculated by my Cycle Trader Indicator 24 hour in advance) and 76.4% ext of what could be counted as a micro wave i up. If bulls want to play the blow-off top they need to act overnight and push ES over that resistance 4,177.

That 76.4% extension is normally the first micro resistance. That is the test for bulls. Either they push higher and confirm its a wave iii or price turns down and breaks the support confirming that move up was just a corrective bounce.

Break under 4,138 would most likely bury this bullish count and open the door for a large pullback that we have been waiting for.

As long as bulls hold ES over that support 4,138 bulls will be in control and will keep pushing ES higher towards the targets:

(i) the target 1 for this micro wave iii up is 4,201, and

(ii) the target 2 for a wave v up is 4,215.

Let me quickly remind you about the main difference between the Macro Bullish and the Macro Bearish scenarios.

The Macro bullish scenario has the same short term path that argues for one more push higher to 4,200 that would be followed by a larger pullback:

ES-mini 240 min, Macro Bullish scenario

The difference between the bearish scenario and the bullish one is that the bullish scenario considers the upcoming top as only a temporary top in a subwave -a- up to be followed by a deep retracement in a subwave -b- down targeting 4,065 – 4,035.

Under the macro bullish scenario that drop in a subwave -b- down would be followed by another a-b-c move up that can stretch as high as 4,440.

In conclusion:

The Macro bullish scenario has the same short term path that argues for one more push higher to 4,200 that would be followed by a larger pullback.

Subscribe to Free Updates

Get Unlimited Access

PrevPreviousES: Bulls Have Unfinished Business of Testing a Marco Resistance 4,223
NextES: Will Bulls Tag 4,200+?Next

More To Explore

$ES: Bears Have A Clean Setup

$ES #ELLIOTT WAVE #trading setup #short setup Bulls squeezed a slighly higher high on Thursday. But ES closed back under

CastAwayTrader May 9, 2025

$ES: Bears Failed to Break the Monthly Support

$ES #Month Opening Range Yesterday, I anticipated a classic “pump-and-dump” scenario following the FOMC announcement. However, that move didn’t materialize.

CastAwayTrader May 8, 2025

Important Disclaimer

CastAway Trader LLC, the publisher of this web-site and videos is not registered as an investment adviser nor a broker/dealer with either the U. S. Securities & Exchange Commission or any state securities regulatory authority. Users of the website www.castawaytrader.com and viewers of the videos are advised that all information presented on the website is solely for informational purposes, is not intended to be used as a personalized investment recommendation, and is not attuned to any specific portfolio or to any user’s particular investment needs or objectives.

Trading stocks, options, or futures carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Before deciding to trade, you should carefully consider your objectives, financial situation, needs and level of experience. CastAway Trader LLC provides general overview of trading methods that does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. The content of this website must not be construed as personal advice. All trading setups and/or trades presented in the web site and/or trading chat room by CastAway Trader an/or by other members of the chat should be considered hypothetical for educational purposes only and should not be expected to be replicated in a live trading account.

An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment. You should not speculate with capital that you cannot afford to lose. Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading. Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing ones’ financial security or life style.

You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading. You should seek advice from an independent financial advisor.

Any information posted on this web site is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, nor is it to be construed as a recommendation to buy, hold or sell (short or otherwise) any security. All users of the website must determine for themselves what specific investments to make or not make and are urged to consult with their own independent financial advisors with respect to any investment decision. The reader bears responsibility for his/her own investment research and decisions, should seek the advice of a qualified securities professional before making any investment, and investigate and fully understand any and all risks before investing. All opinions, analyses and information posted on the website are based on sources believed to be reliable and written in good faith, but should be independently verified, and no representation or warranty of any kind, express or implied, is made, including but not limited to any representation or warranty concerning accuracy, completeness, correctness, timeliness or appropriateness. In addition, CastAwayTrader LLC and its officers and employees undertake no responsibility to notify such opinions, analyses or information or to keep such opinions, analyses or information current. Also be aware that the owners, officers and employees of the web site www.castawaytrader.com may have long or short positions in securities that may be discussed on the website, Premium Trading Chat room and/or in the videos posted by CastAway Trader LLC.

Past results are not indicative of future profits.

Subscribe to Free Updates

Get Unlimited Access