$ES: Bounced As Expected, Bears Got a Big Short Setup

  • CastAwayTrader
  • October 31, 2023
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$ES #ES #trading setup #Elliott Wave #Double Three

Afternoon update, 3-38 PM EST

In my Sunday weekend report I shared two bearish scenarios. I concluded the Weekend report with the forecast for temporary bounce that would set the stage for a strong panic driven decline:

“ES could have bottomed in a subwave a of -y- of (w) down last Friday. That count allows bulls to produce a bounce to 4,204 in a subwave b up. That bounce in a subwave b up should be followed by a very strong accelerated decline in a subwave c of wave -y- of (w) down. Under that count ES should decline off the mid Oct’23 high in a -w-x-y- down structure to 3,980.”

We have got the bounce we expected:

ES-mini 120 min chart

Let’s zoom-in to a micro tick bar chart to inspect a micro structure of that bounce:

ES-mini, tick bar chart

As I noted on Sunday “That count allows bulls to produce a bounce to 4,204 in a subwave b up.“

We can count this move up as the second leg up in a corrective -a-b-c- up or -w-x-y- up that is approaching the Red Box. it can stop at the lower edge of the Red Box (4,204) or stretch higher into the Red box (It can stretch higher, at least to 4,222-4,232).

There are two Gann’s levels that can work as resistance:

My main assumption is that ES and SPX have been following the Double Three corrective structure of the July 2023 high:
Under that fractal/pattern, the final push down shoudl come as the strongest panic driven drop that looks like the heart of teh five wave down structures, its subwave C of wave 3 down.

‼️ The safest approach to trade that uber bearish scenario is to go short on a breakdown under 4,145.

.

Afternoon update, 3-38 PM EST

We can consider this pullback having made enough micro squiggles to be completed:

ES-mini tick bar chart

This pullback has a corrective micro structure and has tagged the lower edge of the Red Box,

Bears can stop at the lower edge of the Red Box (4,204). Alternatively, this slow grinding move up may stretch higher into the Red box (to 4,222-4,232).

I expect this pullback to be followed by another large leg down.

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