$ES #ES-mini #Elliott Wave
I have been watching that bullish Macro wave count that allowed bulls to test 6,000 level later this year:
ES-mini Daily chart
The main uncertainty I had and still have about the micro path that can bring bulls up to 6,000.
Let me share my way of thoughts.
Zooming-in to a 60 min chart:
ES-mini 60 min chart
We can count the rally that topped in late Aug’24 as the subwave (a) of wave (v) up.
Upon completion of the subwave (a) of wave (v) up we should expect a corrective a-b-c down pullback in a subwave (b) down.
ES-mini 30 min chart
So in the most bullish case that a-b-c- move down that bottomed at 5,455 in early September could be counted as a subwave (b) down of wave (v) up.
Under that very bullish case this rally is a subwave (c) up and it has a room to go higher up to 6,000.
Now I will share my doubt about that very bullish scenario. I have a question about a micro structure of this rally. So the textbook rule is that a subwave (c) of wave (v) up normally has a clean five wave up structure.
But this rally off the last low made on Sep 8 actually has already made five micro waves up:
So we got a small five wave up structure. But the subwave (c) of wave (v) up should go much higher, at least to 6,000.
That observation makes me look for an alternative explanation of that move up. Quite often a corrective subwave b up mimicks the legacy five wave up structure. That makes me consider a wave count where this move up is a subwave -b- up of subwave (b) down:
ES-mini 60 min chart
That rally could be yet another tricky bullish Running Flat corrective structure where a subwave -b- up manages to make a higher high and the following drop in a subwave -c- down makes a higher low.
But again, but scenarios argue for bulls to push ES-mini at least to 6,000 later until the year end.