$ES: Both Micro Scenarios Argue for A Move Lower

  • CastAwayTrader
  • October 9, 2023
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$ES #ES #trading setup #Elliott Wave #a-b-c down

In my Sunday weekend macro update we correctly predicted a move down that was supposed to follow the Friday’s rally.

The uncertainty we currently face is whether that move down will be an impulsive one to make a new lower low (see the bearish SPX chart).

Or, alternatively, we can get an a-b-c down corrective pullback making a higher low that would complete the Right Shoulder of the bullish reversal Inverse Head and Shoulder pattern (see the bullish SPX chart).

Now I will show you how those two scenarios look like on ES-mini charts.

ES-mini micro bullish scenario:

Before bears start another leg down(see the red section) we can see bulls pushing ES up to fill the open gap down (see the black segment):

ES-mini 60 min chart

To keep this bullish setup alive bulls have to stop the next red leg down at or near the lower green box.

ES-mini micro bearish scenario:

Under the bearish micro scenario the Friday rally was a subwave -c- that completed a corrective wave -iv- up shaped as a very bearish Running Flat structure:

ES-mini, 60 min chart

The bearish micro allows bears to produce a move down to a new lower low (4,200 – 4,165).

We can conclude that both alternative scenarios allow bears to make another push lower after a morning bullish pullback that can fill the overnight gap down.

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