$ES #ES-mini #trading setup
This morning I posted an update arguing for another push lower to test the Green Box:
This is how that chart looks like now:
As a result, bulls get a clean long setup, a flat a down, -b- up, -c- down consolidation.
This morning I posted a “spaghetti” model that argued for ES-mini futures to make one push lower. then turn up and produce at least a corrective -a- up, -b- down, -c- up structure:
This is how that chart looks like now:
Note that ES-mini tested the upper edge of the green Macro Demand Zone.
Those three paths shown on the chart posted above are all valid scenarios.
All three scenarios shown on the “spaghetti model” chart allow bulls to push ES up to 4,520 – 4,530.
I think any move over the upper edge of the red supply zone (4,543) would be a strong argument in favor of the most bullish black scenario.
A straight move rally up to 4,520 – 4,532 would fit the bearish scenario visualized in the dark red line on the chart above.
$SPX: All three paths allow bulls to push $SPX/ES higher but once bulls hit the red trend line that would be a point where only one scenario will survive:
All three paths allow bulls to push SPX/ES higher but once bulls hit the red trend line (4,493 – 4,500) that would be a point where only one scenario will survive.
This is how that set of scenarios / paths look like for ES-mini futures:
Tomorrow we will get the key catalyst of a month, the FOMC decision about changing interest rate that will be announced at 2-00 PM EST. Even more important event will be a press conference by the FED Chairman Jerome Powell scheduled at 2-30 PM EST.
Please remember, on a FOMC day we can get 5-6 large intraday swings. Trade small, trade responsibly.