$ES #ES-mini #trading setup #triangle
The only macro scenario that looks relatively reasonable for me is based on the assumption that since the top made in Jan’22 ES/SPX have been consolidating in a triangle shaped pattern:
Under that scenario ES/SPX can continue the torture of directionless moves for another two years bouncing back and forth in between of two converging trendlines.
That macro triangle scenario is valid as long, as bears hold ES under the July 2023 high made at 4,684.
If bulls manage to break over 4,684 high that would mean the price is in the strongest part of the rally, subwave C of wave 3 up.
A Low Probability: Very Bullish scenario:
I hate this scenario and I do not like subdivision of the wave ( 4 ) down. And I do not like the subdivision of the subwave (b) down of wave ( iii ) up. However, a break over the red trend line would confirm that very bullish scenario,
Under that super bullish count the subwave (c) of wave ( iii ) up should have a clean five wave up micro structure. The Nov’23 rally can be a micro wave -i- up. But ES needs a micro corrective wave -ii- down before it can break over the red trend line under that very bullish scenario.
Bulls failed to break over daily resistance for two days in a row.
On Thursday the Daily resistance was 4,525.
On Friday the daily resistance was 4,527.50.
Those failures of bulls to break out is a strong sign of weakness and an opportunity for bears.
The Daily Resistance for Sunday and Monday is 4,526.25.
The Daily support is 4,501.75.
December is normally a strong month during pre-election years: