$ES #ES-mini #trading setup
In my Sunday report I concluded: “If bears fail to break under 5,000 then we can get two more extensions, first to 5,105 – 5,125. and then, after a pullback in a wave -iv- down back to 5,040 – 5,020, another leg up to 5,195-5,215.” This the bullish path I posted back then.
The sharp drop at the beginning of the week got quickly erased.
Here bulls confidently hold ES-mini over daily resistance.
Note that bears’ attempt to break under the red trend line seems having failed. Aa long as bulls manage to keep price over the red trendline price will be in an accelerated breakout mode. Let’s update the bullish micro path that leads to the main target 5,180-5,195:
That wave count argues that ES has not completed the subwave (c) of wave ( iii ) up, the strongest part of the rally off the Oct 2023 low. Moreover, it is possible that is has not even completed a micro wave -iii- of ( c ) of ( iii). The ideal target for a top of wave -iii- would be 5,115 – 5,120.
Yesterday I shared a short term bearish scenario where ES and NQ could revisit the lows made at the beginning of this week:
And bears still have that micro short setup. The Tuesday drop was an impulsive five wave down and hence it could be a subwave -a- down, followed by a three wave bounce in a wave -b- up that could be followed by another leg down in a subwave -c-. If we got another leg down in a subwave -c- that would complete a flat -a-b-c- down consolidation, a solid base for another push higher.
But please remember that we deal with a strong up trending market that keeps holding over resistance. While we are in an up trending market, price keeps climbing 80-90% of the time with quick drops that make higher lows and spend only 10%-20% of the week.
The key level of support for Friday is 5,022.
Bears need to break that support to make that micro bearish count a feasible scenario.
Until bears manage to break under that micro support up will remain the path of the least resistance.