#tradingsetup #Elliott Wave $ES #ES-mini There are two important resistance lines – 5,871.50 and (6,000.50 – 6,011.50): Es-mini Daily chart 5,871 level turned into a battleground between bulls and bears. If bulls fail to climb over the resistance 5,871.50 we can expect a drop down to the support 2 = 5,730.50: ES-mini 30 min chart … Read more
#NQ $NQ #Elliott Wave #trading setup #Elliott wave Bears miserably failed to start a leg down off after rejection off the lower edge of the Red Box: NQ-mini Daily chart That failure, as always, inspired bulls for a new push higher. Let’s zoom in to a micro 60 min chart: NQ-mini 60 min chart Even … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #Elliott Wave #price levels #trading setup Price tests the 5,871.50 key resistance once again: ES-mini 15 min chart If bulls manage to break over that level bulls will get a decent setup for a rally up to the next strong resistance at 6,000. If, in contrast, bears manage to defend the resistance 5,871.50 … Read more
$SPX #S&P500 #trading setup #Elliott Wave Bears have a setup to turn NQ-mini down here: NQ-mini Daily chart Note that NQ- mini failed to make a higher high in comparison to the July’24 high. That is a sign of weakness. That means NQ would most likely underperform S&P in case the bearish pullback. This is … Read more
$NQ #NQ #trading setup #Elliott wave I maintain my short term bearish view on Nasdaq: NQ-mini Daily chart It tagged the Red Box. I count that move up as a corrective wae -b- up that can be followed by a quick drop down in the wave -c- down. The target 1 = 19,600 I explained … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #Elliott Wave #trading setup ES is about to finish a large 2-year long bull run, a five wave up structure off the low made in Oct 2022: ES-mini Daily chart According to that topping wave count ES-mini is in the last segment of the rally, a subwave (c) of wave (v) up. When … Read more
$NQ #NQ #trading setup #Elliott Wave NQ needs to make a new all time high in order to finish a five wave up structure off the rally off the Oct 2023 low (see the Upper Red Box on the chart below): NQ-mini Daily chart The ideal macro target for that final push higher is 22,600. … Read more
$SPX $S&P #Elliott Wave #trading setup SPX has finally hit 5,881.50, a negative 138.2% ext applied to the preceding move down (July – Aug 2024 pullback): S&P 500 Cash Index, 120 min chart Bulls can squeeze one more push higher to hit the upper dark red trendline (around 5,903). But this move up looks 99% … Read more
$SPX #SPX #ES $ES #Elliott Wave #trading setup We can count the rally in S&P 500 cash index as a completed five wave up structure / fractal / pattern: S&P 500 Cash Index 240 min Upon completion of a five wave up rally we always expect a corrective three wave a-b-c- decline down to the … Read more
$NQ #NQ #Elliott Wave #trading setup Today bulls finally tagged the Red Box we have been watching for weeks: NQ-mini Daily chart So far they tested the lower edge of the Red Box, a weak resistance at a negative 123.6% ext = 20,662. A much stronger resistance is located at a negative 138.2% ext = … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #Elliott Wave #trading setup I consider the October rally as a subwave -b- up of a corrective consolidation in a wave (b) down: ES-mini Daily chart Let’s combine the wave analysis with application of the Month Opening Range startegy: ES-mini 30 min chart The market establishes the Month Opening Range during the first … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #Elliott Wave #trading setup ES mini has been in a tight range consolidation for five trading days: ES-mini Daily chart Elliott Wave theory is a powerful tool when we deal with a trending market. In contrast a directionless range bound consolidation allows multiple interpretations. For example, here bears can make a case for … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #Elliott Waves #trading setup Last week ES declined to a well defined support level 5,721-5,711 (the resistance-turned-support): ES-mini 60 min chart Failure to break under that support was followed by an overlapping (sign of weakness) move up that stopped right at the critically important 76.4% retracement fib (5,805). The big picture is that … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #Elliott Wave #trading setup So far bears tested the key support 5,721 twice and miserably failed to break it. That bears’ failure can trigger one more spiky move up to 5,869. ES-mini Daily chart Under that tricky scenario a spike to 5,868 may finally complete the -a-b-c- up structure of a corrective wave … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #key support #crossroads A week ago I posted an update that focused on two levels, a resistance 5,830 and a support 5,721: Back then I noted: …”That fib points to 5,830 as a potential target for that rally in that subwave -b- up. That means as long as bulls hold Es over 5,721 … Read more
$ES #ES $NQ #NQ-mini #Elliott Wave #trading setup I expect ES to make a pullback into mid October or late October to complete the -a- down, -b- up, -c- down consolidation: ES-mini Daily chart I like the same wave count for NQ-mini: NQ-mini Daily The key level of resistance is a negative 138.2% ext of … Read more
$NQ #NQ-mini #Elliott Wave #trading setup I think NQ should extend the rally in the final wave (v) up at least up to 22,600: NQ-mini 60 min chart However, I do not think NQ-mini can keep rallying to the target in a straight line. In this update I will discuss what kind of a pullback … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #Elliott Wave #trading setup In my Sunday update I noted: “A corrective subwave -b- up often tops out at a negative -138.2% ext of the preceding decline in a subwave -a- down. That fib points to 5,830 as a potential target for that rally in that subwave -b- up. That means as long … Read more
Its Wednesday morning but nothing has changed since my Sunday weekend update. The rally looks having run out of steam. Even though it has made a higher high over the Aug’24 high it still can be a corrective subwave -b- up. Under a tricky Running Flat scenario bulls can even tag 5,830 resistance before ES … Read more
$ES #ES #trading setup #Elliott Wave Let’s discuss the short term bearish scenario: Bears need to pish ES down under 5,721, the breakout line to trigger the short failed breakout setup: ES-mini 60 min chart A corrective subwave -b- up often tops out at a negative -138.2% ext of the preceding decline in a subwave … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #Elliott Wave #trading setup 5,721 was a very very strong resistance that now should work as a strong support: ES-mini 60 min chart ES shows bearish reaction to test of the negative -123.6% extension (5,7921.25, a negative -123.6% ext) applied to the the preceding decline labelled -a- down. The -123.6% ext is not … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #Elliott Wave I have been watching that bullish Macro wave count that allowed bulls to test 6,000 level later this year: ES-mini Daily chart The main uncertainty I had and still have about the micro path that can bring bulls up to 6,000. Let me share my way of thoughts. Zooming-in to a … Read more
$ES #ES #Elliott Wave #trading setup Yesterday bears failed to break the Daily resistance 5,607. In an uptrending market a broken daily resistance works as a strong support. Failure of bears to break that support powered yet another strong move up. Overnight bulls pushed ES-mini over the July 2024 top made at 5,721. ES-mini Daily … Read more
$NQ #NQ #Elliott Wave I watch that short term bearish scenario: NQ-mini Daily chart In the bearish case, at the very least I would expect a 76.4%up, 76.4% down type of a setup to play out: NQ-mini daily chart Note that a low made in early Aug 24 was followed by a strong rally retracing … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #Elliott Wave #trading setup I keep tracking two scenarios / paths leading ES up to 6,000. The first scenario is a short term bearish scenario: ES-mini Daily chart The short term bearish scenario considers the rally we got last week as a corrective subwave -b- up to be followed by a sharp decline … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #Elliott Wave I have been tracking two scenarios and both allow bulls to push ES-mini to 6,000. Let’s start from a bullish scenario: ES-mini Daily chart That bullish wave count argues that the final leg up in a subwave (c) of wave (v) up has already started. In majority of cases the subwave … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #trading setup #Elliott Wave We started Tuesday morning with a picture perfect short setup: ES-mini 30 min chart I note for members of my chat room: “5,506 is the key level to watch. What bears need is a spike over 5,506 followed by a brutal reversal and push under that level triggering the … Read more
$ES #ES #trading setup #Elliott Wave Bears have a decent setup for a strong drop in a subwave -c- of wave -y- down: ES-mini 30 min chart Break under support of the upward sloped blue trend line would open the door for a strong drop down to the Green Box that starts at 5,303. 5,506 … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #Elliott Wave #50% retracement On Friday morning bulls had a picture perfect bullish reversal setup. But they failed to start a rally. Failure of a long setup was a very bearish trigger that fueled a bearish breakdown scenario: On Friday I noted: “If bulls fail to break over the Red Supply zone and … Read more
$NQ #NQ-mini#trading futures #Elliott Wave The Aug’24 rally was a weak move because it never even tested the key 76.4% retracement fib. That 76.4% retracement fib is a point of no return. Bulls have to push price over that retracement to significantly reduce possibility that we deal with a corrective bounce in a wave B … Read more
$ES #ES #trading setup #Inverse Head and Shoulders Overnight bears pushed ES-mini into my Green Target box: ES-min 120 min chart On a tick bar chart we can see a picture perfect bullish Inverse Head and Shoulders long setup: ES-mini 20,000 tick bar chart Bulls need to push ES-mini over the Red Supply Zone 5,523-5,528. … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #Elliott Wave #trading setup I consider the September decline as the final leg in a corrective pullback: We can count that drop as eiether a subwave -c- that completes a corrective -a-b-c- down structure or as a subwave -e- of a more complex Expanding Triangle -a-b-c-d-e- down structure: Either we count that September … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #Elliott Wave #trading setup ES-mini dropped to intersection of two trend lines: Overnight bears tested a strong support 5,510. Bulls can count the sharp drop as a subwave c down of a corrective a-b-c down structure of the subwave (b) down of wave (v) up. Let’s zoom in to a 120 min chart: … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #trading setup #Elliott Wave I continue to expect a new leg up to 6,000 upon completion of that consolidation: One more push up in subwave (c) of wave (v) up to the Red Target box may make a multi year top. On a 30 min chart we can see a messy flat consolidation … Read more
$ES #ES $NQ #NQ #trading setup #Elliott Wave The Thursday morning rally stopped where two previous swings stopped. And that is good news. This is how a subwave -a- of wave -v- normally behaves. If bears manage to push ES under the afternoon low made at 5,598 I will have to question that bullish scenario. … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #trading setup #Elliott Wave In my evening update yesterday I noted that the drop can be counted as the final subwave -e- down that normally creates a bears’ trap that once closed provides fuel for a strong short covering rally: The idea behind that bears’ trap / failed breakdown setup is simple. Note … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #trading setup #Elliott Wave In my Monday update I shared a path that allowed bears to push ES-mini down to 5,578: Today ES-mini dropped down to the Green Demand zone: That drop may be counted as the final subwave -e- down that finishes a corrective wave -iv- down shaped as the Expanding Triangle … Read more
$NQ #NQ-mini #Elliott Wave The key idea is that the rally in subwave (a) of wave (v) has not topped yet: It needs one or even two pushes up at least to 20,400. Let’s zoom-in to 30 min chart: That is a classic case showing how two slightly different wave counts are possible. The market … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #Elliott Wave #trading setup Bulls had a simple direct path to re-test the July 2024 all time high but they failed to take advantage of that. Let’s first update the big picture: The big picture on the Daily chart remains unchanged, I count the August rally as a subwave (a) of wave (v) … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #Elliott Waves #trading setup Bulls keep pushing ES-mini up following the path I shared on Aug 16: This is how that Daily chart looks like now: I consider the move up off the major Oct 2022 low as an unfolding five wave up structure. So Far ES-mini completed only the wave (iii) up. … Read more