$ES #ES #Macro The extremely violent and rare early November rally hit the Supply zone 4,400-4,415 and stalled: Note that this same band 4,400-4,415 stopped several major up and down swings in 2023. I maintain a bearish macro view: (i) the rally in 2023 was a corrective wave (B) up and it topped in July … Read more
$ES #ES Bears had a chance to turn ES-mini down off the resistance 4,381. However, bears failed. Most likely this rally will test and push ES over 4,430, the October high. A break over the previous high would allow brokers to enforce margin calls and cover shorts of retail traders. This is a micro path … Read more
$SPX $NQ #trading setups I am going to show you two amazing fractals that seem to be replaying by S&P 500 and NQ. Let’s start from S&P cash index: Look at the bearish reversal Head and Shoulders pattern formed at the top of 2021: Note that strong rally in April 2022. S&P came back up … Read more
$NQ $ES #ES-mini #trading setup #Elliott Wave I do not see any macro bullish scenario. I consider this short covering rally as a corrective bounce. I expect that bounce to top making a lower high. Let’s review two main scenarios I will be watching: The SCENARIO 1: Bearish: Running Flat pullback: I can not find … Read more
$NQ #NQ-mino Yesterday I noted that if bears fail to stop NQ at 15,000 the rally would extend up to 15,200. Now NQ has approached that target 2: Here bears will get another opportunity to start a new leg down in a wave -iii-.
$ES #ES-mini #trading setup On October 27 I noted that ES-mini hit an important support 4,160: This is what I wrote back then: “Today bulls managed to violate the key support. They broke the neck of the rally and confirmed there would be no higher highs over the Jan’22 highs at least for months to … Read more
$NQ #NQ-mini #trading setup #Elliott Wave The steepness of this ascent and lack of a structure behind that rally leaves little doubts that we deal with a subwave -c- in a corrective -a-b-c- up structure: The main question is whether bears stop the rally at the lower edge of the Red Box, at 100% ext … Read more
$ES #ES #Elliott Wave #trading setup #Inverse Head and Shoulders Yesterday I noted that if bulls manage to violate the resistance 4,273 my immediate bearish scenario will get invalidated: Overnight bulls continued to push higher and they solidly violated the resistance 4,276. That violation killed the immediate bearish scenario that considered that move up as … Read more
$ES #ES #trading setup Afternoon update, 2-40 PM EST Afternoon update, 3-50 PM EST Yesterday bulls completed a double three corrective structure, a combination of two a-b-c up structure. Bears had a chance to start a new leg down but failed. When such failure happens a bounce extends adding another a-b-c up move: Now we … Read more
$NQ #NQ #trading setup I think we are dealing with a corrective bounce in a wave (b) up to be followed by another leg down in a wave (c) down: If we zoom-in to a tick bar chart we can see a completed corrective -w-x-y- up structur ebehind that move up: Bulls hit a confluence … Read more
$ES #ES #trading setup #Elliott Wave #Double Three Afternoon update, 3-38 PM EST In my Sunday weekend report I shared two bearish scenarios. I concluded the Weekend report with the forecast for temporary bounce that would set the stage for a strong panic driven decline: “ES could have bottomed in a subwave a of -y- … Read more
$NQ #NQ #trading setup #Elliott Wave Afternoon update, 2-56 PM EST Note where this rally stopped. Right at the trend line that used to be a support but then got broken and turned into a resistance. This case is a great illustration of significance of a 76.4% ext which I call “the risk level” (14,170). … Read more
$ES #ES #trading setup #Elliott Wave This morning I published my bearish macro outlook based on weekly and daily charts of S&P 500 cash index: I can apply the same wave count to ES-mini: Under that count ES should decline off the mid Oct’23 high in a -w-x-y- down structure to 3,980. ES could have … Read more
$ES #ES #MACRO #WEEKEND #Weekend The previous week solidly invalidated the alternative bullish scenario that allowed bulls to make a new higher high in 2023. That bullish scenario is dead. Now we can entirely focus on two bearish alternative paths: The minimum macro target for this decline is 3,844, a 66.7% retracement of the 2022 … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #trading setup #Elliott Wave So far bears failed to break under a strong support 4,160. We discussed significance of that support in the previous update. Ideally we need to get a bounce big enough to be comparable in time spent by the previous move down: An a-b-c up bounce to the Red Box … Read more
$ES #ES #trading setup updated at 3-54 PM EST Yesterday I shared expectations for a drop down to 4,160: Today the target has been hit: Bears can undershoot the important support at 4,160 by 10-15 points but then I will expect a strong bounce back over that level in a corrective wave (b) up to … Read more
$NQ #NQ #trading setup #Elliott Wave #breakdown #76.4% risk level On October 18 I noted: “We can say that 14,886 is a strong support (66.7% retracement of the previous rally). Break under that level would be a break under both trendlines, the black and the blue one, those that now try to stop this decline. … Read more
$ES #ES #trading setup #Elliott Wave #breakdown #acceleration In the first morning update morning I noted: “Break under 4,224 would bury that bullish potential and most likely trigger a breakdown scenario arguing for decline down to 4,145”. In the afternoon update I reaffirmed that bearish expectations: “Bears broke under 4,221 support and confirmed this bearish … Read more
$ES #ES #trading setup #Elliott Wave The noon update, posted at 11-55 AM. The afternoon update at 2-23 PM. That whipsaw off the last low made on Sunday evening looks like a bearish triangle shaped consolidation: Bulls still have a chance to produce a spiky move up over the quadruple resistance 4,285. But such a … Read more
$ES $NQ #trading setup #Elliott wave If we get a decline down to the Green Box that decline would complete the textbook flat a-b-c consolidation, a continuation long setup to ride the second leg up in a wave -c-: NQ-mini has an identical path: Let’s zoom out: For both ES and NQ, even if bulls … Read more
$ES #ES #trading setup #Elliott Wave , I think bulls will get an opportunity for one more corrective rally in a subwave C of wave 2 up before a strong decline will start. There are three potential support levels: (i) 4,208.75. ES-mini has almost tagged that first upper level and produced a nice bounce today; … Read more
$NQ #NQ #trading setup #Elliott Wave This morning bears undercut the double bottom but then bulls stepped in and reclaimed that broken support 14,586: That rally would be just a “dead cat bounce”, a corrective pullback, in a subwave (c) of a corrective wave ( ii ) up. completed corrective wave (ii) up shaped as … Read more
$ES #ES #trading setup #Elliott Wave #weekend In a Weekend Macro update published on Sunday October 8 I posted that Primary bearish scenario: A week ago on Sunday, October 15 I updated that bearish path: This is how that chart looks like now: Bulls have an opportunity to produce a corrective after ES tested a … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #trading setup #Elliott Wave Yesterday I noted that if bears break under 4,291 scenario they will open the door for a drop down top the next support at 4,225. This morning that scenario got confirmed: 4,265 is a weak support, at best it can produce a weak bounce to the morning open. The … Read more
$ES #ES #trading setup #Elliott Wave #breakdown #Gann Under the bullish scenario bulls still have a chance to stop this decline at the lower edge of the Green Box, turn ES back up and produce the second leg up in a wave (c) up targeting the Red Box: In 90% of cases a corrective bounce … Read more
$NQ #NQ #trading setup #Elliott Wave Added morning update at 9-56 AM Added noon update at 11-26 AM EST Added afternoon update at 3-36 PM EST The decline stopped yesterday at the very important intersection of two macro trendlines: We can say that 14,886 is a strong support (66.7% retracement of the previous rally). Break … Read more
$ES #ES #trading setup #Elliott Wave Yesterday I posted that bearish path: Today ES-mini tested the Green Box: ES stopped at the upper edge of the Green Box. That is a 50% retracement of the preceding rally. Bulls get a setup to attack that 4,420 resistance again and this time they should be able to … Read more
$NQ #trading setup #OPEX All bears made is a bullish looking descending wedge: Bulls sit on a long setup to produce another push higher into Friday OPEX. OPEX weeks have specific seasonality: They often start an OPEXweek at the high, then we get two day pullback with Tuesday being the most bearish day of the … Read more
$ES #ES #trading setup #Elliott Wave Yesterday I started an experiment that should deliver additional value to subscribers of “Big Picture” plans. I started to add intraday updates to previously posted reports. A morning update to the morning report flagged a great long setup triggered by the bullish Inverse Head and and Shoulders structure (posted … Read more
$NQ #NQ #trading setup #Elliott Wave The macro bearish setup allows bears to produce either a large wave ( iii ) down or an a-b-c move down in a wave ( y ) down: If we zoom-in to a 30 min chat we will see a micro i down, ii up short stup for a … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #trading futures #trading setup #Elliott Wave So far all what bears did is they produced a corrective flat a-b-c consolidation OVER the broken-resistance-turned-support: A flat a-b-c consolidation OVER the broken-resistance-turned-support is a reliable continuation long trading setup. First, price is over 4,376, the breakout point. Second, proce turned back down to the black … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #trading setup Even under the bullish scenario this rally could be a part of a corrective subwave -b- up to be followed by another decline in a subwave -c- down: The Bearish scenario is in agreement with that bearish path: NQ-chart concurs. Please check the morning update. I have added an afternoon update … Read more
$NQ #NQ-mini #trading futures #Elliott Wave #trading setup #AfternoonUpdate Last week NQ-mini hit the upper red trend line and turned down as expected. The -a-b-c- move up making yet another lower high is a short setup. This bearish wave count allows bears to push NQ down to at least 14,200 with potential extension down to … Read more
$ES #ES #trading setup #Elliott Wave The Primary Bearish scenario allows bulls to make one more push lower to produce a clean (a)-(b)-(c) up corrective structure off the early October low. This is how that scenario looked like as of last Sunday: This is how that scenario looks now: Let’s zoom in to a 120 … Read more
$ES #ES #trading setup #Elliott Wave This morning ES-mini completed the a-b-c pullback we expected yesterday: We have two path leading to the target around 4,300. More probable and less bearish Double Three structure: Under that scenario we are inside the double three structure, specifically its wave -y- down shaped as an a-b-c down structure. … Read more
$NQ #NQ #Elliott Wave #trading setup #Head and Shoulders In my evening update yesterday I posted a chart showing the Red Box that was expected to stop the rally: This morning NQ made a slightly higher high and then dropped hard out of the Red Box. Before we discuss the path NQ can take I … Read more
$ES #ES #trading setup $Elliott Wave This drop confirms the rally has topped. Now we want bears to violote support 4,377 and slightly undershoot it. It can stretch to 4,372 – 4,367 but then I would expect another dead cat bounce to re-test the broken support 4,377 from below. Failure to get over 4,400 – … Read more
$NQ #NQ #Elliott Wave #trading setup NQ-mini futures produced a clean (a) up, (b) down, (c) up structure into the 50% retracement fib: NQ makes the fifth consecutive higher high on Daily. If it opens like that on Thursday it will make it extremely overbought on Daily timeframe. If I zoom-in to a micro tick … Read more
$ES #SPX #Elliott Wave #Macro The Most Bearish Macro scenario is that we deal with a corrective wave X up: Under that scenario this strong move up should fail in the red box and followed by another (a)-(b)-(c) move down under 4,000. The Less Bearish Macro Scenario 2: The less bearish macro scenario expects an … Read more
$ES #ES #trading setup #Elliott Waves So we got an (a)-(b)-(c) up move back to re-test the broken neckline from below: Let’s zoom in: Bulls have hit the red supply zone. It is possible that this rally extends up to 4,420, the 41.4% retracement of the preceding decline. I expect that this attempt to break … Read more