$SPX: We May Replay 2011 – 2012 Fractal

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$SPX $S&P 500 #trading #fractal analysis

This is my macro forecast for the first half of 2024:

ES-mini Daily chart

I found a very similar fractal that may be in play:

S&P 500, Daily chart, 2011 – 2012

Look at the structure of the rally off the October 2011. Note in 2012 year S&P topped 256 trading days after the Oct 2011 low.

Now let’s look at the structure of the rally off the Oct’2022 low:

S&P 500 Daily chart, 2022 – 2023

Interestingly, SPX closed the 2023 year at the high standing 258 trading days past the Oct’22 low.

According to that fractal, S&P can decline making a fresh 80 day lower low.

The pullback in 2012 retraced 66.6% of the rally price wise and took 61.8% of time consumed by the preceding leg up. If SPX follows the same ratios we can get a pullback down to 4,341 into early Feb’24.

However, I will be watching a 50% retracement in price currently standing at 4,460. That would be a very attractive entry point for long positions to ride the next strong leg up.

Please note S&P has only been up 47% of times in January over the last 15 years, and that’s the lowest odds of every other month of the year.

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