$ES #Macro #trading setup #Expanding Triangle
The macro view has not changed:
There are two micro scenarios on the table. The one argues that bulls can push higher to 4,240+. Let’s call is the bullish scenario. Another one argues that ES-mini topped at 4,208.50. Let’s review both of them.
(1) Micro Bullish:
We are watching the final move of the subwave c of -y- of (y) of Y of (B) up, a large correction off the October 2022 low. For the ideal completion of the structure bulls should push ES to a new higher high over the high made at 4,208.50 in early Feb ’23.
At this point we should move the critical support up to 4,098, the morning low. A violation of that low would firmly confirm completion of wave (B) up.
(2) The Micro bearish scenario.
There is an alternative scenario that argues that ES-mini has already topped in a large wave (B) up:
If we zoom-in to 30 min chart we will see that the wild whipsaw we got today can be counted as a corrective Expanding Triangle structure that topped as close of the day:
As long as bears hold ES under 4,208.50, the previous high that bearish setup will be a feasible scenario. I really like the micro count of teh bearish scenario.
We are watching the final move of the subwave c of -y- of (y) of Y of (B) up, a large correction off the October 2022 low. Once the wave (B) up tops out we should get a large decline in a wave (C) down targeting a new lower low under the October 2022 low. The minimum target for the wave (C) is 3,360. That is a perfect confluence of 76.4% ext of wave (A) down and negative 123.6% ext of that wave (B) up.
As long as bulls hold ES-mini over 4,098 they will keep alive the bullish scenario that allows them to push ES higher up to 4,240.