$SPX #ES #S&P500 #Macro #Weekedn #Weekend We continue to follow two different macro path, the blue bullish and the red bearish ones: On July 23rd I shared this weekly chart: On Aug 18th I predicted a turn up off the Green Demand zone: On Aug 30 I updated those two paths: This is how that … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #trading setup #Elliott Wave Yesterday I correctly predicted a bullish bounce triggered by a micro bullish Head and Shoulders pattern: We got that bounce: Here we have two conflicting patterns. A macro bearish Head and Shoulders vs a micro bullish inverted Head and Shoulders. This is how the macro bearish Head and Shoulders … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #trading setup #Head and Shoulders On a macro chart everyone watches that huge Head and Shoulders bearish reversal pattern: This is how that Head and Shoulders is supposed to work: !!! Please note that we are moving from expiring Sep’23 contract to ESZ23, a contract that will expire in Dec’23. Therefore, numbers will … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #trading setup #Head and Shoulders This is the macro bearish Head and Shoulders reversal pattern: To trigger that bearish setup bears need to break under its neckline located at 4,368.50. Break under that level would point to a target for decline in a large wave C down to 4,100. The first support would … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #trading setup Today ES-mini dropped to an upward sloped 50 Daily MA: Moreover, both, ES-mini and NQ-mini, made three consecutive lower lows on daily. When we get three consecutive lower lows that is a sign that trend turns down. But to make traders life painful the market immediately bounces and the bounce is … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #trading setup #Elliott Wave On Friday we closed the week with an attractive short setup. I posted that chart last Friday: This morning we hit that target. This is how ES looks like now on a tick bar chart: The whole decline can be counted as a corrective -w- down, -x- up, -y- … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #Monthly Opening Range #trading range I keep teaching my followers a mighty strategy that helps me a lot in forecasting the market. That strategy, for example, helped me to correctly predict a bullish reversal on August 18 and a bearish reversal on September 1st. Let me briefly explain you that strategy. The first … Read more
$ES #ES #trading setup #bullish wedge #Elliott Wave #trading startegy The micro Head and Shoulders setup produced a very weak move down. The whole structure off the last high made on Sep 1st looks like a completed corrective -w-x-y- down: After the Tuesday close ES-mini has made a slightly lower low and by doing that … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #trading setup #Elliott Wave Interestingly we get a similar picture on a macro and a micro timeframes. We got bearish Head and Shoulders pattern both, on a 240 min chart and on a tick bar chart: Note that on a macro 240 min chart ES is sitting over the supply zone that turned … Read more
$NQ #NQ-mini #trading setup #Elliott Wave #trading strategy NQ-mini futures looks having completed the Right Shoulder of a large bearish reversal Head and Shoulders pattern: If NQ has topped making a lower high then we can expect another large down to make a new lower low (under the low made in mid August). There is … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #trading setup #Elliott Wave #trading strategy Today ES-mini futures completed the bearish Head and Shoulders reversal pattern: The neckline 4,514 was violated twice today. Now look at that a-b-c flat structure in the yellow box. Remember the rule for up trending market: “A flat a-b-c shaped pullback / consolidation that finds support at … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #trading setup #Elliott Wave #trading strategy ES-mini has a bearish look: I really like how price broke under support of the trendline and then bounced hard to test that line from below. So far price stopped right at the critical resistance, a 66.7% retracement of the August decline: We can tolerate a momentarily … Read more
$NQ #NQ #trading setup #Elliott Wave #trading strategy We got an -w-x-y- up bounce into the resistance of the Red Box. That move up looks like the Right Shoulder of the Bearish Head and Shoulders reversal pattern. That setup allows bears to start a new large leg down in a wave (c). Let’s zoom in: … Read more
$SPX #S&P 500 #Macro Forecast #Weekly #Elliott Wave On Aug 21st I posted that chart with two potential macro paths: That chart demonstrates how we can handle uncertainty that is essential part of the stock market. To be able to make money in the stock market by trying to guess what can happen next we … Read more
$ES #ES #trading setup #Elliott Wave #trading strategy If we look at a macro 240 min chart we can see a three wave up move that looks like a corrective pullback: The move up off the mid August low has been following a corrective -w- up, -x- down, -y- up structure: That corrective -w-x-y- structure … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #trading setup #Elliott Wave #trading strategy Yesterday we correctly predicted that violent rally: My conclusion was: “That flat consolidation is a solid base for bulls for a new rally targeting 4,495.” This is how that chart looks like now: Let’s zoom out to see where we got with that rally: We have got … Read more
$ES #ES #trading setup #Elliott Wave Let’s refresh the big picture looking at the weekly chart below: My primary scenario assumes that ES-mini made a lasting top in late July 2023. And I consider this rally as a corrective bounce. Now let’s zoom-in to a 15 min chart: On this chart you can see one … Read more
$ES #ES #trading setup #Elliott Wave Yesterday I posted two different scenarios. Bears had a great scenario for a breakdown but I shared my concerns: “Bears sit on a great short setup. But to trigger that setup the key weekly support 4,368 has to be broken. Until that happens we can see another trip higher … Read more
$NQ #NQ-mini #trading setup #Elliott Wave #trading strategy In mid August decline stopped at the Green Box, the ideal place to complete a corrective (a)-(b)-(c) down structure: This is when and where bulls could turn NQ up and start a new rally to a higher high in a wave (v) up. But on the way … Read more
$ES #ES #Weekend #Elliott Wave In my Thursday report I outlined two alternative scenarios, a bullish and the bearish one. Today we will review them in details. But first I would like to comment on my primary scenario: Many bears expect the upcoming second leg down in the wave (C) to break under the October … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #trading setup #five waves down Yesterday I shared a bearish path and noted that it would be valid as long as bears keep ES-mini under 4,409: So far ES has been nicely following that path. Note that it dropped down to the point marked up with the green arrow and now is bouncing … Read more
$ES #ES #trading setup #breakdown #Elliott Wave Yesterday I posted a chart showing that ES-mini hit the supply zone: I kept talking about that bearish reversal Head and Shoulders pattern days before the crowd finally took notice. First I shared expectations for un upcoming bounce on August 17th then on August 21st. My macro expectations … Read more
$NQ #NQ-mini futures #trading setup #Elliott Wave On Tuesday I posted this chart It showed a bullish widely watched scenario where a test of the major support was supposed to be followed by a new rally in a wave (v) up targeting new higher highs of the 2023 year. However, I put a lower red … Read more
$Es #ES-mini #trading setup #Elliott Wave #trading strategy We have got a bounce to the lower edge of a Red supply zone: That supply zone stopped two strong rallies in June and July 2023. Moreover, that move up looks like the right shoulder of the bearish reversal head and shoulders pattern, recognized by millions of … Read more
$NQ #NQ-mini #trading setup #Elliott Wave On August 17th I noted that the minimum bullish expectation was a rally to the Red Box on a Daily chart with the lower edge at 15,318. On August 22 I talked about a bearish Head and Shoulders reversal shown on the 240 min chart below: I noted that … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #trading setup #a-b-c up #Elliott Wave Yesterday I shared an expected path for continuation of the corrective a-b-c up bounce off the low made last Friday: In my Premium Chat room I shared this micro path on a 15 min chart: This is how that chart looks like now: As long as bulls … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #trading setup #Elliott Wave Yesterday I shared a micro forecast for a micro rally targeting 4,418 – 4,435. We got that rally and today ES-mini topped at 4,440. Let’s update two macro scenarios we have been watching. (i) Bearish scenario: Bears believe that the two day bounce was a corrective wave iv up. … Read more
$NQ #NQ-mini #trading futures #Elliott Wave #trading strategy In my previous update on NQ-mini futures I noted that it dropped to the Green Traget box: My forecast was: “I expect to get at least a corrective a-b-c up bounce to test the Red Box. If bulls manage to break over the Red Box they would … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #trading setup #Elliott Wave #a-b-c up bounce I keep watching two macro scenarios on a weekly chart of S&P cash index: The main difference between the bullish blue path and the bearish red path is how far this move up off the upper demand zone can go. My primary scenario is the red … Read more
$es #es-mini #trading setup #Elliott Wave My macro count has not changed for months. I continue to consider the move down that bottomed in Oct 2022 as the first leg down in a macro (A) down, (B) up, and (C) down structure: I consider the 2023 rally as a corrective wave (B) up that most … Read more
$SPX #S&P 500 #weekly #Elliott Wave ES-mini futures kept tanking to new lows overnight. I expected ES-mini to produce at least a bounce off 4,400 support but dropped much lower. When something unexpected happens we always should zoom-out and look at the big picture. On July 30 I posted my bearish outlook for S&P: My … Read more
$NQ #NQ-mini #trading setup #Elliott Wave We can count the move down off the July high as a corrective (a)-(b)-(c) down structure: NQ dropped to the Green Box formed by two retracement fibs, 30% and 41.4%. NQ has hit the target 1 = 14,829, a 30% retracement of the preceding five wave up rally. I … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #trading setup #Elliott Wave #trading strategy On Tuesday I concluded: “In ideal case this move down should extend down to 4,405 or slightly under 4,400 to run numerous protective stops.“ So far ES-mini dropped down to 4,109.50 yesterday after close. At this point we can not confidently say if ES has bottomed or … Read more
$NQ #NQ-mini futures #trading setup In the previous macro update I reiterated my expectation for this decline to eventually test the main support at 14,900: I can perfectly count that decline as a completed corrective double three structure of a wave (iv) down. Upon completion of a wave (iv) down we normally get a strong … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #trading futures #trading setup #Elliott Wave #trading strategy Yesterday I concluded that bears could push ES-mini lower. On Monday I shared that bearish path and ES-mini keeps following it: I concluded that Monday bearish report with the following: “Bears have a setup to turn ES-mini down and start a subwave c of wave … Read more
$NQ #nq-mni futures #trading setup #Elliott Wave #trading strategy This morning NQ is testing a micro demand zone formed by four previous bears’ attacks: The ideal scenario to trade is a failed breakdown setup when price drops slighly under 15,040 but then bulls step in and turn NQ back up. That drop under support would … Read more
$es #es-mini #trading setup #Elliott Wave Yesterday evening I posted a chart that argues for bears to make at least one more push lower down to 4,437. Ideal to trade scenario for today is a breakdown under that quadruple bottom (blue line at 4,447.50), quick emotional drop down to the Green Box followed by a … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #trading setup #Elliott Wave Yesterday I shared a decent short setup: I concluded that report with the following: “Bears have a setup to turn ES-mini down and start a subwave c of wave -y- down targeting the Green Demand Zone. The first support is 4,438.“ Today ES opened with a gap down and … Read more
$NQ #NQ-mini #trading setup #Elliott Wave #trading strategy In the previous update I shared a setup for a rally: NQ rallied as expected, hit the Red Box, turned down and dropped overnight. It nicely followed the path I shared with you in the previous update: Let’s zoom out to a 120 min chart and discuss … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #trading setup #Elliott Wave In the morning update I shared a bullish path for ES-mini futures: This is how that forecast played out: Bulls pushed ES-mini into the Red Target box as expected! I can only reiterate my conclusion from the morning report: “If bulls fail to break over the Red Box on … Read more