$AAPL #TOP #a-b-c down AAPL looks having topped in its rally from the 2009 low. So, what should we expect next if the stock made a major top? I would anticipate a significant A down – B up – C down pullback, potentially down to the 130 level, which could unfold over several months or … Read more
$NQ #NQ-mini 21,428 is the 50% retracement of the overnight Monday drop. That 50% retracement fib is now a critical resistance point. This level often plays a pivotal role in a classic continuation pattern called “half-n-go,” a setup favored by traders in the past. Here’s how it works: If bulls fail to break above the … Read more
$NQ #NQ-mini NQ bounced up to a 50% retracement of the overnight drop: NQ-mini 15 min chart That is teh key resistance for bears to defend. If bears manage to stop NQ at 21,430 that failure of bulls should trigger another wave of selling.
$ES #ES-mini #Elliott Wave #trading setup Lets look first at a bullish scenario: $ES dropped down to support of the Green Box: ES-mini 480 min chart We expected a drop into the Green Box and we got that drop. That wave count allows bulls to start the final leg up in a subwave (c) of … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #Elliott Wave #trading setup ES-480 min chart ES mini opened with a gap down diving under the key support 6,123.50. That drop sets up the textbook ‘failed breakout’ short setup. The subwave (a) up briefly broke above the Nov 24 high at 6,123.50, but bears quickly regained control, pushing the price back below … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #trading setup That is pivotal moment of the day. ES came back down to the breakout 6,123.50 level. If bears manage to push it down and break under that support we should get nice bearish follow through in a wave (b) down next week. ES-mini 8 hour chart In contrast, if bears fail … Read more
$NQ #NQ-mini #trading setup #Elliott Wave That move up really looks like a subwave -c- of wave (b) up: NQ-mini Daily chart That wave count allows bears to produce a scary spiky drop down to 20,166, a 50% retracement of the preceding (a)-(b)-(c) move up that bulls consider a wave (i) up.
$NDX $NQ Futures and the underlying cash index often display noticeably different wave structures. The primary reason is that indices are calculated based on regular trading hours, whereas futures trade around the clock and include additional data from overnight sessions. It’s not always possible to determine which wave count holds greater significance. However, it’s valuable … Read more
$ES #ES-mii #ElliottWave #trading setup The alternative bullish scenario allows bulls to make a new all time high in a micro wave (v) up: ES-mini 8 hour chart The rally extended overnight and hit 6,125, retesting the high made in mid Nov’2024. Bearish scenario: Bears still can count that structureless short covering rally as a … Read more
#NQ #ElliottWave #tradingsetup I keep watching two paths: Ultra Bullish vs the Bearish one. We got a micro a-b-c move down that bulls can consider a micro wave (ii) down. That allows bulls to start a strong rally in a micro wave (iii) up: NQ-mini Daily chart Bears can consider the mid Dec’24 high as … Read more
$BTC $BTCUSD #ElliottWave If we zoom out, we can observe significant risks suggesting that Bitcoin might be forming an important top at this stage. We can identify a five-wave structure originating from the major low in October 2022. The critical question now is whether the recent rally from the August 2023 low represents: ⚠️ If … Read more
$ES #NQ Let me show you how we can count the rally off the major Oct’2022 low in two different ways. Let’s start from an alternative Ultra Bullish wave count: You get five wave up rally (see the first blue line).Then you get a textbook red (a) down, (b) up, (c) down structure of a … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #Elliott Wave #trading setup Bears are still very much in control even after that strong short covering rally we got on Wednesday: ES-mini Daily chart Note one super important thing, the rally stopped right at a 76.4% extension of the subwave -a- up: ES-mini Daily Note the lower edge of the Red Supply … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #Elliott wave This morning the core CPI numbers came out unexpectedly cooler than expected. Bulls got a gift from trading gods. As a result we got a huge spike up in ES-mini: ES-mini That spike up can be completing a subwave -a- up of a corrective -a- up, -b- down, -c- up structure. … Read more
$NQ #NQ #trading setup #Elliott Wave #a-b-c bounce Two paths I will be watching for a corrective a-b-c- up bounce off the Monday low: NQ-mini 120 min chart Watching for Corrective Bounce Scenarios:Two potential paths to monitor involve a corrective -a-b-c- up bounce from the Monday low. This bounce is expected to be a temporary … Read more
$ES #ES-mini Yesterday Es dropped as expected but did not hit the target 2 = 5,973.50. Then we got a wild full moon day intraday reversal. Es-mini 120 min chart The 5,793.50 level is a very important level of support because that is the critical support that has to be violated to confirm that the … Read more
$ES #ES-mini Bears keep pushing ES-mini down as we expected. ES-mini 120 min chart Our micro target 2 is located at 5,794.50. Notice how bears often undershoot key support levels before a reversal: Take a look at how they aggressively crashed through the micro target 1 support, only to bounce back above it 16 hours … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #Elliott Wave #trading setup ES-mini keeps moving down along our bearish path. Finally bears managed to break the key support 5,925 and opened the door for test of the next important support at 5,795. ES-mini 8 hour chart now the key micro resistance is 5,933. If we see a bounce to that level … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #Elliott Wave #trading setup Note that bulls produced a micro a-b-c up bounce off the meaningful resistance 5,925. ES-mini 10 min chart Here ES is testing the Red Box, a resistance for that micro consolidation. If bulls fail here at the lower edge of the Red Box the next leg down should break … Read more
#Es-mini #Elliott Wave #trading setup We successfully identified the major top made at the beginning of December 2025. Following this top, ES-mini dropped sharply, hitting Micro Target 1 = 5,925, as anticipated. ES-mini 480 min chart After reaching the micro target 1 / support 1 level 5,925, the market entered a corrective -a-b-c up consolidation, … Read more
$ES #ES-mini The first leg down off a potential TOP bottomed in mid Dec’2024. Off that low we got a corrective -a- up, -b- down, -c- up pullback that I count as a wave (b) up: ES-mini 15 min chart Break under 6,007 would confirm that bearish scenario. Follow me on TradingView and read my … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #Elliott Wave #trading setup In Mid December 2024 I shared a bearish scenario that argued that ES-mini made a lasting top. That chart showed a number of level of support that were supposed to get tested in the coming months. ES-mini 8 hour chart ES-mini hit the micro target 1. Since then ES-mini … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #Head and Shoulders #Bearish reversal .The macro bearish reversal Head and Shoulders scenario keeps working. ES-mini 8 hr chart This leg down is approaching the key support, the neckline of the large H&S bearish reversal pattern. Break under 5,925 would trigger that bearish setup. Break under the neckline 5,925 would open the door … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #Elliott Wave #trading setup #Elliott wave I can remind you about two main macro scenarios we have been tracking. Let’s start from teh alternative low probability Bullish scenario: ES-mini 8 hour chart The bullish wave count interprets the sharp December 2024 drop as subwave (c) of wave (iv) down. If this drop marked … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #trading setup #Elliott Wave The primary wave count is bearish. That wave count is based on an important assumption that ES has made a lasting top: ES-mini 8 hour chart Under that wave count ES may leak down to 5,920sh and then produce another rally up to the Red Box or start a … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #Elliott Wave #trading setup This chart shows you a 100% completed structure of the rally off the last major low made in Oct’2022: ES-mini Daily chart That means that bears have a setup to start a large corrective pullback that eventually should re-test the Oct’2022 lows: ES-mini Daily chart Those are targets/support levels … Read more
$ES $NQ #Elliott Wave #trading setup I count the low made by ES-mini in Aug 2024 as the bottom of the wave (iv) down: ES-mini 120 min chart Then off the last low made in Aug 2024 we should get the final (a) up, (b) down, (c) up structure of the final wave (v) up: … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #macro #rally top #bearish reversal I have a clean micro wave count that argues that the rally off the October 2022 low is completed: ES-mini 240 min chart When a five wave up rally gets completed we expect a large A-B-C down pullback that is supposed to re-test the low made by the … Read more
$NQ #NQ-mini #Elliott Wave #trading setup Three weeks ago I warned that NQ would top in the Red Box. So far it looks like it did top in the Red Box: NQ-mini 120 min chart NQ-made a top on November 11th and since then has made a lower high. A lover high is a sign … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #Elliott Wave #trading setup Bears pushed ES-min down to the Green Box following the black path we discussed last week: ES-mini Daily chart This s how that chart looks like this morning: ES-mini Daily chart Bulls produced a three day bounce off support of the Green Box. Bulls have their eyes on the … Read more
$SPX #S&P 500 #trading setup #MACRO I think its time to come back to 2009 and count the rally in the cash index S&P 500 off that low: SPX Daily chart, 2009 – 2015 The subwave (A) of wave (3) up topped in July 2015. The subwave (B) down of wave (3) up bottomed in … Read more
$Es #ES-mini #Elliott Wave #tradinhg setup Ther are two macro paths leading to the Red Box: ES-mini Daily chart The straightforward one is the green path. Note that bulls managed to overshoot a psychologically strong level of resistance 6,000. When price overshoots strong round levels it almost always comes back down to re-test that level … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #Elliott Wave Bulls still have room to push ES higher to tag the Red Box (6,138 – 6,260): ES-mini Daily chart 6,000 – 6,011 a strong resistance that got broken, now should work as a micro support. Normally we expect the final push higher in a subwave (c) of wave (v) up should … Read more
$NQ #NQ #trading setup #Elliott Wave I count that push higher as a subwave c of wave v up that finishes an -a-b-c- up structure off the low made in early Aug 2024: NQ-mini 60 min chart NQ is about the to tag a strong 138.2% ext = 21,168: NQ-mini tick bar chart Watch 20,788.50 … Read more
$ES #ES #tradig setup #Elliott Wave On Monday we discussed two macro bullish scenarios: Es-mini Daily chart Back then I noted: “5,715 is a very important support because this is where a drop can complete a subwave -c- of wave (b) down. That bullish wave count allows bulls to start another leg up to the … Read more
$ES #ES #failed breakdown #Elliott Wave The ideal micro scenario is some strength into the Red Box this morning, rejection at the Red Box and then plunge on the election night to tag the Green Box followed by a strong rally: ES-mini 13,500 tick bar chart 5,725 is a strong support. That level got tested … Read more
$ES #ES #trading setup #Elliott Wave 5,715 is a very important support because this is where a drop can complete a subwave -c- of wave (b) down. That bullish wave count allows bulls to start another leg up to the Red Box. A break under 5,725 followed by a swift recovery back over that level … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #trading setup #Elliott Wave Yesterday ES stopped inches off the main support 5,725. I expect that support to get broken by the next leg down. This spiky move up looks suspicious to me and looks like a potential short setup: ES-mini tick bar charr 5,781 – 5,778 is the key support now. Break … Read more
$NQ #NQ-mini #Elliott Wave #trading setup Two days ago I shared that bearish path: NQ-mini Daily chart Bears have started that move down: NQ-mini 60 min chart Bears has just tagged the target 1 on the way down. Now we can expect some consolidation/pullback off 20,000 level. The wave count allows bears to drive price … Read more
#NQ $NQ #trading setup #Elliott Wave My preferred macro count argues that: NQ-mini Daily chart Let’s zoom-in to a 60 min chart: NQ-mini 60 min chart Bulls could squeeze here a nominal higher high to tag the upper Red Box. But I think the next big move is going to be a sharp drop down … Read more