$ES #macro #tradig setup #failure
In my weekend update I shared a bullish scenario and noted:
“If bears fail to break the first support 4,007 (the low made by the previous pullbacks) bulls can start pushing again. Note that the pullback we got last week stopped right at 200 MA on 120 min timeframe (the pink line). Here you can see how important that 4,000 support is. If bears stop right here, then bulls will be able to push ES higher up to 4,377-4,400.”
On Sunday night bears had a decent short setup to make a new lower low but failed as soon as they tested the first micro support 4,082. Then ES-mini managed to violate the immediate resistance 4,107 and by doing that they invalidated the bearish count.
When the market completes a Double Three corrective structure, bears get a chance to start a new leg down.
However, when bears fail to violate an important support, the completed Double Three structure may morph into a Triple Three structure by pushing higher in another a-b-c up structure:
Note that bears failed to break under support 4,007.
Now we can and should move the support up to 4,060.75.
If and when bulls manage to push ES over that declining red trendline the rally will most likely accelerate.
To invalidate that bullish setup bears need to violate that new support 4,060. Until bears manage to push ES under 4,060 bulls will remain in control and will be able to keep pushing ES higher towards the Red Target box.
The main catalyst that is capable of pushing the market over the resistance or under the support is Consumer Price Index that will be released tomorrow morning at 8-30 AM EST.