ES: One More Pullback Could Be A Great Short Opportunity

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$ES #ES-mini futures #tarding setup

ES continues to leak lower. The most bearish count expects for accelerated decline in subwave -c- of wave -iii- down:

ES-mini Daily chart

But we have not seen a pullback that could be counted as a corrective bounce in subwave -b- up of wave -iii- down, a pullback that should precede a very strong decline in subwave -c- of wave -iii- down.

A subwave -b- up of wave -iii- down should have a a-b-c internal structure. Let’s zoom in to 15 min chart:

ES-mini 15 min chart

I count that overnight decline as a subwave b down of a corrective a-b-c up structure of a subwave -b- up of wave -iii- down (see letters a up, b down, c up circled in red).

Because this decline made a lower low under the low made last Friday, I count that a-b-c up pullback as a very bearish Running Flat structure.

That means the final push higher in subwave c up can be very weak. It can be as weak as 76.4% ext of subwave a up. That means it can top at 3,990 and then a very strong decline in subwave -c- of wave -iii- down may start. If subwave c up extends to 100% of subwave a up that means the next leg up would top at 4,009 (if we do not get lower lows overnight).

Target 1 for a strong decline in subwave -c of wave -iii- down = 3,750, a 100% ext of subwave -a- of wave -iii- down and re-test of the Nov’22 low.

In conclusion, if we get a corrective pullback up to 3,990 that would be a chance to sell long positions and a very attractive short setup.

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CastAwayTrader May 9, 2025

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