$ES #ES-mini #failed breakout
Yesterday I shared a path and ES has been nicely following it:
We got an emotional drop pre market triggered by the labor data:
Note that spike to 4,560 that got bought out.
Yesterday I noted:
“Tomorrow we may get a volatile day resulted from labor data to be released at 8-30 AM EST.
We can get the first move down into the green box.
If bulls manage to stop that drop over 4,560 bulls will secure a great long setup for the final exhaustive spike higher in the subwave -c -of wave -v- up.
The minimum target is 4,629. But the spike up can extend to 4,640.”
For the Dec’23 contract there is a strong confluence of fibs at 4,626 – 4,629. This is a strong resistance where this rally may top.
Let’s switch to the March 2024 contract (ESH24):
The ideal scenario is we get another micro push higher to 4,680 on the March 2024 contract and then bears step in, turn it down and push back under 4,657 (March’24 contract).
That would close the bulls’ trap and trigger a strong move down driven by forced liquidation of long positions.
The big picture on the daily chart is unchanged:
You can see why bulls have a problem here, they hit the Red trend line and so far have been struggling to get over. On a micro chart I showed that ideally I want bulls to make another try and get over that red line albeit not for a long.
Based on the daily chart you can see that I envision a bearish pullback starting from this area either bulls make one or two MICRO pushes up or ES rolls over from here.