$ES $SVIX #trading setup
ES-mini looks having completed a corrective consolidation in the wave -iv- down and looks ready to start another rally in the wave -v- up:
The ideal target for the wave -v- up = 4,639.
SVIX, the “greed index” has a very similar wave count:
That long setup in ES-mini will be valid as long as bulls hold ES-mini over support 4,552 and hold SVIX over 33.93.
If we zoom out to a daily chart you will see that the potential remaining upside is pretty small in comparison to the size of the November rally:
Even the bullish scenario argues for a pullback first down to 4,450 and then down to 4,400. To keep the bullish scenario alive bulls will have to defend 4,400 support.
Again, I count that rally as a micro wave -i- up that is supposed to be followed by an a-b-c- pullback in a wave -ii- down.
A break under 4,400 would make the alternative bearish wave count a feasible scenario: