$NQ: At The Crossroads

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$NQ #NQ-mini #trading setup

Let’s update two most probable macro scenarios:

(1) Less Bullish scenario:

NQ-Daily chart

Under the Less Bullish scenario NQ either has topped or about to top in a five wave up rally off the Oct 2022 low. Under that wave count that rally should be followed by a large flat (a) down, (b) up, (c) down consolidation that could test a 50% or even 66.7% retracement of that rally.

To solidly confirm that scenario and invalidate that Very Bullish scenario bears need to violate 16,689 level.

(2) Very Bullish scenario:

NQ-mini Daily chart

Under the very bullish micro bulls should be able to keep pushing NQ higher with very small and short lived pullbacks.

Let’s zoom-in:

NQ-mini Daily chart

To solidly invalidate that Very Bullish scenario bears need to violate 16,689 level.

Until that happens we should consider the Very Bullish scenario as our primary one.

The Daily support for Tuesday is 17,863.

We should expect heighted volatility after release of the core CPI data at 8-30 AM EST on Tuesday.

Break under the daily support would be the first argument in favor of the less bullish scenario (1).

The Daily Resistance for Tuesday is 18,071. A break over that level would be an argument in favor of the Very Bullish scenario.

The ideal “pump-n-dump” or “failed breakout” scenario for bears for tomorrow is a spike over 18,071 that gets faded and then a drop under the support 17,863.

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