$ES #ES-mini #trading setup #trading futures ES-mini kissed the Green Demand zone today. We can count the move down as a completed w-x-y corrective structure. Bulls have a long setup here to start another leg up targeting the Red Box: To confirm that setup the first task for bulls is to reclaim the broken 4,998 … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #tradig setup #trading futures #flat a-b-c consolidation Bulls keep pushing ES-mini futures higher along our “Very Bullish” Wave Count: Under the micro bullish scenario bulls can push higher in a micro wave c of v of -c- of -iii- of ( c ) of ( iii) up. Let’s zoom in: We can consider … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #trading setup In my Sunday report I concluded: “If bears fail to break under 5,000 then we can get two more extensions, first to 5,105 – 5,125. and then, after a pullback in a wave -iv- down back to 5,040 – 5,020, another leg up to 5,195-5,215.” This the bullish path I posted … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #trading setup Ideally I would like bears to start another push down in a subwave -c- targeting the Green box: In a similar way, NQ-mini has a setup for a drop in a subwave -c- down to the neckline 17,221:
$NQ #NQ #trading setup Yesterday I shared the Less Bullish scenario that argued that NQ made an important top. This is how that wave count looks after Tuesday decline: Bears need to undercut that micro 17,221 support to confirm that NQ made an important top. Any big bearish reversal normally follows the textbook Head and … Read more
$NQ #NQ-mini #trading setup Let’s update two most probable macro scenarios: (1) Less Bullish scenario: Under the Less Bullish scenario NQ either has topped or about to top in a five wave up rally off the Oct 2022 low. Under that wave count that rally should be followed by a large flat (a) down, (b) … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #trading setup In my previous updates (here and here) I made a bullish case for a rally that should hit 5,040-5,050 target. That target was hit on Friday. Let’s review two bullish macro scenarios. (1) The Very Bullish scenario: ES has broken out of the upward channel. That makes the less bullish low … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #trading setup In the previous update we correctly predicted this rally and noted a clean bullish triangle setup: ES-mini is approaching the lower edge of the Red Target box. We have the perfect confluence of two super strong fibs: That is the ideal spot for a wave -v- up to top. If bears … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #triangle We can consider ES-mini as having consolidated in a triangle-shaped consolidation: Above I show you a conservative bullish scenario where bulls will not be able to get over 5,040. On Tuesday ES consolidated in a narrow range accumulating energy for a breakout of that triangle shaped consolidation: In majority of cases a … Read more
$ES $NQ The morning drop was bought out again: I keep repeating that the cornerstone law of the bullish trend is that price stays 90% of the time over resistance. My proprietary Cycle Trader indicator for TradingView calculates Daily and Weekly Support and Resistance. This morning ES-mini dropped under the Daily resistance 4,963 but bulls … Read more
$SPX #S&P Two weeks ago we discussed two different path for S&P to climb over 5,000. Last week bears failed again to follow the short term bearish scenario. Bulls may keep pushing S&P higher along the “straightforward path” scenario posted on Jan 21, 2024. This is how that chart looks like now: You can open … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #tradingfutures #Elliott Wave In the previous update I showed three potential paths for a bearish pullback: As I noted, “the first support is located at 4,800 – 4,750. Under the most bullish scenario this is where the upcoming pullback may bottom.” This is how that chart looks like now: Under the (2) The Most … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #trading setup In my previous update I noted: !! Note that ES-mini has not tagged the strongest resistance for a subwave -b- up, 4,947, a negative 138.2% ext of the preceding pullback, the July – Oct 2023 move down yet. Therefore, bulls can make a slightly higher high to hit that level before … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #trading-futures Lets update two major macro scenarios we have been watching and also have a look at less probable but the most exciting one. All scenarios are long-term bullish but all argue for an upcoming pullback. (1) The Running Flat scenario: Let’s zoom-in: Under the Running Flat scneario, the Dec’23 – Jan’24 rally … Read more
$ES #ES #trading futures In my yesterday’s update I discussed the Running Flat scenario: Under the Running Flat scenario the key resistance is a negative -138.2% ext of the July – Oct 2023 decline = 4,947. If bears manage to stop the rally at this level they will get a setup for a drop down … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #trading futures We still do not have clarity if the January 2024 rally is a corrective wave -b- up or teh second leg up in a subwave ( c ) of wave ( iii ) up. Let’s start from the first scenario where this rally is a subwave -b- up of the wave … Read more
$NQ #NQ #trading setup This morning spike up can be the final squiggle of the five wave up rally off the low made in Oct’22: That is the most bearish scenario where we can get a large (a) down, (b) up, (c) down consolidation in the subwave B down of wave 5 up: NQ-mini made … Read more
$NDX #Nasdaq-100 #Macro Forecast #Weekly This is a macro wave count of NDX Cash Index (Nasdaq-100): We can count the rally off the major low made 2002 as an unfolding five wave up structure: Under that macro bullish wave count the Nov’21 top was 3 of ( C ) of ( 3 ) and the … Read more
$SPX #SPX #S&P500 #Macro #Weekly The huge A down, B up, C down structure that played out in between of 2000 and 2009 looks like a textbook (B) down of a wave ( 3 ) up: Under that wave count there should be a very strong parabolic looking rally in a subwave ( C ) … Read more
$NQ #NQ-mini #trading setup In the previous update I noted: “The ideal target for the Oct’23 – Dec’23 rally is a negative 138.25 ext of the decline off the July’23 high into Oct’23 low. That ideal target is 17,323. It has not been tagged yet.” NQ futures finally approached that level 17,323. I would count … Read more
$NQ #NQ #trading futures #trading setup Over the weekend I posted a macro analysis of Nasdaq Composite index. The Nasdaq-100 is frequently confused with the Nasdaq Composite Index. The Nasdaq Composite index (often referred to simply as “The Nasdaq”) includes the stock of every company that is listed on Nasdaq (more than 3,000 altogether). The … Read more
$SPX #Yearly Opening Range #Yearly #Macro #Weekend Let me start from explanation what the Yearly Opening Range is. You may have read my explanation about a Month Opening Range strategy here. The very same principle can be applied on a higher timeframe: On the chart above you can see the Yearly Opening Range formed during … Read more
$ES #Weekend #Daily I continue counting the December 2023 rally as a subwave -b- up inside a corrective -a- down, -b- up, -c- down structure shaped as a tricky Running Flat structure: Inside a corrective structure Running Flat the final leg down in a subwave -c- down makes a higher high in comparison to the … Read more
$COMPX #Weekend #Weekly The Nasdaq-100 is frequently confused with the Nasdaq Composite Index. The Nasdaq Composite index (often referred to simply as “The Nasdaq”) includes the stock of every company that is listed on Nasdaq (more than 3,000 altogether). The Nasdaq-100 is a modified capitalization-weighted index. The top made in Nov 2021 could be the … Read more
$ES #ES #Month Opening Range #Elliott Wave #trading setup Today ES-futures broke over the Monthly Resistance 4,797.50: When price breaks over the high made during the first three trading days of a month that opens the door for a trending move up that can keep going until the mid month. That move up follows the … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #trading setup #trading futures #Elliott Wave On Thursday last week I posted that path: ES-mini perfectly followed the path, first dropped into the Green Demand zone and then popped up to 4,800. This is how that chart looks like now: Interestingly, the sharp drop on Dec 21 was equal in size to that … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #trading setup On Friday update I noted: “If bulls manage to reclaim the monthly support 4,727 we can see a quick rally pushing price back up to the Monthly Resistance 4,828.” This is the Month Opening range strategy at its best: The trading range of the first three full trading days created important … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #trading setup #trading futures The big picture is the Nov – Dec 2023 rally was a corrective subwave -b- up that managed to make a higher high. The strength of that rally makes me think we have been dealing with a very bullish Running Flat structure. In the Running flat corrective structure a … Read more
#ES $ES #trading setup #failed breakout We have been watching that same wave count and expecting ES-mini to drop back under the key 4,736 support level for weeks: Today ES finally breached the key support 4,736. I called that level as the key support because it used to be an important top made in July … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #first decline #re-accumulation On Dec 29th I shared the pattern of a re-accumulation: Back then I noted similarity to then current chart of ES-mini and based on that fractal forecasted an upcoming decline to 4,757-4,737 demand zone: Today Es-mini dropped to 4,737: If bulls defend the fat green zone 4,757- 4,737 then will … Read more
$ES #ES #trading setup #Head and Shoulders ES-mini futures keep leaking down in a five wave down structure off the last high made at 4,841.50: Yesterday I noted: “The target for the subwave c of wave iii down is 4,767”. ES-mini has hit that target. The wave v down should be able to test 4,751 … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #trading setup ES-mini keeps moving down in a five wave down structure. The target for that overnight decline in a subwave c of wave iii down is 4,767: The wave v down should be able to test 4,751 with potential extension down to 4,741. A drop to 4,741 (in the course of the … Read more
$SPX $S&P 500 #trading #fractal analysis This is my macro forecast for the first half of 2024: I found a very similar fractal that may be in play: Look at the structure of the rally off the October 2011. Note in 2012 year S&P topped 256 trading days after the Oct 2011 low. Now let’s … Read more
$ES #ES #trading setup #toppying We keep waiting for ES-mini futures to roll over: 4,757 – 4,738 is the crucial support because if bears fail to break under that level we will get a re-accumulation pattern based on the Inverse Head and Shoulders: Note three successive higher highs and the sharp drop after the second … Read more
$SPX #SPX #Cycle Analysis We can identify a 35 year cycle from 1974 low to 2009 low: There was a strong drop in 1987, 13 years into the cycle. If we assume that the same fractal 1974 – 2009 can be applied to the current cycle, the Covid drop in 2019 looked similar to the … Read more
#NQ $NQ #trading setup NQ-mini has hit the red target box and is ready to roll over: The target 1 for the decline is 16,760. The target 2 is 16,400.
$NQ #NQ-mini #trading setup Nq-mini futures have been following the five wave up structure in this rally. The sharp drop last week was a completion of a corrective wave iv down shaped as the Running Flat corrective structure: If we apply a negative 138.2% ext to that drop we will get the target at 17,190. … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #trading setup #Heand and Shoulders #breakout Bears still sit on a bearish Head and Shoulders setup: That Head and Shoulders setup is capable of delivering a 100 point drop in a wave -c- down. However we should keep in mind a Plan B that can be triggered by invalidation of the bearish H&S … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #trading setup #Head and Shoulders Yesterday we discussed two targets for a bounce: This morning Es-mini hit the target 2 and the main resistance for the Right Shoulder. We got a clean three wave up corrective bounce in a corrective wave -b- up. Bears need to push ES under 4,785 to confirm ES … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #trading setup #Elliott Wave #Head and Shoulders Yesterday I shared the bearish reversal Head and Shoulders bearish reversal setup: We outlined two resistance levels in the Wednesday report. Bulls failed at resistance 1 = 4,789 in the morning. But they can test the resistance 2 = 4,808, the Jan’22 high to build a … Read more