$ES #ES-mini #trading setup #Head and Shoulders Almost any big bearish reversal is shaped as a Head and Shoulders pattern or Wyckoff Distribution pattern: The distinctive feature of the Head and Shoulders pattern is a sharp drop following the head, exactly like the one we got yesterday afternoon. To complete that bearish reversal structure we … Read more
#ES #es-mini #macro outlook I count the November – December rally as a completed subwave -b- up to be followed by a strong scary drop in a subwave -c- down: This wave count argues for a strong drop to 4,387 followed by a strong five wave up rallly to 5,200. To confirm that scenario bears … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #trading setup #micro This morning bulls defended the breakout level 4,808: Every time bears fail to break a support, bulls get a strong reason to push higher. The failure to break under the support 4,808 immediately triggered a pop up off the support. As long as bulls hold over 4,808 they will be … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #trading setup #micro Let’s look at a micro 15 min chart: Today bulls overshoot the previous high made in Jan’2022 and made a fresh all time high. That previous high 4,808.25 now turns into a support. As long as bulls hold ES over that level they will be able to push ES higher … Read more
$ES $SPX #ES-mini #futures We continue to patiently wait for signs that this corrective rally in a wave -b- up has topped. This rally should be followed by a quick drop down to 4,500. Such a drop to the Green Box would complete a corrective -a- down, -b- up, -c- down structure and make a … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #trading setup #weekend I currently consider the very bullish Running Flat scenario as the primary one (read explanation here). ES-mini is sitting right under the all-time high made in Jan’22 = 4,808.25: Let’s zoom-in: The first macro support is 4,736. Bears need to break that support to trigger a short “failed breakout” setup. … Read more
$NQ #NQ-mini The micro count of the rally argues NQ might have topped: 16,600 remains the key support now. You can conciser the FOMC rally as an overshot of the price channel. To confirm completion of the rally bears need to break under the lower trendline. Today this support got tested. No wonder they could … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #trading setup Yesterday a member of my chat room asked me if that rally could be a corrective wave (b) up. I do think that it really looks like a corrective squeeze. The rally off the low made in October 2023 lacks an impulsive structure. That move did not produce any pullbacks and … Read more
$ES #ES-mini The FOMC has just published its “dot plot” chart that implies three quarter-point interest rate cuts next year — that is more than economists expected to be in the forecasts. It’s dovish. And ES-mini popped to the July 2023 high. I expect that double top to be followed by a corrective pullback following … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #trading setup Ona Daily chart you can see that bulls keep pushing ESH24 (the March 2024 contract) towards the July 2023 high (4,736): Let’s zoom-in to a 15 min chart: I count the Tuesday rally as the final subwave c of a micro wave v of -c- of -i- up: I continue to … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #trading setup ES-mini keeps pushing higher moving along our bullish scenario. The Bullish scenario considers the November rally as the subwave -c- of wave -i- up: Bulls keep pushing ES-mii towards the high made in July’23: Let’s zoom-in to a 30 min micro chart: ES-mini has hit a 100% ext of the subwave … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #weekend Please note that I have switched to ESH24 , the March 24 contract of ES-mini futures: This is the scenario bulls are watching. They believe that Jan 22 top was the wave 3 up, and the Oct’22 low was the bottom of a corrective wave 4 down. That wave count argues that … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #failed breakout Yesterday I shared a path and ES has been nicely following it: We got an emotional drop pre market triggered by the labor data: Note that spike to 4,560 that got bought out. Yesterday I noted: “Tomorrow we may get a volatile day resulted from labor data to be released at … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #trading setup This is the ideal scenario for Friday – Monday: The key resistance is 4,607.75. That is the Monthly resistance for December. What bears need is a fake breakout setup. The most important rule of a contrarian trader is “Strong moves result from failed moves.” Tomorrow we may get a volatile day … Read more
#greed index #a-b-c flat consolidation #long setup check The morning Update – 11-29 AM EST below. $SVIX has a picture perfect long setup: SVIX produced a corrective looking a-b-c move down that looks having bottomed OVER the main support. ES-mini has even a better picture: Note the res -a-b-c- over down that stopped OVER the … Read more
$NQ #NQ #micro #short setup On a daily chart you can see that a drop to 15,600 would complete the subwave -a- down: On a micro level you can see that bears are sitting on a micro short i down, ii up setup: If bears stop this bounce at or under 15,920 we should get … Read more
$NQ #NQ-mini #trading setup The Daily chart looks bullish. It shows a clean path for bulls to re-test the high made in Nov 2021 at 16,767: This wave count considers the rally off the Oct’22 low as a five wave up rally of the subwave (A) of wave (5) up. Let’s zoom in a 120 … Read more
$NQ #NQ-mini #trading setup Bulls need to break over 16,010 to start the final micro leg up: However, keep an eye on the immediate support 15,860. Break under 15,860 would confirm that NQ made some top and started a large corrective pullback.
$ES #ES-mini #Elliott Wave #trading setup The previous update correctly predicted an upcoming rally. We keep watching two very different macro scenarios. They have very different expectations for 2024 but both argue for an upcoming move down in the 1Q 2024. Let’s start with the Very Bullish macro scenario: Under the Very Bullish scenario ES … Read more
$ES #ES #trading setup #bulls trap The macro bullish count argues for ES-mini to top somewhere around 4,660 after kissing that red trend line. Its safe to predict that they will play a fake breakout over that red trend line to suck in retail at the top: On a micro 15 min chart we can … Read more
$NQ #NQ-mini #trading setup 15 min chart of NQ-mini futures looks very bullish: In the yellow box you can see a clean corrective -w-x-y- down structure that looks complete. The straightforward way to count is is the wave iii up followed by a corrective wave iv down that looks 100% completed. Bulls have a nice … Read more
$ES $SVIX #trading setup ES-mini looks having completed a corrective consolidation in the wave -iv- down and looks ready to start another rally in the wave -v- up: The ideal target for the wave -v- up = 4,639. SVIX, the “greed index” has a very similar wave count: That long setup in ES-mini will be … Read more
$SVIX $ES #toppong #Expanding Triangle #Megaphone This is how the macro bullish scenario looks like: Even that bullish scenario argues for an upcoming rejection of that rally off the red trend line. The bearish alternative scenario argues for even bigger decline: In the past I used to watch wave counts on VXX, an ETF that … Read more
$ES $SPX #Head and Shoulders #toppying Today was the worst day for trading in 2023. Look at that miniscule daily candle we got on the S&P 500 cash index chart: On Friday we got the lowest daily trading volume for the last 12 months. Look at several weeks surrounding Thanksgiving 2022: The same drop in … Read more
$ES #ES #Macro #Trading Setup Let’s first look at the daily chart of S&P cash index: The last three trading days have been small doji candles. That is contraction in volatility. Most likely it will be followed by expansion in volatility. Now note well established down trend in daily volume. This rally kept pushing up … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #trading setup I think this rally will eventually extend up to 4,687 – 4,717: But I do not expect ES-mini to get there in a direct way. Ideal target for the wave -iii- up is 4,639. At the very least I would like it to tag 4,609. Therefore, the blue path allows bulls … Read more
$NQ #NQ-mini #trading setup This is the micro path I am watching: I think Bulls should be able to push higher at least one more time. Bulls can push higher to tag the target, the lower edge of the Red Box = 16,260. Potentially the rally may extend to the ideal target = 16,395 (the … Read more
$ES $SPX $VIX #corrective a-b-c up pullback The US stock market will be closed on Thursday. This week has been the textbook pre-holiday calm week. On Monday ES-mini hit the first target/resistance = 4,561. Today ES-mini produced a very shallow pullback off that resistance down to the first support at the breakout level = 4,542. … Read more
$ES #ES #trading setup Bulls keep pushing ES-mini towards the main resistance, a red trend line that connects previous highs. We keep watching two different macro scenarios: (1) the bearish “triangle” … and the (2) the Bullish “breakout” scenario: In both cases I expect to see bearish reaction to the test of the red trend … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #trading setup #triangle The only macro scenario that looks relatively reasonable for me is based on the assumption that since the top made in Jan’22 ES/SPX have been consolidating in a triangle shaped pattern: Under that scenario ES/SPX can continue the torture of directionless moves for another two years bouncing back and forth … Read more
$NQ #NQ #trading futures #day trading This chart can be named “the thrill is gone”: Bulls built a base and then nothing came out of that base. Now let’s go micro and look at the 9 min chart: You can see signals produce by my proprietary indicator called the Cloud Trader. Bears have a 75% … Read more
$ES #ES #trading setup #OPEX I keep two options on the table. The bearish scenario is still alive: The nearest support is 4,430. ES Daily resistance for Friday 4,536.75. ES Daily support for Friday 4,510.75. On Thurdsay bears failed to produce any donward pressure. Moreover, bulls managed to push ES over the Daily resistance 4,524.25 … Read more
$NQ #NQ #trading setup NQ-mini futures looks having completed a five wave up structure off the Oct’23 low: 15,850 remains the key support. Break under 15,850 would open the door for at east a corrective a-b-c down move with two targets:
$NQ #NQ #trading setup I did not expect that rally to climb that high. The strength of that rally annihilated bearish scenarios I favored. This is the only bullish scenario we are left with: This rally could only be counted as a subwave (a) of wave ( v ) up. The subwave (a) of wave … Read more
$ES #ES #trading setup That spike completes the five wave up structure off the low made in late Oct’23: ES-mini Daily resistance for Tuesday is 4,435. Bears need to push ES-mini back under that level to confirm completion of the rally
$ES #ES #Macro The macro wave count / scenario we discussed on Sunday argues that bulls would be able to push ES-mini to 4,450 – 4,460 to complete the subwave (c) of a corrective wave ( ii ) up. we have had the Expanding Flat structure right into the resistance red band 4,400 – 4,415. … Read more
$ES #ES #Macro #Expanded Flat On November 8, 2023 I Outlined three paths: This is what I wrote about the purple path: The purple path: Bulls can push ES up to 4,450 – 4,460 violate the previous high made in early Oct’23 (4,430) and trigger forced short covering that would propel ES by 20-30 points higher. … Read more
$ES #ES #trading setup Yesterday I shared an unfolding head and shoulders bearish reversal pattern. That pattern argues for a bounce off the neckline: Thi sis how that chart look slike now: We got a nice a-b-c up bounce in what I count as a corrective subwave -b- up. That bounce sets the stage for … Read more
$ES #ES-mini ES-mini got rejected off that same Red Band 4,400-4,415: This is how ES -mini looks like after the rejection today: That chart looks exactly like the famous Wyckoff Distribution pattern: Ideally I would like ES to come back up to the Red Box to complete the Right Shoulder (4,385 – 4,390 – 4,395). … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #trading setup #Elliott Wave Yesterday I showed the purple max pain scenario that allowed bulls to produce a fake breakout over the resistance band 4,400-4,415: I noted yesterday: The purple path: Bulls can push ES up to 4,450 – 4,460 violate the previous high made in early Oct’23 (4,430) and trigger forced short covering … Read more