ES: Macro Update: Very Limited Upside is Left

  • CastAwayTrader
  • February 7, 2023
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$ES #Macro #trading setup #Expanding Triangle

The macro view has not changed:

ES-mini, Daily chart

There are two micro scenarios on the table. The one argues that bulls can push higher to 4,240+. Let’s call is the bullish scenario. Another one argues that ES-mini topped at 4,208.50. Let’s review both of them.

(1) Micro Bullish:

ES-mini, 240 min chart

We are watching the final move of the subwave c of -y- of (y) of Y of (B) up, a large correction off the October 2022 low. For the ideal completion of the structure bulls should push ES to a new higher high over the high made at 4,208.50 in early Feb ’23.

At this point we should move the critical support up to 4,098, the morning low. A violation of that low would firmly confirm completion of wave (B) up.

(2) The Micro bearish scenario.

There is an alternative scenario that argues that ES-mini has already topped in a large wave (B) up:

ES-mini, 240 min chart

If we zoom-in to 30 min chart we will see that the wild whipsaw we got today can be counted as a corrective Expanding Triangle structure that topped as close of the day:

ES-mini, 30 min chart

As long as bears hold ES under 4,208.50, the previous high that bearish setup will be a feasible scenario. I really like the micro count of teh bearish scenario.

In conclusion:

We are watching the final move of the subwave c of -y- of (y) of Y of (B) up, a large correction off the October 2022 low. Once the wave (B) up tops out we should get a large decline in a wave (C) down targeting a new lower low under the October 2022 low. The minimum target for the wave (C) is 3,360. That is a perfect confluence of 76.4% ext of wave (A) down and negative 123.6% ext of that wave (B) up.

As long as bulls hold ES-mini over 4,098 they will keep alive the bullish scenario that allows them to push ES higher up to 4,240.

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